Well it was a day of shocks yesterday at the York Ebor Festival with first Fair Eva only managing 3rd in the Lowther Stakes and then Seventh Heaven overturning Found in the Yorkshire Oaks. Although personally that was a great result, as I had put Seventh Heaven up to my Racing Profits Email Service subscribers in the morning at 4/1 and we made a nice +10pts profit on the bet.
On to today and Day 3 is always a day of contrast, as far as the major races go, with the long distance Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 2m and the cavalry charge that is the Group 1 sprint the Nunthorpe Stakes over 5f. Both renewals this year a full of quality horses and open looking affairs. Hopefully the big race stats and trends below plus my race analysis will help you make sense of them both.
2:30 – Lonsdale Cup – Group 2 – 2m – Stats & Race Trends
11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Had 4 or more career wins
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Favourites placed
9/12 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/12 – Won a Listed or better class race before
9/12 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
9/12 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/12 – Had run at York before (6 won)
6/12 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/12 – Favourites to win
3/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
3 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2
Race Analysis: An interesting Lonsdale Cup as most of the field ran in the Goodwood Cup last month and runner-up Pallasator looks sure to make a bold bid on that form, as he finishing ahead of Wicklow Brave and Quest For More with Suegioo and Curbyourenthusiasm well beaten. Clever Cookie was fourth in this race last season and narrowly beat Curbyourenthusiasm in the Yorkshire Cup here in May. He’s had a short rest since running below par in the Ascot Gold Cup. Don’t dismiss Trip To Paris who hasn’t won since the Ascot Gold Cup last year but competed in top international races for the remainder of the year. He made an encouraging reappearance over too short a trip at Newbury last month and is taken to finish a lot closer than last year’s fifth.
3:40 – Nunthorpe Stakes – Group 1 – 5f – Stats & Race Trends
12/14 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Came from stall 11 or lower
11/14 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
10/14 – Favourites to finish in the top 4
10/14 – Had run at the course before
9/14 – Winning distance less than a length
9/14 – Were previous Group race winners
8/14 – Had 5 or more runs already that season
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 5 of last 7)
5/14 – Placed horses from stall 11
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (3rd in 2003 & 2012)
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 17/1
Race Analysis: It is one of the most open Nunthorpe’s for a number of years and as the final stat above shows with the average SP of the winner being 17/1 over the past 14 runnings, nothing is ever certain in a 20 runner 5f sprint at York. However Mecca’s Angel won the race last year and is back to defend his title, on the back of a blistering win at the Curragh. He loves York and we have to have him on side again in this. Yalta is a lightly raced Mark Johnson 2yo who has been thrown straight in here on the back of a superb Molecomb win at Glorious Goodwood and with more progression likely we could be looking at a top class sprinter. Limato is another to add to your shortlist after his July Cup romp at Newmarket where he won by 2 lengths another on the upgrade who will love the track and conditions. Make sure you also check out those at bigger prices such as Easton Angel, Take Cover and Muthmir who all hold solid claims on the race.
Enjoy Day 3 and I will be back with my analysis of Day 4 tomorrow.
