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The Grand National Festival 2023 – Day 3 – Grand National Tips

Aintree Racecourse The Chair

Written By Rich Mawer

Rich has been in horse racing since a small boy growing up in Yorkshire and heading to the Malton open days. At University Rich shared a house with a bookmakers son for 3 years, in that time he learned how to read form, course stats, use speed ratings and price up a card. In 1996 Rich went full-time with his betting, then with the advent of Betfair in 2002 Rich switched to the exchanges, learning to trade and lay horses.

A frustrating day yesterday with no bet landing for us, especially with Grey Dawning coming down in the Sefton after being backed in to 5/1 from 10/1. She was clearly well fancied to go close and it is frustrating when that happens. 

Anyway onwards and upwards to the final day of the festival and in this post I will cover the three Grade 1’s of the day and I will write a separate post tomorrow morning with my picks for the Grand National itself.

1:45 Maghull Novices’ Chase – 2m

I know JonBon will be a short priced favourite for this race, especially after his 2nd to El Fabiolo in the Arkle and I backed him in that race too, but at the price I would prefer a small bet on NOTLONGTILLMAY in this race, the improvement he has shown since switching to fences puts him in with a strong claim in the race and I just feel he can put it up to the favourite. It will between the two of them at the end.

SELECTION: NOTLONGTILLMAY – 2pts to win at 5/1

Aintree Grand National

3:00 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – 2m 4f

A competitive renewal this year and Hermes Allen is attracting plenty of support to bounce back form a disappointing run in the Ballymore at the Festival, when well beaten by over 20 lengths by five Irish horses, none of which he faces in this race today. If he bounces back to the form he showed in the CHallow Hurdle at Newbury on New Year’s Eve when beating You Wear It Well by nearly 5 lengths, he will be hard to beat. Dark Raven is another who was flying before a couple of poor runs and he needs to regain some form, but his 6th in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham is certainly not a disgrace and he could certainly enjoy this flatter track and an slightly easier field. However the improver for me and the one I want to back is SPRINGWELL BAY who was 3rd in the Supreme Novices Trial at Cheltenham in November before winning a decent Class 2 Novice Hurdle at Ascot and following up again at Wetherby last month, so he is progressive and worth a go at this level. 

SELECTION: SPRINGWELL BAY – 1pt each way at 10/1

3:35 Liverpool Hurdle – 3m 

I have been a long time fan of Marie’s Rock but after backing her at Cheltenham and seeing such a poor run, I struggle to see her bouncing back here in what is a deep race. I also like Flooring Porter but again Sire Du Berlais dispatched him readily in the Stayer’s Hurdle at Cheltenham with Home By The Lee behind him. I have also backed Champ plenty of times in the past few years and he has just not been at his best this year and looked off the pace in the Long Walk on Boxing Day. He was also beaten by 22 lengths in this race last year by SIRE DU BERLAIS, so on all the form lines I think the safe option is with the latter.

SELECTION – SIRE DU BERLAIS – 2pts to win at 6/1

Enjoy the final day and if you have time check out my Lay Systems which have given me 3 lays per day this week. I have also been using my unique approach to trading that I share in my 6 Weeks Trading Training to maximise my profit each day and leverage the volumes of money going through Betfair.

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