Well a shame to lose Elixir De Nutz from the Supreme, just after I had posted, but that left us three solid bets and ROKSANA delivered at 10/1 for us, even if it was a shade fortunate, with the favourite going well and coming down at the last.
VIDEO | Finding Winners On Day 2 Of The Cheltenham Festival
On to Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival and just two races I am getting involved in today.
1:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
A competitive race again this year but BATTLEOVERDOYEN has done little wrong in three runs this season, and went into my notebook after beating Sams Profile at Naas at the start of January. A race that Gordon Elliott targets and won with Samcro last year.
RP TIP: BATTLEOVERDOYEN – 2pts to win at 7/2
2:10 RSA Novices’ Chase
I am sticking with SANTINI who will love conditions and be able to make amends for his Boxing Day 3rd in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton where he seemed to get caught out by the sharp track and this test will be perfect for him.
RP TIP: SANTINI – 2pts to win at 3/1
3:30 Champion Chase
I can’t oppose ALTIOR but I can’t back him at 2/5 either, so I will watch and enjoy him romping to victory.
Well it is that time of year again, when we all head to Prestbury Park for the Cheltenham Festival 2019.
This year I will be analysing the key Grade 1’s each day and putting up some tips for you all to follow for FREE. I may be back later in the year with my backing service, but for now I am happy to share my thoughts and bets each day of the Festival 2019.
VIDEO| Finding Winners On Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival 2019
I hope you watched the video above and it gave you insight into how to use statistical analysis and key trial races to take note of when making your selections.
The big factor this year is the ground which is going to be soft, with more rain due and a storm approaching on Tuesday from the west, conditions will deteriorate further through the week, so look for horse who are proven to perform in the testing conditions. Here is my view on the four Grade 1’s of Day 1.
1:30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Well last year we kicked off the festival in style with our bet Summerville Boy beating Kalashnikov at 9/1 to give us a nice winner. In fact I have picked the winner of the Supreme 3 times from the last 6 years.
If you follow me on Twitter @racingprofits – you will know how much I like ELIXIR DE NUTZ and he followed a course and distance win here in December with an even more impressive win on soft ground at Sandown in the Tolworth Hurdle beating the well fancied Rathhill. He is proven here and in the conditions, with further improvement likely he is far too big a price.
RP TIP: Go nuts on ELIXIR DE NUTZ – 1pt each way at 8/1
2:10 The Arkle
A super-competitive renewal this year and one in which you could make a case for the majority of the field, but I am going to have a small interest in HARDLINE who loves soft / heavy conditions, with all of his best performances coming on this ground. The stand out performance is his beating of Getabird on Boxing Day at Limerick, finding plenty over 2m 3f and proving doubts about his stamina wrong. He is dropped back to 2m here and will make it a test with Davy Russell back in the saddle.
RP TIP: Go in hard on HARDLINE – 1pt to win at 5/1
3:30 Champion Hurdle
Although I backed Verdana Blue in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, I am a massive BUVEUR D’AIR fan and the way he beat Samcro in the Fighting Fifth and Vision Des Flos at Sandown, plus conditions being perfect for him back here, I am happy to take on Apple’s Jade with him. I backed her last year in the Mares’ Hurdle and thought she was very disappointing, so could not trust her again here.
RP TIP: BUVEUR D’AIR – 2pts to win
4:10 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle
A race dominated by Willie Mullins and again he has 5 runners of the 10 this year and it hard to get away from the unbeaten Benie Des Dieux who won the race last year beating the aforementioned Apple’s Jade before heading to Punchestown to win the Mares’ Champion Hurdle. She has not been seen since, mainly due to the ground conditions, but the rain has come and the fact that Ruby Walsh has picked her ahead of Limini or any of the other Mullins entries.
However, I was impressed by the run of ROKSANA at Sandown behind Buveur D’Air on her reappearance and if that gets her back near the form she showed when 2nd to Santini in the Sefton Novices’ at Aintree last April, she could give the favourite something to think about and could well be in the mix.
RP TIP: ROKSANA – 1pt each way at 10/1
Enjoy Day 1 and don’t forget to visit www.racingprofits.net for more free videos and tips on profitable betting.
The final day is the climax of the week at Prestbury Park and there can be few more emotive days in sport than Cheltenham Gold Cup day. The day starts with the Triumph Hurdle, then the County Hurdle, the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and finally the Gold Cup itself. The following video runs through the main statistics for the big three races on the final day.
As you have seen from the previous videos my main angle of attack is to narrow down the field in the big races of the week and the final day is no exception.
The Triumph Hurdle – 2m 1f – 4yo Only
Day 4 of the festival kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle. The main thing to note is that the Triumph hurdle is for 4yr olds only, it used to be a real lottery of a race, but the form has settled down recently and the winner has come from the top 4 in the market over the past 7 years. Countrywide Flame was the exception in 2012 who won at 33/1.
Focus on the top of the market – Top 4 or 5 horses.
Recent Form – 16 of the past 18 winners had won their previous race. Again Countrywide Flame came 3rd in 2012 in his previous run.
Rating – The last 7 winners have all been rated 138+ by the BHA.
Ex-Flat Horses do well in the Triumph Hurdle with the last 14 winners all having had a flat career as opposed to being National Hunt bred horses.
Recently started hurdling – 7 of the past 8 winner did not make their hurdling debut before the December prior to Cheltenham.
Trials Races – The Adonis Hurdle at Kempton at the end of February has thrown up 5 of the last 6 winners of the Triumph Hurdle which is a strong trend – so this should be your starting point.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – 3m – 4yo+
The 3rd race on the card on the last day is the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3m. Similar to the Ryanair CHase it has only been recently added to the festival, when it was extended to a fourth day. However there are some strong trends already emerging for the race:
Cheltenham Form – 6 of the past 7 winners have run at Cheltenham before. 4 of them had won a race at Cheltenham.
Proven Stamina – 5 of the past 7 winners had run in 3m or more races prior to the race.
Age – 7yr+ is a positive – as a horse matures it develops more stamina and this is seen in the results.
Top of Betting – 6 of the past 7 winners have been in the top 5 in the betting.
Recent Winning Form – 7 of the past 8 winners have won ort come 2nd on their previous outing.
All 8 winners in the race so far have been out over hurdles at least 3 times prior to the race.
Trials Races – There are three main trials races which act as good guides to the Albert Bartlett – all are run at Cheltenham – The Hyde Novices Hurdle over 2m 5f in November has thrown up 4 Albert Bartlett Winners in 7 years. In December is the Bristol Novices Hurdle over 3m which has given us 2 winners and 3 placed efforts so far. Finally in January the Classic Novices Hurdle over 2m 4f has thrown up 2 recent winners.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup – 3m 2f – 5yo+
The climax to the entire Festival is undoubtedly the Gold Cup on Friday afternoon. It is the ultimate stamina test and the primary consideration has to be proven ability at the highest level and winning at the highest grade – something all the last 13 winners had including the ill-fated Synchronised from 2012 who had won the Grade 1 Lexus Chase in Ireland as well as the Welsh National at Chepstow. Other important factors to consider are:
Age – No horse older than 10yrs has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1969. Even 10yr olds have only seen 1 winner in the past 18 yrs.
Experience – No Novice Chaser has won the race since 1974 and only 1 winner since 1963 has had less than 6 starts over fences. It is all about proven ability.
Previous Cheltenham Experience – 9 out of the last 11 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in previous festivals.
Top 3 in the betting – Until 2012 the previous 11 winners had come from the Top 3 in the betting.
Rating – 11 of the last 12 winners have had a BHA rating of 166+
Trials Races – The King George VI Chase on Boxing Day at Kempton is the key race – throwing up 9 of the last 12 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The Betfair Chase at Haydock in November has also thrown up 3 winners and also the previous year’s Gold Cup has thrown up 3 winners.
I hope that helps you to narrow down the fields on the final day of the Festival and find a few winners.
Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham races selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.
In this second part of my Racing Profits Guide To The Cheltenham Festival we look at the major races on Day 2 of the festival at Cheltenham racecourse.
It is another busy day with four Grade 1 races – the Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle, the RSA Chase, the big race of the day the Queen Mother Champion Chase and to finish the day we have the Champion Bumper.
Again I have a video which explains to you how to use the main race trends and stats to work your way through each race and narrow down the field. Remember to view the video full screen to get the most out of it 🙂
The main aim of the video is to help you narrow down the fields in each of the races of Day 2. Remember that, as in Day 1, the races are run over the old course at Cheltenham racecourse. If there has been no rain overnight the ground can be drying out by now and getting a little quicker, so your starting point must be to get an accurate picture of the going.
Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle – 2m 5f – 4yo+
The Neptune is the 2nd race on the card on Day 2 and has been won by an Irish trained horse in 4 out of the last 6 years. Willie Mullins focuses on this race and the day as a whole, so his horses should be your starting point. The key stats to look for are:
Previous Race Form – 27 of the last 28 winners have finished either 1st or 2nd in their previous run.
Top 6 in the Market – 24 of the last 26 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting, so focus your attention on here.
Age – Forget 7 yrs or older horses. Only 1 winner since 1974 has won at this age. Focus on the younger horses.
Graded Class Hurdle Form – You are looking for horses that have proven their class. 12 of the last 14 winners have already competed in a Graded hurdle before going to the Neptune.
Ex-Bumper Horses – Have won the past 11 of 13 races – ex-flat horses have only won 2.
Negative is Nicky Henderson – 1 from 24 in this race. Simonsig won in 2012 for him.
Trials Races – the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown and Navan Novices Hurdle.
RSA Chase – 3m
As you would expect in a stayers chase of this nature the RSA is dominated by older horses, big chase races such as this require experience to win.
Older Horses – 10 of the last 12 have been 7 or 8yrs old, with the last 7 winners being 7yr olds – so focus on the 7yr olds in the race. Be aware that no 9 yr old has even placed since 1993.
Previous Race Form – Only one of the last 24 winners failed to finish 1st or 2nd last time out.
Experience – The last 13 winners have had at least 3 runs over fences.
Run This Year – The last 48 Winners have all had a run in that calendar year.
Irish Trained – 3 winners from last 4 have been Irish trained. Bob’s Worth in 2012 was the exception.
Trials Races – Dr P.J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown is a big clue to the Irish challenge. Reynoldstown Novice Chase at Ascot. Major negative is the Feltham Novices at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Queen Mother Champion Chase – 2m
The showpiece of Day 2 with £180k prize money. Run over 2m on the old course, the same as the Arkle from Day 1. Here are the trends to look for to help you narrow down the filed in the Queen Mother Champion Chase:
Festival Form – 20 of the last 27 winners have won or placed at the festival in previous years – obviously horses who have perfomred well in the Arkle in previous years and are proven around Cheltenham are the key contenders to look out for.
Irish Trained – Again Irish trained horses have won 5 of the last 9 runnings of the Queen Mother Chase.
Market Price – 29 of the last 30 winners have been at 11/1 or less – so focus your attention on the top of the market – usually the top 4 or 5 horses. Indeed 10 of the last 13 were under 5/1.
Age – Only one horse since 1997 has been older than 9 yrs old.
French Bred Chasers – 6 of the last 11 winners have been french bred.
Trials Races – the Tingle Creek in December at Sandown is one of the biggest pointers to the Queen Mother Chase with 8 of the last 11 winners coming out of the race. As we said earlier, look for previous strong runs in the Arkle from the previous year and also the Queen Mother Chase. Also the Tied Cottage Chase in Punchestown.
The final race on Wednesday’s card and a great race to analyse, as it can give real clues to the following year’s Cheltenham festival and National Hunt season horses to watch. Here are the trends to consider for the Champion Bumper:
Willie Mullins – Another race which Willie tends to target with strong horses including Champagne Fever in 2012 at 16/1. The Irish had won 14 out of 17 up to 2010.
Previous Race Win – Only 2 of the last 19 winners did not win their previous race to the Champion Bumper and the last 4 out of 5 have been unbeaten.
Top 6 In The Market – 16 of 19 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting, so focus your efforts on the top horses.
Negative – French Breds – Only 1 winner from last 25 has been a french bred horse.
Age – Focus on 5 & 6 yr olds – they are 11 wins from the last 12 races.
Trials Races – Usually most horses coming to the Champion Bumper are very lightly raced, having run 3 or 4 times maximum before.
Big Field Bumpers – Look for horses who have won in large field bumpers 14 or more runners. 16 of the last 19 winners have won a bumper with 14 or more runners previous to going to Cheltenham.
Day 2 is a busy day at Cheltenham racecourse with the four Grade 1 races on offer, so take your time and work your way slowly through each race, narrowing down the field and making yourself a shortlist of the most likely winners.
Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham racecourse selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.
Well after all the waiting and tracking of horses the Cheltenham Festival 2017 is finally here and as always the excitement the night before is almost unbearable, as is the number of texts and emails I am receiving 🙂
How To Find More Winners At The Festival
I thought I would share this Guide To The Cheltenham Festival in which I take a look at the main races on Day 1, including how to make a shortlist of the most likely contenders in the key Cheltenham races of the day – the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Arkle Chase and the most valuable race on Day 1, the Champion Hurdle.
I recorded the video a few years ago, but the content and stats I use are the ones I use today along with the horses I have tracked towards the Festival, to make my final decision on who to get involved with each day. I recorded a video for each of the four days and will share them over the coming days.
The main aim of this video is to help you narrow down the fields in the main three races of the day. As we looked at in the first video, the first two days races are run on the old course at Prestbury Park. The course is likely to have been watered if there has been no rain in the week running up to the start of the festival, to produce the required Good / Soft ground conditions. So Day 1 can be the slowest conditions of the week.
Supreme Novices Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+
It is great to start the festival off with a winner, as we did in 2010 when we put up Menorah for the Supreme Novices and he won for us at 12/1. Here is what to consider for your shortlist of horses for the Supreme Novices:
Irish Entries – The Irish have tended to dominate this race winning 8 of the last 13 – so take a close look at the main Irish yards entries for the race.
The big two UK Trainers – Henderson / Nicholls – look for stamina horses that they have put into the race.
Last Time Out Winners – 13 of the last 15 winners of the Supreme have won their previous race.
National Hunt v Ex-Flat Horses – since the watering of the course to ensure that there is Good / Soft ground on Day 1 – this has swung massively in favour of National Hunt bred horses rather than ex-flat horses – so side with them.
Trials Races – Look at who won the previous year’s Champion Bumper, the Deloitte Hurdle andRoyal Bond Novice Hurdle
Experience is key – Look for horses with 3 or more runs over hurdles – this accounts for 5 of the last 7 winners.
Recent Run – in the past 20 yrs all the winners except two, have had a run within the previous 45 days.
Arkle Chase – 2m – 5yo+
The first big chase of the Festival and comes straight after the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Top Rated Hurdler – The major stat is that is has been dominated by top rated hurdlers, with the last 11 winners from 12 having been rated 142 or more over hurdles. This has to be your starting point when narrowing the field down.
Oppose Favourites – Only 2 favourites have won the race in the past 20 years.
Odds of less than 11/1 – Only 1 winner in the past 20 years has been at odds greater than 11/1 on the day. So focus on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites.
Last Time Out Run – The selection must have come 1st or 2nd in his previous run.
Age – Oppose young 5yo horses.
Trials Races – Grade 2 November Novices at Cheltenham, Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December, the Kingmaker NovicesChase at Warwick and the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown.
Champion Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+
The most valuable race of Day 1 with over £200k in prize money. Here is what you should consider to help you narrow down the field:
Won their previous start – One of the strongest trends for any race at Cheltenham is the fact that 24 of the last 28 winners of the Champion Hurdle won their previous race.
Recent Run – They should of run in that calender year.
Previous Cheltenham form – A win or place at Cheltenham already in their career. 17 of the last 26 winners have finished in the top 4 at the previous years festival. Particularly the previous year’s Champion Hurdle. 7 of the past 11 placed the previous year.
Age – Again younger horses 5yo do not tend to do as well – only 1 winner since 1985.
Irish Entries – As with the Supreme Novices – the Irish target this race on Day 1 with 9 Irish winners from the past 14.
Top 6 In The Market – 18 of the last 21 winners have come from the top 6 in the market.
Trials Races – The previous years Champion Hurdle, the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, 3 of the last 4 winners have competed in this race, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, Rabobank Champion Hurdle and Istabraq Hurdle.
Negatives – The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton – only 1 horse from 21 has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle after winning the Christmas Hurdle. Also The International Hurdle at Cheltenham only produced 1 winner in 37 years.
I hope this helps you enjoy Day 1 of the festival and find a few winners. Go through each of the three Grade 1 races and narrow the field down to the main contenders.
If you want my own personal selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival.
In 2016 we had some great winners and finished +25 pts up over the 4 days.