Richard Mawer - Racing Profits

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10 Stats To Help You Find The Winner Of The Grand National 2019

I recorded this video How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National a few years ago for my You Tube Channel. However, the statistics we use to narrow down the field to the big race today, are just as effective now.

Take your time to watch the video through and work your way through the field and make yourself a shortlist of the main contenders.

As you can see the key is to use the wealth of historical data, race trends and statistics to narrow down the field from 40 horses to the key contenders for the race each year. This is my favourite method to approach the race each year and some years I have had a list of 6 horses with four of them filling the top 4 places. So it is worth the effort.

Top 10 for Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2019

1. Weight – Look at the Top Weight – Winners generally carry less than 11st 1lb. Over the past 30 years there have only been two winners to carry more. Don’t Push It in 2010 and Neptune Collonges in 2012. Minimum Weight of 10 st – Only 2 winners in the past 25 years have carried the minimum 10 st – so again you can safely exclude any horses on minimum weight.

2. Age – The sweet spot for a winner’s age is between 8 – 12yrs old. All of the past 25 winners have fallen in this age group. Over the past 5 years the race has been dominated by 10 / 11 yo. Avoid Younger horses of 6 / 7 yrs old, as they do not tend to have the experience or stamina to win the race. So dismiss all horses under 8yrs old or older than 12yrs old.

3. Sex – The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 – so avoid female horses.

4. Stamina – Proven stamina – the past 20 winners have all won a race over 3m or more in that season. Even Mon Mome, the 100/1 winner in 2009 had won a race over 3m in December 2008.

5. Experience – Naturally horses with more experience do well at Aintree, as the jumping test demands it. All of the last 25 winners have run at least 10 times over fences before competing in the Grand National. Check back in the horse form and make sure they have at least 10 chase runs.

6. Greys – Only 2 grey horses in the history of the Grand National have won the race. The last was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.

7. Blinkers – In the past 40 yrs only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. Comply or Die in 2008 and Earth Summit in 1998. So avoid horses with blinkers.

8. Odds – The market tends to get the race correct. Particularly when there has been little rain and the ground is good. The big priced winners tend to come when the ground is soft and it becomes a real stamina test. Focus on the 7/1 – 16/1 price range in the market – 17 winners from the past 25 years have come from this price range.

NOTE: This stat has been overturned in the past 3 years, although 2 of those years were on softer ground – with Neptune Collonges in 2012 at 33/1, Auroras Encore 2013 at 66/1 and Pineau De Re in 2014 at 25/1. So the odds on the 2015 winner to be over 16/1 in the market are slim, particualarly with the forecast Good ground.

9. One Win – Only 1 horse of the last 25 winners have recorded more than one win in the season, that was Ballabriggs the 2011 winner. So you can safely discount horses with multiple wins that season.

10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the Grand National more than once, so any returning winners can be discounted from your shortlist.

So go through the list of runners and put a line through each of them if they do not fit the criteria. Be ruthless and see what you have left on your list at the end. You will be surprised.

My Top 5 2019 Shortlist

Here are the horses that I have on my shortlist, after going through this process.

Rathvinden9/1 – Has been kept fresh for this race with just the one run in February at Fairyhouse, winning over 3m 1f beating a decent Grade 3 field including Alpha Des Obeaux. The pick of Ruby Walsh and tops my list of selections for the race.

Vintage Clouds16/1 – fits all the stats and from Sue Smith’s yard who won the race in 2013 with Auroras Encore. He won over 3m 1f at Haydock in November and has been taken care of since then, being pulled up at Chepstow in the Welsh National before heading to the Festival at Cheltenham and finishing a good 2nd. A great each way bet to place.

Rock The Kasbah18/1 – three runs this season including a win over 3m 3f at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 Chase in November. The choice of champion jockey Richard Johnson and has a great chance. Another good each way bet.

Dounikos28/1 – Not the most reliable but he fits all the stats of a winner and the way he won over 3m 4f at Punchestown in February would give him a great shout in this race, as he looked to be getting stronger the further he went. At the price he has to be worth a look for a place.

Walk In The Mill28/1 – winner of the Becher Chase in December over the National fences, he is a strong jumper and another who has plenty of stamina. He fits all the stats and looks a great each way bet too.

Of the others Jury Duty fitted all the stats apart from winning twice in a season, but he is in strong form and I would not put anyone off backing him.

Enjoy the big race

Aintree Grand National 2019 – Day 3

Well another good day yesterday with LOSTINTRANSLATION landing for us at 100/30 in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase and showing why I regard him has one of the top novices of the season.

In this post I will cover the main three Grade 1’s of Day 3 at Aintree and then tomorrow I will post a separate post with my selections for the Grand National itself. If you watch the video below you will see the tactic I use to narrow down the field of 40 horses to the most likely winners of the race, this is a technique I have used over the years to find the winner on multiple occasions. So watch and enjoy 🙂

VIDEO | Picking The Winner Of The Grand National 2019

But before the big race we need to focus on the three Grade 1’s of the final day.

2:25 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle

I am going to keep faith with my Supreme Novice pick ANGELS BREATH who made a mistake three out when going strongly and never recovered. This step up in trip to 2m 4f will really suit and I can see him bouncing back.

RP TIP: ANGELS BREATH – 2pts to win at 3/1

3:00 Maghull Novices’ Chase

Despite winning the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham in November, LALOR never got going in the Arkle at the Festival. However, he can make amends here on a course where he has run twice and won twice, including the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle last year.

RP TIP: LALOR – 2pts to win at 7/2

3:40 Ryanair Stayers Hurdle

Although she is the obvious one I have to go with APPLE’S JADE to re-find her form after her disappointing run in the Champion Hurdle at the Festival, which was too bad to be true. The step back up to 3m will suit and with conditions in her favour, it is hard to see her getting beaten by this field.

RP TIP: APPLE’S JADE – 3pts to win at 7/4

I will post around lunchtime tomorrow with my picks for the Grand National, if you have not managed to narrow the field down by watching the video and using what I show in there.

Aintree Ladies Day – Day 2

Well a great start to the Aintree Grand National Festival with our first winner of the week in PENTLAND HILLS – who won the Juvenile Hurdle in fine style, battling all the way to the line to deny Fakir D’oudairies. Unfortunately the ground turned against verdana Blue and she was withdrawn, although I felt we were justified in taking on Buveur D’Air who was again turned over by Supasundae in the Aintree Hurdle.

On to Aintree Ladies Day today and four more Grade 1’s to look forward to.

2:20 Top Novices’ Hurdle

I am going with the progressive PRECIOUS CARGO based on the ground conditions and the fact that both his victories being on soft ground since moving to Nicky Henderson from Lucinda Russell, including an 8 length win at Sandown last month. I think both Itchy Feet and Aramon may struggle with the conditions, despite being higher rated horses on what they have shown so far.

RP TIP: PRECIOUS CARGO -2pts to win at 9/2

2:50 Mildmay Novices’ Chase

An interesting race that throws together the winner of the RSA Chase in Topofthegame against LOSTINTRANSLATION who was a decent 2nd in the JLT Novices’ Chase. I am going for Colin Tizzard’s charge to come out on top in this race today as he has only been beaten by Defi Du Seuil this year and I feel that is stronger form than the RSA form.

RP TIP: LOSTINTRANSLATION – 2pts to win at 10/3

3:25 JLT Chase (Melling Chase)

I feel conditions have just fallen perfectly for POLITOLOGUE and his 2nd to the mighty Altior in the Queen Mother Chase at the Festival in soft conditions, is the best form on show here. He won this race last year beating Min in similar conditions and with doubts about Waiting Patiently’s form, he is the natural choice for me.

RP TIP: POLITOLOGUE – 2pts to win at 5/2

4:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle

A wide open renewal of the Sefton Novices’ this year and although I like Champ and we backed him at the Festival in the Ballymore, where he went down by 2 lengths, I really liked the performance of his stablemate DOWNTOWN GETAWAY over the extended 2m 5f at Ascot in January when he beat some good horses to win in the final strides. The step up in trip will suit and at the prices I would prefer an each way bet on him.

RP TIP: DOWNTOWN GETAWAY – 1pt each way at 12/1

Enjoy Aintree Ladies Day and get ready for tomorrow and all the fun of Grand National Day.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @RacingProfits !!

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1

Well the dust has only just settled on Cheltenham and we are straight into Aintree and the build up to Saturday’s Grand National. As usual I will be focusing my efforts each day on the big races and finding you some winners, so make sure you check the blog each day for my latest post and also follow me on Facebook Racing Profits Page and Twitter @RacingProfits

The opening day of the Aintree Grand National Festival has no less than four Grade 1 races, so plenty to get stuck into.

1:45 Mainfesto Novices’ Chase

I am going to take on La Bague Au Roi, the favourite in the opener, with GLEN FORSA who was a convincing winner of the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Sandown, beating Kalashnikov by no less than 19 lengths. He was unlucky in the Arkle at the Festival when a rare mistake saw hum unseat Jonathan Burke and I can see him making amends here on a flatter tracker which will suit him.

RP TIP: GLEN FORSA – 2pts to win at 7/2

2:20 Doom Bar Juvenile Hurdle

I am sticking with the Triumph Hurdle winner PENTLAND HILLS who won despite making an early mistake in the race and it only being his 2nd start over hurdles. I could see plenty more improvement to come and he will love the Aintree track.

RP TIP: PENTLAND HILLS – 2pts to win at 2/1

2:50 Betway Bowl Chase

A competitive renewal this year and I like the chances of BRISTOL DE MAI after his 3rd in the Gold Cup and winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, he is the one to put it to the two at the top of the market. He can make up for finishing 2nd to Might Bite in last year’s race.

RP TIP: BRISTOL DE MAI – 2pts to win at 11/4

3:25 Aintree Hurdle

The prohibitive price of Buveur D’Air means I will be backing his stablemate VERDANA BLUE, who proved she is in superb form when winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, beating the favourite. She loves flat tracks and the conditions will be far more suited than in the Champion Hurdle. I would rather take 12/1 on her.

RP TIP: VERDANA BLUE – 1pt each way at 12/1

Enjoy Day 1 and don’ t forget to check back here tomorrow for my round up of Day 2’s action and another four Grade 1’s

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Gold Cup Day

Well a nice start to the day yesterday with DEFI DU SEUIL adding another +6pts to the week by winning the JLT and confirming the form over Lostintranslation, as predicted. Although we gave four back with Monalee finishing 4th in the Ryanair, although not as disappointing as Footpad who was well beaten. Top Notch was a big price and did not perform as I had hoped, so hands up for that one and Paisley Park proved the form spot on.

On to Day 4 of the Cheltenham Festival 2019 and the big race of the season, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Make sure you watch the video below to find out how to narrow down the field in the big races on the final day of the Festival and finish on a high.

VIDEO | Finding Winners On Gold Cup Day

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

The final day of the Festival kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle and a race I have had plenty of luck with over the years. My gut feeling is that Sir Erec is too short and especially against his stablemate GARDENS OF BABYLON who is the pick of Barry Geraghty for this race. He was only 6 lengths behind the favourite at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle and the addition of first time cheekpieces plus the more testing conditions should suit him and could see him reverse those placings.

RP TIP: GARDENS OF BABYLON – 1pt each way at 11/1

2:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The Albert Bartlett is a 3m Novices’ race and with all the rain we have had this week, it is going to take some getting, as we saw yesterday with the Stayers Hurdle over the same trip. As the betting suggests, this is wide open this year but I really like, despite the concern over Gordon Elliott’s stable form, is COMMANDER OF FLEET, who showed real improvement when stepped up from 2m to 2m 6f to win a Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown at the start of last month. He has plenty of stamina and this further step up should bring out further improvement.

RP TIP: COMMANDER OF FLEET – 1pt each way at 7/1

3:30 Gold Cup Chase

A real test of horse and rider, the Gold Cup is the pinnacle of jumps racing and only the very best compete in it, let alone win it. So the likes of Kauto Star and Best Mate who won the race multiple times, are few and far between. However, last year’s winner NATIVE RIVER has been my bet for the race since I saw the forecast for the week. He will love conditions and has the proven stamina to follow up last years victory.

RP TIP: NATIVE RIVER – 2pts to win at 9/2

So that is it, the Festival is over for another year. Enjoy the final day and look forward to Aintree next month, when I will be back blogging each day of the Grand National Festival.

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