Well a shame to lose Elixir De Nutz from the Supreme, just after I had posted, but that left us three solid bets and ROKSANA delivered at 10/1 for us, even if it was a shade fortunate, with the favourite going well and coming down at the last.
VIDEO | Finding Winners On Day 2 Of The Cheltenham Festival
On to Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival and just two races I am getting involved in today.
1:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
A competitive race again this year but BATTLEOVERDOYEN has done little wrong in three runs this season, and went into my notebook after beating Sams Profile at Naas at the start of January. A race that Gordon Elliott targets and won with Samcro last year.
RP TIP: BATTLEOVERDOYEN – 2pts to win at 7/2
2:10 RSA Novices’ Chase
I am sticking with SANTINI who will love conditions and be able to make amends for his Boxing Day 3rd in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton where he seemed to get caught out by the sharp track and this test will be perfect for him.
RP TIP: SANTINI – 2pts to win at 3/1
3:30 Champion Chase
I can’t oppose ALTIOR but I can’t back him at 2/5 either, so I will watch and enjoy him romping to victory.
Well it is that time of year again, when we all head to Prestbury Park for the Cheltenham Festival 2019.
This year I will be analysing the key Grade 1’s each day and putting up some tips for you all to follow for FREE. I may be back later in the year with my backing service, but for now I am happy to share my thoughts and bets each day of the Festival 2019.
VIDEO| Finding Winners On Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival 2019
I hope you watched the video above and it gave you insight into how to use statistical analysis and key trial races to take note of when making your selections.
The big factor this year is the ground which is going to be soft, with more rain due and a storm approaching on Tuesday from the west, conditions will deteriorate further through the week, so look for horse who are proven to perform in the testing conditions. Here is my view on the four Grade 1’s of Day 1.
1:30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Well last year we kicked off the festival in style with our bet Summerville Boy beating Kalashnikov at 9/1 to give us a nice winner. In fact I have picked the winner of the Supreme 3 times from the last 6 years.
If you follow me on Twitter @racingprofits – you will know how much I like ELIXIR DE NUTZ and he followed a course and distance win here in December with an even more impressive win on soft ground at Sandown in the Tolworth Hurdle beating the well fancied Rathhill. He is proven here and in the conditions, with further improvement likely he is far too big a price.
RP TIP: Go nuts on ELIXIR DE NUTZ – 1pt each way at 8/1
2:10 The Arkle
A super-competitive renewal this year and one in which you could make a case for the majority of the field, but I am going to have a small interest in HARDLINE who loves soft / heavy conditions, with all of his best performances coming on this ground. The stand out performance is his beating of Getabird on Boxing Day at Limerick, finding plenty over 2m 3f and proving doubts about his stamina wrong. He is dropped back to 2m here and will make it a test with Davy Russell back in the saddle.
RP TIP: Go in hard on HARDLINE – 1pt to win at 5/1
3:30 Champion Hurdle
Although I backed Verdana Blue in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, I am a massive BUVEUR D’AIR fan and the way he beat Samcro in the Fighting Fifth and Vision Des Flos at Sandown, plus conditions being perfect for him back here, I am happy to take on Apple’s Jade with him. I backed her last year in the Mares’ Hurdle and thought she was very disappointing, so could not trust her again here.
RP TIP: BUVEUR D’AIR – 2pts to win
4:10 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle
A race dominated by Willie Mullins and again he has 5 runners of the 10 this year and it hard to get away from the unbeaten Benie Des Dieux who won the race last year beating the aforementioned Apple’s Jade before heading to Punchestown to win the Mares’ Champion Hurdle. She has not been seen since, mainly due to the ground conditions, but the rain has come and the fact that Ruby Walsh has picked her ahead of Limini or any of the other Mullins entries.
However, I was impressed by the run of ROKSANA at Sandown behind Buveur D’Air on her reappearance and if that gets her back near the form she showed when 2nd to Santini in the Sefton Novices’ at Aintree last April, she could give the favourite something to think about and could well be in the mix.
RP TIP: ROKSANA – 1pt each way at 10/1
Enjoy Day 1 and don’t forget to visit www.racingprofits.net for more free videos and tips on profitable betting.
Well a busy Christmas period here and over in Ireland always starts to give us a few pointers for the festival and the picture for the Cheltenham Festival 2019 is starting to take shape.
Kempton Christmas Meeting Results
The two-day Kempton christmas meeting this year was marked by the fact that only one favourite won over the two days, and so probably threw up more questions than answers for the Festival. The unbeaten Buveur D’Air was beaten by stablemate, and one of my horses to follow, Verdana Blue. Although not the kind of performance you would want to see from the Champion Hurdle favourite, I am sure he will be back stronger for the run. Henderson has since confirmed that Verdana Blue will be heading to the Champion Hurdle, but she will not be the one for me at Cheltenham.
In the King George VI I had backed Thistlecrack against the favourite Might Bite and was confident that he would do the business as they turned in, only to see Clan Des Obeaux cruise up and take the race. I can’t have him for the Gold Cup though and this has thrown the market wide open.
It was a similar story on Day 2 at Kempton with Kalashnikov getting turned over at 4/6f in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase
Altior showed how dominant he is and won the Desert Orchid Chase by 19 lengths, to go to 16 races unbeaten and demonstrate why there will be little to worry about come the Queen Mother Chase in March.
Over at Chepstow, Elegant Escape went off the 3/1 favourite for the Welsh National and put in an impressive round of jumping to win. However, he is no Gold Cup winner and needs to improve by around 12lb to have any hope of competing in the big one.
At Newbury on Saturday we saw the exciting Novice Champ win the Challow Hurdle, although he will no doubt end up in the Ballymore on Day 2 at the Festival, he certainly looks to have the pace to drop to 2 miles.
On Boxing Day the highlight at Leopardstown was the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase over 2m 1f and it was won impressively by Le Richebourg who had been dropped back in trip and looks like a real contender for The Arkle.
A couple of surprise results were to see Willie Mullins hotpots Getabird and Footpad both get turned over. However the way Aramon won the Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown by 10 lengths was very impressive, with a lovely burst of speed, and it would be no surprise to see him head to the Supreme Novices at the Festival.
On Friday Apple’s Jade made it three wins from three for the season by taking the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown and I hope she heads for the Mares’ Hurdle at the Festival, where she can make amends for this year’s poor run.
Today at Leopardstown threw up more surprises, none more so than to see last seasons talking horse Samcro disappoint in the Ryanair Hurdle, finishing back in 5th as the 6/4f. The winner Sharjah proved his beating of Faugheen at Punchestown in November was no fluke and the way he was driven clear from the last to beat some decent rivals puts him in the frame for the Champion Hurdle in March.
Willie Mullins had 5 winners today at Leopardstown and Limerick, so the yard is flying and with Gordon Elliott also hitting form, the Irish will have a strong hand by the time the Cheltenham Festival 2019 arrives.
Well it is the evening before Royal Ascot, the best flat meeting in the world, in my opinion.
This year has the added spice of five short priced favourites running on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, but what is the best way to get some value out of these ? A 5 horse Ascot Acca seems to be the way most punters are going – so lets look at each horse and the races they are running in and see if this is a realistic bet and what price we could get on the bet 🙂
Tuesday – 2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes – 13. RIBCHESTER – Current Odds – 4/5
Tuesday – 4:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes – 2. CHURCHILL – Current Odds – 4/6
Thursday – 4:20 – Gold Cup – 4. ORDER OF ST GEORGE – Current Odds – Evens
Friday – 3:40 – Commonwealth Cup – 3. CARVAGGIO – Current Odds – 5/4
Don’t forget I will be sharing all of my personal back bets over Royal Ascot this week with my email subscribers on – Racing Profits Email Selection Service each day. After 4 winners from 6 bets last week, we are flying.
So let’s take a look at each race and the chances of them. Personally I feel that two of them will let the bet down.
Ribchester – Queen Anne Stakes
Richard Fahey’s colt Ribchester won the Lockinge at Newbury by nearly 4 lengths beating Lightning Spear who is currently 2nd favourite for this. I can not see that from being turned around and I know people will say that the faster ground could catch him out, but he is so versatile when it comes to conditions and his close 3rd to The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on fast ground last summer (less than half a length) would be more than solid enough form to win this. Banker.
Churchill – St James’s Palace Stakes
Unbeaten in his past 7 outings he rightly heads the market, but I actually fancy Barney Roy in this, to reverse the 2000 Guineas form. Barney Roy took a keen hold at the start and stumbled badly on the downhill part of the dip at Newmarket but stayed on well up the hill to the finish to only finish a length behind Churchill. Ascot will suit his running style and I feel Churchill is vulnerable, to him or even Thunder Snow who chased him home in the Irish 2000 Guineas, on soft ground, he will improve for the faster conditions. If the Acca gets through this race intact then it could well be on.
Order Of St George – Gold Cup
Another who I feel is vulnerable is the short priced Order Of St George. Yes, he ran a cracking race to win last year’s Gold Cup by 3 lengths beating Mizzou but he has hardly set the world alight since then. This is a better race than that, with the likes of Henry II stakes winner Big Orange in fine form and Simple Verse in opposition. He has been targeting the defence of his crown, but I could not take evens on him.
Carvaggio – Commonwealth Cup
Aidan O’Brien describes him as one of the fastest he has ever seen and Carvaggio looked unstoppable with each run as a 2yo. He has just had the one run this season at Naas in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, which he duly won by an easy 5 lengths. There are a couple of contenders in this, with Clive Cox’s Harry Angel and Charlie Appleby’s Blue Point, but I feel they will be fighting it out for the minor honours behind Carvaggio. Banker.
Winter – Coronation Stakes
I find Winter difficult to oppose in this field and the manner in which she built on her 1000 Guineas win in May, to win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh, winning easily, with the nearest pursuer nearly 5 lengths back, I cannot see the likes of Dabyah having enough in the locker to get to her. Only heavy rain could dent her chances in this race. Banker.
How to play the Ascot Acca ?
Unfortunately there do not seem to be any bookmakers offering “ACCA Insurance” on this bet, if any of the legs don’t win – but you can get best price of 19.17/1 on the bet from Unibet and Sky are offering 18.4/1 on the bet – so it may be worth a small investment to keep your interest across the week.