Richard Mawer - Racing Profits

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Cheltenham Festival 2016

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – What Did We Learn Over Christmas ?

Well a busy Christmas period here and over in Ireland always starts to give us a few pointers for the festival and the picture for the Cheltenham Festival 2019 is starting to take shape.

Kempton Christmas Meeting Results

The two-day Kempton christmas meeting this year was marked by the fact that only one favourite won over the two days, and so probably threw up more questions than answers for the Festival. The unbeaten 
Buveur D’Air was beaten by stablemate, and one of my horses to follow, Verdana Blue. Although not the kind of performance you would want to see from the Champion Hurdle favourite, I am sure he will be back stronger for the run. Henderson has since confirmed that Verdana Blue will be heading to the Champion Hurdle, but she will not be the one for me at Cheltenham.

Don’t forget to check out my National Hunt Lay System for the jumps here – National Hunt Jumps Lay System

In the King George VI I had backed Thistlecrack against the favourite Might Bite and was confident that he would do the business as they turned in, only to see Clan Des Obeaux cruise up and take the race. I can’t have him for the Gold Cup though and this has thrown the market wide open.

It was a similar story on Day 2 at Kempton with Kalashnikov getting turned over at 4/6f in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase

Altior showed how dominant he is and won the Desert Orchid Chase by 19 lengths, to go to 16 races unbeaten and demonstrate why there will be little to worry about come the Queen Mother Chase in March.

Over at Chepstow, Elegant Escape went off the 3/1 favourite for the Welsh National and put in an impressive round of jumping to win. However, he is no Gold Cup winner and needs to improve by around 12lb to have any hope of competing in the big one. 

At Newbury on Saturday we saw the exciting Novice Champ win the Challow Hurdle, although he will no doubt end up in the Ballymore on Day 2 at the Festival, he certainly looks to have the pace to drop to 2 miles.

Want to learn how to trade on the Betfair re-race markets ? Check out my 6 Weeks Trading Training Course

Irish Meeting Results Over Christmas

On Boxing Day the highlight at Leopardstown was the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase over 2m 1f and it was won impressively by Le Richebourg who had been dropped back in trip and looks like a real contender for The Arkle. 

A couple of surprise results were to see Willie Mullins hotpots Getabird and Footpad both get turned over. However the way Aramon won the Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown by 10 lengths was very impressive, with a lovely burst of speed, and it would be no surprise to see him head to the Supreme Novices at the Festival. 

On Friday Apple’s Jade made it three wins from three for the season by taking the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and I hope she heads for the Mares’ Hurdle at the Festival, where she can make amends for this year’s poor run. 

Today at Leopardstown threw up more surprises, none more so than to see last seasons talking horse Samcro disappoint in the Ryanair Hurdle, finishing back in 5th as the 6/4f. The winner Sharjah proved his beating of Faugheen at Punchestown in November was no fluke and the way he was driven clear from the last to beat some decent rivals puts him in the frame for the Champion Hurdle in March.

Don’t forget to check out my National Hunt Lay System for the jumps here – National Hunt Jumps Lay System

Willie Mullins had 5 winners today at Leopardstown and Limerick, so the yard is flying and with Gordon Elliott also hitting form, the Irish will have a strong hand by the time the Cheltenham Festival 2019 arrives.

York Ebor Festival

Are You On The Ascot Acca ? Value or Not ?

Well it is the evening before Royal Ascot, the best flat meeting in the world, in my opinion.

This year has the added spice of five short priced favourites running on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, but what is the best way to get some value out of these ? A 5 horse Ascot Acca seems to be the way most punters are going – so lets look at each horse and the races they are running in and see if this is a realistic bet and what price we could get on the bet 🙂

  1. Tuesday – 2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes – 13. RIBCHESTER – Current Odds – 4/5
  2. Tuesday – 4:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes – 2. CHURCHILL – Current Odds – 4/6
  3.  Thursday – 4:20 – Gold Cup – 4. ORDER OF ST GEORGE – Current Odds – Evens
  4.  Friday – 3:40 – Commonwealth Cup – 3. CARVAGGIO – Current Odds – 5/4
  5.  Friday – 4:20 – Coronation Stakes – 12. WINTER – Current Odds – 4/7

Don’t forget I will be sharing all of my personal back bets over Royal Ascot this week with my email subscribers on – Racing Profits Email Selection Service each day. After 4 winners from 6 bets last week, we are flying.

So let’s take a look at each race and the chances of them. Personally I feel that two of them will let the bet down.

Ribchester – Queen Anne Stakes

Richard Fahey’s colt Ribchester won the Lockinge at Newbury by nearly 4 lengths beating Lightning Spear who is currently 2nd favourite for this. I can not see that from being turned around and I know people will say that the faster ground could catch him out, but he is so versatile when it comes to conditions and his close 3rd to The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on fast ground last summer (less than half a length) would be more than solid enough form to win this. Banker.

Churchill – St James’s Palace Stakes

Unbeaten in his past 7 outings he rightly heads the market, but I actually fancy Barney Roy in this, to reverse the 2000 Guineas form. Barney Roy took a keen hold at the start and stumbled badly on the downhill part of the dip at Newmarket but stayed on well up the hill to the finish to only finish a length behind Churchill. Ascot will suit his running style and I feel Churchill is vulnerable, to him or even Thunder Snow who chased him home in the Irish 2000 Guineas, on soft ground, he will improve for the faster conditions. If the Acca gets through this race intact then it could well be on.

Order Of St George – Gold Cup

Another who I feel is vulnerable is the short priced Order Of St George. Yes, he ran a cracking race to win last year’s Gold Cup by 3 lengths beating Mizzou but he has hardly set the world alight since then. This is a better race than that, with the likes of Henry II stakes winner Big Orange in fine form and Simple Verse in opposition. He has been targeting the defence of his crown, but I could not take evens on him.

Carvaggio – Commonwealth Cup

Aidan O’Brien describes him as one of the fastest he has ever seen and Carvaggio looked unstoppable with each run as a 2yo. He has just had the one run this season at Naas in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, which he duly won by an easy 5 lengths. There are a couple of contenders in this, with Clive Cox’s Harry Angel and Charlie Appleby’s Blue Point, but I feel they will be fighting it out for the minor honours behind Carvaggio. Banker.

Winter – Coronation Stakes

I find Winter difficult to oppose in this field and the manner in which she built on her 1000 Guineas win in May, to win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh, winning easily, with the nearest pursuer nearly 5 lengths back, I cannot see the likes of Dabyah having enough in the locker to get to her. Only heavy rain could dent her chances in this race. Banker.

How to play the Ascot Acca ?

Unfortunately there do not seem to be any bookmakers offering “ACCA Insurance” on this bet, if any of the legs don’t win – but you can get best price of 19.17/1 on the bet from Unibet and Sky are offering 18.4/1 on the bet – so it may be worth a small investment to keep your interest across the week.

Remember that you can join my Email Selection Service and find out all the personal bets I am placing at Royal Ascot this week, as I share them with my subscribers each day – Click here to join – Racing Profits Email Selection Service

[VIDEO] Secret To Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2017

I recorded this video How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National a few years ago for my You Tube Channel. However, the statistics we use to narrow down the field to the big race today, are just as effective now.

Take your time to watch the video through and work your way through the field and make yourself a shortlist of the main contenders.


As you can see the key is to use the wealth of historical data, race trends and statistics to narrow down the field from 40 horses to the key contenders for the race each year. This is my favourite method to approach the race each year and some years I have had a list of 6 horses with four of them filling the top 4 places. So it is worth the effort.

Here are my Top 10 Tips for Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2017 :

1. Weight – Look at the Top Weight – Winners generally carry less than 11st 1lb. Over the past 30 years there have only been two winners to carry more. Don’t Push It in 2010 and Neptune Collonges in 2012. Minimum Weight of 10 st – Only 2 winners in the past 25 years have carried the minimum 10 st – so again you can safely exclude any horses on minimum weight.
2. Age – The sweet spot for a winner’s age is between 8 – 12yrs old. All of the past 25 winners have fallen in this age group. Over the past 5 years the race has been dominated by 10 / 11 yo. Avoid Younger horses of 6 / 7 yrs old, as they do not tend to have the experience or stamina to win the race. So dismiss all horses under 8yrs old or older than 12yrs old.
3. Sex – The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 – so avoid female horses.
4. Stamina – Proven stamina – the past 20 winners have all won a race over 3m or more in that season. Even Mon Mome, the 100/1 winner in 2009 had won a race over 3m in December 2008.
5. Experience – Naturally horses with more experience do well at Aintree, as the jumping test demands it. All of the last 25 winners have run at least 10 times over fences before competing in the Grand National. Check back in the horse form and make sure they have at least 10 chase runs.
6. Greys – Only 2 grey horses in the history of the Grand National have won the race. The last was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
7. Blinkers – In the past 40 yrs only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. Comply or Die in 2008 and Earth Summit in 1998. So avoid horses with blinkers.
8. Odds – The market tends to get the race correct. Particularly when there has been little rain and the ground is good. The big priced winners tend to come when the ground is soft and it becomes a real stamina test. Focus on the 7/1 – 16/1 price range in the market – 17 winners from the past 25 years have come from this price range.
NOTE: This stat has been overturned in the past 3 years, although 2 of those years were on softer ground – with Neptune Collonges in 2012 at 33/1, Auroras Encore 2013 at 66/1 and Pineau De Re in 2014 at 25/1. So the odds on the 2015 winner to be over 16/1 in the market are slim, particualarly with the forecast Good ground.
9. One Win – Only 1 horse of the last 25 winners have recorded more than one win in the season, that was Ballabriggs the 2011 winner. So you can safely discount horses with multiple wins that season.
10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the Grand National more than once, so any returning winners can be discounted from your shortlist.
So go through the list of runners tomorrow afternoon or on Saturday morning and put a line through each of them if they do not fit the criteria. Be ruthless and see what you have left on your list at the end. You will be surprised.

My Top 5 2017 Shortlist

Here are the horses that I have on my shortlist, after going through this process.

Definitly Red 12/ 1 – A well supported Favourite for this years race and has won over 3m 2f and 3m this season – so plenty of stamina.

Blaklion 14/1 – He is all about stamina and finished 2nd to Vieux Lion Rouge and 3rd to Definitly Red this season. Weighted to reverse these results.

Vieux Lion Rouge 14/1  – another confirmed stayer after winning over 3m 4f and 3m 2f on his last two starts.

Cause Of Causes 18/1 – won over 3m 6f at the Cheltenham Festival in the Glenfarclas Cross Country – so has experience of the fences.

Highland Lodge 28/1 – won the Becher Chase here in 2015 and then finsished 2nd to Vieux Lion Rouge here in December.

Enjoy the big race

Attacking Day 1 of The Aintree Festival

I love the Aintree Festival nearly as much as I do The Cheltenham Festival, it is not as pure for the jumps racing fan, but the atmosphere and the mix of great Grade 1 action with the unique Merseyside crowd can not help but grab your attention and not let go until the big race on Saturday, the Grand National.

As a betting medium, it is the chance for some of those big bets we placed at Cheltenham to make amends, for just missing out and also a chance to take on some of the short priced favourites who performed well at the Festival but, after a long season, can often flop here. Again, course knowledge is so important, and Aintree is a pancake flat track, with the Mildmay course, where the majority of the races are held, being quite a tight oval. So if your horse did not handle Cheltenham then it can often bounce back three weeks later at Aintree.

Remember, if you want to know my personal back bets each day you can join the Racing Profits Email Selection Service where I share them exclusively.

Getting A Good Start On Day 1

I find Day 1 to be one of the best betting days at Aintree, with four Grade 1 races. This year is no exception and there are some short priced favourites heading out today, after strong runs at Cheltenham.

First Lieutenant and Bryan Cooper (no 2) winning The Betfred Bowl Chase from Menorah (blue) Pic Dan Abraham - racingfotos.com  Aintree 4.4.13Top Notch is interesting in the 1:45pm after his 2nd to Yorkhill in the JLT, but Frodon has been laid out for this race and missed Cheltenham all together and the super consistent Cloudy Dream has plenty to offer in opposition, so it is no cake walk for the favourite.  It is hard to oppose Defi Du Seil in the Juvenile Hurdle at 2:20pm, who we backed at the Festival in the Triumph Hurdle and this looks a weaker race than that, so he should win this going away, although at the price I would not get involved.

The Betway Bowl at 2:50pm is a really interesting race, with Cue Card returning after a fall in the Gold Cup, like he did to win this last year, but he was not going well at the time and I have gone for another bet in this race at far more attractive odds.

Another short priced favourite in the Aintree Hurdle at 3:25pm in Buveur D’Air, an impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle but with questions to answer, as far as this step up to 2m 4f and I am going to have a small bet on THE NEW ONE who does not have the pace for 2m at the very top level and I had hoped would be sent to the World Hurdle at The Festival, but this trip will really suit at a course he loves.

I have sent out my email with my two main bets of Day 1 on to my subscribers, if you want to know my personal back bets each day you can join the Racing Profits Email Selection Service where I share them exclusively.
 

 

Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Day 4 – Gold Cup Day


The final day is the climax of the week at Prestbury Park and there can be few more emotive days in sport than Cheltenham Gold Cup day. The day starts with the Triumph Hurdle, then the County Hurdle, the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and finally the Gold Cup itself. The following video runs through the main statistics for the big three races on the final day.

 

As you have seen from the previous videos my main angle of attack is to narrow down the field in the big races of the week and the final day is no exception.

The Triumph Hurdle – 2m 1f – 4yo Only

Day 4 of the festival kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle. The main thing to note is that the Triumph hurdle is for 4yr olds only, it used to be a real lottery of a race, but the form has settled down recently and the winner has come from the top 4 in the market over the past 7 years. Countrywide Flame was the exception in 2012 who won at 33/1.

  • Focus on the top of the market – Top 4 or 5 horses.
  • Recent Form – 16 of the past 18 winners had won their previous race. Again Countrywide Flame came 3rd in 2012 in his previous run.
  • Rating – The last 7 winners have all been rated 138+ by the BHA.
  • Ex-Flat Horses do well in the Triumph Hurdle with the last 14 winners all having had a flat career as opposed to being National Hunt bred horses.
  • Recently started hurdling – 7 of the past 8 winner did not make their hurdling debut before the December prior to Cheltenham.
  • Trials Races – The Adonis Hurdle at Kempton at the end of February has thrown up 5 of the last 6 winners of the Triumph Hurdle which is a strong trend – so this should be your starting point.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – 3m – 4yo+

The 3rd race on the card on the last day is the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3m. Similar to the Ryanair CHase it has only been recently added to the festival, when it was extended to a fourth day. However there are some strong trends already emerging for the race:

    • Cheltenham Form – 6 of the past 7 winners have run at Cheltenham before. 4 of them had won a race at Cheltenham.
    • Proven Stamina – 5 of the past 7 winners had run in 3m or more races prior to the race.
    • Age – 7yr+ is a positive – as a horse matures it develops more stamina and this is seen in the results.
    • Top of Betting – 6 of the past 7 winners have been in the top 5 in the betting.
    • Recent Winning Form – 7 of the past 8 winners have won ort come 2nd on their previous outing.
    • All 8 winners in the race so far have been out over hurdles at least 3 times prior to the race.
    • Trials Races – There are three main trials races which act as good guides to the Albert Bartlett – all are run at Cheltenham – The Hyde Novices Hurdle over 2m 5f in November has thrown up 4 Albert Bartlett Winners in 7 years. In December is the Bristol Novices Hurdle over 3m which has given us 2 winners and 3 placed efforts so far. Finally in January the Classic Novices Hurdle over 2m 4f has thrown up 2 recent winners.

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The Cheltenham Gold Cup – 3m 2f – 5yo+

The climax to the entire Festival is undoubtedly the Gold Cup on Friday afternoon. It is the ultimate stamina test and the primary consideration has to be proven ability at the highest level and winning at the highest grade – something all the last 13 winners had including the ill-fated Synchronised from 2012 who had won the Grade 1 Lexus Chase in Ireland as well as the Welsh National at Chepstow. Other important factors to consider are:

  • Age – No horse older than 10yrs has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1969. Even 10yr olds have only seen 1 winner in the past 18 yrs.
  • Experience – No Novice Chaser has won the race since 1974 and only 1 winner since 1963 has had less than 6 starts over fences. It is all about proven ability.
  • Previous Cheltenham Experience – 9 out of the last 11 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in previous festivals.
  • Top 3 in the betting – Until 2012 the previous 11 winners had come from the Top 3 in the betting.
  • Rating – 11 of the last 12 winners have had a BHA rating of 166+
  • Trials Races – The King George VI Chase on Boxing Day at Kempton is the key race – throwing up 9 of the last 12 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The Betfair Chase at Haydock in November has also thrown up 3 winners and also the previous year’s Gold Cup has thrown up 3 winners.

I hope that helps you to narrow down the fields on the final day of the Festival and find a few winners.

Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham races selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.

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