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Aintree Grand National

Finding The Winner Of The Haydock Grand National Trial 2016

With the clock ticking down until the 2016 Cheltenham Festival which is now less than a month away, we also had the weights revealed for this year’s Grand National on Tuesday, with Many Clouds having to carry top weight of 11st 10lb to defend his crown on 9th April. One race we all need to keep an eye on is tomorrow’s Grand National Trial at Haydock Park.

On Saturday, we’ll witness a trio of cracking showpieces including the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and Betfair Ascot Chase at Ascot, not to mention the race we’re concentrating on here – the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Aimed to give punters early clues as to who they should back in the major Aintree event itself which is two months away on April 9th, what we’ve seen in yesteryear is exactly NONE of the winners of the Grand National Trial going on to win the major event itself since 1980.

Saturday 20th February 2016 – Grand National Trial – Ascot

JUMP 1While drawing clues from the Grand National Trial has proved difficult in regards to selecting the Grand National winner thus far, finding the winner of the Trial event itself may prove a little easier.

Four times out of 13 Grand National Trial races, the winning horse had ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out and that is true of Kerry Lee’s Mountainous with the 11yo the shortest priced to succeed on Saturday afternoon.

Having beat off second-placed Firebird Flyer by two-and-three quarter lengths in the 3m5f110y Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on January 9th, Mountainous is around 7/2 to claim glory in the 2:40pm Grand National Trial.

Cloudy Too is second favourite with the bookies at the moment and boasts the benefit of having romped home round this very course in a 3m24y back on January 23rd.

Winning by 15 lengths on that occasion, Sue Smith’s 10yo should be able to handle himself this time around too.

Key Stats For The Grand National Trial

13 times out of 13 Grand National Trial races, the winning horse was UK trained
13 times out of 13 race, the winning horse had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12 times out of 13 races, the finning horse had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had finished in the top three last time out
11 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was aged 10 or younger
10 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had raced within the last seven weeks
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse returned a double-figure price in the betting
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse carried 11-0 or less
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse came from outside the top three in the betting
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was aged 9 or younger
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse finished in the top two last time out
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was rated 135 or higher
7 times out of 13 races, there’s been unplaced favourites
6 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won last time out
6 times out of 13 races, the winning horse went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was Irish-bred
4 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won by exactly 15 lengths
4 times out of 13 races, the winning horse ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won with 11-12 in weight
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was trained by Lucinda Russell
2 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was the favourite

Enjoy the race and don’t forget to comment below on your fancy.

Finding The Winner Of The Clarence House Chase 2016

A big weekend of racing coming up for us at Ascot and Haydock with a couple of horses running who I really fancy. I will focus on the Clarence House Chase in this article but make sure you check out the Racing Profits Email Selection Service if you want to know what I am betting on over the weekend and each day through the week.

Saturday 23rd January 2016 – Clarence House Chase – Ascot

Clarence House Chase AscotFirst run in 1989 when it was won by Desert Orchid, the race has always been a key trial for me, pointing to the likely winner of the Champion Chase at the Festival in March. Winners such as Master Minded, Spinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets have all gone on to win the Champion Chase.

Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times over recent years and is always a trainer to focus on. However, the strength of the race this year and lack of form for Vibrato Valtat, who finished nearly 8 lengths behind Sire De Grugy at Sandown in the Tingle Creek, make it hard to see him winning this year. It is a similar story for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race 3 times recently, although it is fantastic to see Captain Conan back in action, as I backed him in the Champion Chase in 2014, his last outing, and although he never traveled in the race, he was declared lame afterwards. However, after nearly 2 years off the track I can’t get involved with him.

Key Stats For The Clarence House Chase

13 of the past 13 winners have raced within the last 7 weeks
13 of the past 13 winners have been aged 9yrs or less
13 of the past 13 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
12 out of the last 13 have won over fences at 2m 1f or further
11 of the past 13 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting
9 of the past 13 winners have been French bred
9 of the past 13 winners won last time out

 

The above age stat is the main concern I have for the 10yo Sire De Grugy who has looked back near his best this season after some disappointing runs last year, including his 4th in the Champion Chase. He won the Tingle Creek and battled it out with Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. At the prices he would be my pick for this Saturday, but age may be against him.

Finally we have the short priced favourite Un De Sceaux who came down again last time out at Leopardstown when looking in command, it may well be the speed with which he attacks his fences that sometimes catches him out, but the stiff fences of Ascot could well be as big a test as the competition in the race. There is little doubt that with a clear round of jumping, he is the one to beat. But I would not be taking 8/11 on him.

Whichever way you go, enjoy the race and all the build up to the Festival over the coming weeks. Don’t forget to check out my Email Selection Service where I share my personal bets each day with my subscribers.