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PLanning A Profitable betting Strategy in 2016

2016 Haldon Gold Cup At Exeter – Race Anlaysis

PLanning A Profitable betting Strategy in 2016

Well it is rare to get such a decent race mid-week and the 2016 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter today is a real early season treat.

The market for today’s race is headed by Garde La Victoire who has a run under his belt already this season, with an emphatic win at Ffos Las last month in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. He is back over fences today and the main concern has to be his falls at Cheltenham and Aintree last term in Grade 1 company. However, prior to that he won three chases comfortably, so hopefully he will get a clear round today, but I could not be taking 7/4 on him.

Paul Nicholl’s targets this race and won it last year with Vibrato Valtat beating the likes of God’s Own, Sire De Grugy and Third Intention. He is pinning this year’s hopes on the 2015 Champion Chase winning Dodging Bullets who took his time to get back to fitness last season after an injury delayed his comeback. However, his final run at Sandown in the Celebration Chase, where he finished 3rd behind Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux was a sign that he was coming back to near his best and the break will have done him good.

Harry Fry’s Presenting Arms is becoming a nearly horse and creeping up the handicap, now running off a mark of 145. He will be race fit after runs at Market Rasen and Cheltenham already this season, both finishing in 2nd place. He is a strong contender, but the front two should have too much for him today.

Dan Skelton has had 7 winners in the past 2 weeks and Pain Au Chocalat has won twice for the yard over fences since moving from Alan King last year plus a 3rd in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Aginthe concern is his fall at Ayr in April. He is only 5yo and should have plenty more to come over fences, the first time tongue tie today could also be a major plus.

I would recommmend focusing on the top of the market for today’s race and I have shared my selection with my Racing Profits Email Subscription Service subscribers this morning, whichever way you go – enjoy the race.

Jump To It – Are You Ready To Make Money This Jumps Season ?

Well after a quiet October so far, we had a great end to the flat season yesterday with Champions Day at Ascot. It was particularly satisfying for me, as I had put up Minding as a main bet for my Racing Profits Email Subscribers yesterday morning at 5/2 in the morning and she landed Queen Elizabeth II nicely, fending off the late challenge from Ribschester.

All Focus Now Switches To The Jumps Until April

Cheltenham Festival 2016

Although we have a few more flat meetings in October and November, including the Racing Post Trophy and November Handicap at Doncaster. This weekend always marks the time I switch my attantion fully to the national hunt season ahead and I have been spending the weekend going through all the horses I am tracking in my Racing Post tracker and removing the majority of my flat horses, other than those which I am going to track on the all-weather and also a few 2yo’s who I want for the early part of the 2017 season.

We have had the first jumps meeting of the season at Kempton Park this afternoon and I was looking forward to seeing My Tent or Yours making his seasonal re-appearance after his huge effort at Cheltenham in the Champion Hurdle, although he was a late withdrawal and so we will need to wait a little longer for that, but I backed stablemate Hargam instead and made a nice profit on that bet.

Next weekend we have the Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham kicking off and then we are into November and the first big jumps meeting at Ascot, Sandown and of course the Paddy Power Open Meeting back at Cheltenham, Ilve this time of year and as many of you know – the next 5 months are my most proitable of the year on the back bets.

Where To Focus Your Attention When Backing At This Time Of Year To Make Profit

I am always sharing advice with my subscribers on how to adjust their “betting strategy” month by month, taking into account seasonal changes and what angles are the most profitable at different times of the year.

My strategy when backing horses at the start of the jumps season and through to Xmas is to specialise in tracking novice hurdlers and focusing on the major meetings. By focusing on horses you know in major meetings and then trying to identify the next superstars of the season going through to the major festivals after Xmas, you can build some nice profits.

Novice Hurdles Are A License To Print Money If You Know What You Are Looking For

I know all the jumps yards and how they prepare their new novice hurdlers, which yards will have them ready to win on their first few runs and which yards will need a few runs before they are ready to win. I watch every novice hurdle live every day and then re-watch them all back in the evening making notes on all the horses in the top 4 or 5, what running style they have, what ground they like and what courses they do well at. I then add these notes to my tracker, to alert me when they are next running. I then let my Email Subsribers know each morning what I am backing and why.

You can see why my Racing Profits Email Service is so popular at this time of year and over the next few months, plus why it is so hard to get a place and why I strictly limit them to only 50 people per month.

I currently have 5 spots available on my Racing Profits Email Subscription Service – So if you are seious about making money from backing horses over the next few months, check it out and subscribe here Racing Profits Email Service , while you still can. Find out why so many people love my service and come back month after month.

Look forward to working with you over the coming months and bring on the jumps ūüôā

Aintree Grand National

[VIDEO] Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2016

Finding the winner of the Grand National 2016 looks an impossible task, with so many runners, how do you do it ? I recorded this video How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National a few years ago for my YouTube Channel. However, the statistics we use to narrow down the field of the big race on Saturday, are just as effective now.

Take your time to watch the video through and then when we have the final declarations this afternoon, work your way through the field and make yourself a shortlist of the main contenders.

As you can see the key is to use the wealth of historical data, race trends and statistics to narrow down the field from 40 horses to the key contenders for the race each year. This is my favourite method to approach the race each year and some years I have had a list of 6 horses with four of them filling the top 4 places. So it is worth the effort.

Here are my Top 10 Tips for Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2016 :

1. Weight – Look at the Top Weight – Winners generally carry less than 11st 1lb. Over the past 30 years there have only been 3 winners to carry more. However, since the fences have got slightly easier over the years, this has not been as much of a factor with Don’t Push It in 2010 , Neptune Collonges in 2012 and last year Many Clouds carried 11st 9lb to victory, so you can see why he is so popular this year only carrying 1lb more. Although the ground looks like it could be alot softer than last year and weight could well be a factor.
NOTE: Also look at the Minimum Weight of 10 st – Only 2 winners in the past 26 years have carried the minimum 10 st – so again you can safely exclude any horses on minimum weight.
2. Age – The sweet spot for a winner’s age is between 8 – 12yrs old. All of the past 26 winners have fallen in this age group. Over the past few years the race has been dominated by 10 / 11 yo, Many Clouds was 8yrs old when he won it last year.
NOTE: Avoid Younger horses of 6 / 7 yrs old, as they do not tend to have the experience or stamina to win the race. So dismiss all horses under 8yrs old or older than 12yrs old.
3. Sex – The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 – so avoid female horses.
4. Stamina – Proven stamina – the past 20 winners have all won a race over 3m or more in that season. Even Mon Mome, the 100/1 winner in 2009 had won a race over 3m in December 2008.
5. Experience – Naturally horses with more experience do well at Aintree, as the jumping test demands it. All of the last 26 winners have run at least 10 times over fences before competing in the Grand National. Check back in the horse form and make sure they have at least 10 chase runs.
6. Greys – Only 2 grey horses in the history of the Grand National have won the race. The last was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
7. Blinkers – In the past 40 yrs only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. Comply or Die in 2008 and Earth Summit in 1998. So avoid horses with blinkers.
8. Odds – The market tends to get the race correct. Particularly when there has been little rain and the ground is good. The big priced winners tend to come when the ground is soft and it makes the race even more of a stamina test. Focus on the horses priced at 25/1 or less in the market – 20 winners from the past 26 years have come from this price range.
NOTE: This stat has been overturned twice in the past 5 years, although both of those years were on softer ground – with Neptune Collonges in 2012 at 33/1, Auroras Encore 2013 at 66/1. So the odds on the 2016 winner to be over 25/1 in the market are slim, particularly with the forecast ground.
9. One Win – Only 2 horse of the last 26 winners have recorded more than one win in the season, that was Ballabriggs the 2011 winner and Many Clouds last year’s winner. So you can safely discount horses with multiple wins that season.
10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the Grand National more than once, so any returning winners can be discounted from your shortlist.

So go through the list of runners tomorrow afternoon or on Saturday morning and put a line through each of them if they do not fit the criteria. Be ruthless and see what you have left on your list at the end. You will be surprised.

Enjoy the big race and make sure you check back here to on Saturday when I will reveal my shortlist of horses for the Grand National.

Aintree Grand National

Finding The Winner Of The Haydock Grand National Trial 2016

With the clock ticking down until the 2016 Cheltenham¬†Festival which is now less than a month away, we also had the weights revealed for this year’s Grand National on Tuesday, with Many Clouds having to carry top weight of 11st 10lb to defend his crown on 9th April. One race we all need to keep an eye on is tomorrow’s Grand National Trial at Haydock Park.

On Saturday, we’ll witness a trio of cracking showpieces including the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and Betfair Ascot Chase at Ascot, not to mention the race we’re concentrating on here – the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Aimed to give punters early clues as to who they should back in the major Aintree event itself which is two months away on April 9th, what we’ve seen in yesteryear is exactly NONE of the winners of the Grand National Trial going on to win the major event itself since 1980.

Saturday 20th February 2016 РGrand National Trial РAscot

JUMP 1While drawing clues from the Grand National Trial has proved difficult in regards to selecting the Grand National winner thus far, finding the winner of the Trial event itself may prove a little easier.

Four times out of 13 Grand National Trial races, the winning horse had ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out and that is true of Kerry Lee’s¬†Mountainous¬†with the 11yo the shortest priced to succeed on Saturday afternoon.

Having beat off second-placed Firebird Flyer by two-and-three quarter lengths in the 3m5f110y Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on January 9th, Mountainous is around 7/2 to claim glory in the 2:40pm Grand National Trial.

Cloudy Too is second favourite with the bookies at the moment and boasts the benefit of having romped home round this very course in a 3m24y back on January 23rd.

Winning by 15 lengths on that occasion, Sue Smith’s 10yo should be able to handle himself this time around too.

Key Stats For The Grand National Trial

13 times out of 13 Grand National Trial races, the winning horse was UK trained
13 times out of 13 race, the winning horse had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12 times out of 13 races, the finning horse had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had finished in the top three last time out
11 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was aged 10 or younger
10 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had raced within the last seven weeks
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse returned a double-figure price in the betting
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse carried 11-0 or less
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse came from outside the top three in the betting
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was aged 9 or younger
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse finished in the top two last time out
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was rated 135 or higher
7¬†times out of 13 races, there’s been unplaced favourites
6 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won last time out
6 times out of 13 races, the winning horse went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was Irish-bred
4 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won by exactly 15 lengths
4 times out of 13 races, the winning horse ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won with 11-12 in weight
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was trained by Lucinda Russell
2 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was the favourite

Enjoy the race and don’t forget to comment below on your fancy.

Finding The Winner Of The Clarence House Chase 2016

A big weekend of racing coming up for us at Ascot and Haydock with a couple of horses running who I really fancy. I will focus on the Clarence House Chase in this article but make sure you check out the Racing Profits Email Selection Service if you want to know what I am betting on over the weekend and each day through the week.

Saturday 23rd January 2016 – Clarence House Chase – Ascot

Clarence House Chase AscotFirst run in 1989 when it was won by Desert Orchid, the race has always been a key trial for me, pointing to the likely winner of the Champion Chase at the Festival in March. Winners such as Master Minded, Spinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets have all gone on to win the Champion Chase.

Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times over recent years and is always a trainer to focus on. However, the strength of the race this year and lack of form for Vibrato Valtat, who finished nearly 8 lengths behind Sire De Grugy at Sandown in the Tingle Creek, make it hard to see him winning this year. It is a similar story for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race 3 times recently, although it is fantastic to see Captain Conan back in action, as I backed him in the Champion Chase in 2014, his last outing, and although he never traveled in the race, he was declared lame afterwards. However, after nearly 2 years off the track I can’t get involved with him.

Key Stats For The Clarence House Chase

13 of the past 13 winners have raced within the last 7 weeks
13 of the past 13 winners have been aged 9yrs or less
13 of the past 13 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
12 out of the last 13 have won over fences at 2m 1f or further
11 of the past 13 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting
9 of the past 13 winners have been French bred
9 of the past 13 winners won last time out


The above age stat is the main concern I have for the 10yo Sire De Grugy who has looked back near his best this season after some disappointing runs last year, including his 4th in the Champion Chase. He won the Tingle Creek and battled it out with Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. At the prices he would be my pick for this Saturday, but age may be against him.

Finally we have the short priced favourite Un De Sceaux who came down again last time out at Leopardstown when looking in command, it may well be the speed with which he attacks his fences that sometimes catches him out, but the stiff fences of Ascot could well be as big a test as the competition in the race. There is little doubt that with a clear round of jumping, he is the one to beat. But I would not be taking 8/11 on him.

Whichever way you go, enjoy the race and all the build up to the Festival over the coming weeks. Don’t forget to check out my Email Selection Service where I share my personal bets each day with my subscribers.