Cheltenham Gold Cup Day – Preparing For The Final Day Of The Cheltenham Festival
The final day is the climax of the week at Prestbury Park and there can be few more emotive days in sport than Cheltenham Gold Cup day. The day starts with the Triumph Hurdle, then the County Hurdle, the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and finally the Gold Cup itself. The following video runs through the main statistics for the big three races on the final day.
As you have seen from the previous videos my main angle of attack is to narrow down the field in the big races of the week and the final day is no exception.
The Triumph Hurdle – 2m 1f – 4yo Only
Day 4 of the festival kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle. The main thing to note is that the Triumph hurdle is for 4yr olds only, it used to be a real lottery of a race, but the form has settled down recently and the winner has come from the top 4 in the market over the past 7 years. Countrywide Flame was the exception in 2012 who won at 33/1.
- Focus on the top of the market – Top 4 or 5 horses.
- Recent Form – 16 of the past 18 winners had won their previous race. Again Countrywide Flame came 3rd in 2012 in his previous run.
- Rating – The last 7 winners have all been rated 138+ by the BHA.
- Ex-Flat Horses do well in the Triumph Hurdle with the last 14 winners all having had a flat career as opposed to being National Hunt bred horses.
- Recently started hurdling – 7 of the past 8 winner did not make their hurdling debut before the December prior to Cheltenham.
- Trials Races – The Adonis Hurdle at Kempton at the end of February has thrown up 5 of the last 6 winners of the Triumph Hurdle which is a strong trend – so this should be your starting point.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – 3m – 4yo+
The 3rd race on the card on the last day is the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3m. Similar to the Ryanair CHase it has only been recently added to the festival, when it was extended to a fourth day. However there are some strong trends already emerging for the race:
- Cheltenham Form – 6 of the past 7 winners have run at Cheltenham before. 4 of them had won a race at Cheltenham.
- Proven Stamina – 5 of the past 7 winners had run in 3m or more races prior to the race.
- Age – 7yr+ is a positive – as a horse matures it develops more stamina and this is seen in the results.
- Top of Betting – 6 of the past 7 winners have been in the top 5 in the betting.
- Recent Winning Form – 7 of the past 8 winners have won ort come 2nd on their previous outing.
- All 8 winners in the race so far have been out over hurdles at least 3 times prior to the race.
- Trials Races – There are three main trials races which act as good guides to the Albert Bartlett – all are run at Cheltenham – The Hyde Novices Hurdle over 2m 5f in November has thrown up 4 Albert Bartlett Winners in 7 years. In December is the Bristol Novices Hurdle over 3m which has given us 2 winners and 3 placed efforts so far. Finally in January the Classic Novices Hurdle over 2m 4f has thrown up 2 recent winners.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup – 3m 2f – 5yo+
The climax to the entire Festival is undoubtedly the Gold Cup on Friday afternoon. It is the ultimate stamina test and the primary consideration has to be proven ability at the highest level and winning at the highest grade – something all the last 13 winners had including the ill-fated Synchronised from 2012 who had won the Grade 1 Lexus Chase in Ireland as well as the Welsh National at Chepstow. Other important factors to consider are:
- Age – No horse older than 10yrs has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1969. Even 10yr olds have only seen 1 winner in the past 18 yrs.
- Experience – No Novice Chaser has won the race since 1974 and only 1 winner since 1963 has had less than 6 starts over fences. It is all about proven ability.
- Previous Cheltenham Experience – 9 out of the last 11 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in previous festivals.
- Top 3 in the betting – Until 2012 the previous 11 winners had come from the Top 3 in the betting.
- Rating – 11 of the last 12 winners have had a BHA rating of 166+
- Trials Races – The King George VI Chase on Boxing Day at Kempton is the key race – throwing up 9 of the last 12 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The Betfair Chase at Haydock in November has also thrown up 3 winners and also the previous year’s Gold Cup has thrown up 3 winners.
I hope that helps you to narrow down the fields on the final day of the Festival and find a few winners.
Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham races selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.