I think that Day 2 of the Ebor Festival is one of my favourite days of the week, as it is York Ladies Day and the two feature races The Lowther and the Yorkshire Oaks, always feature the best fillies of the season. Today is no exception with horses such as Found, Fair Eva and Seventh Heaven on show today.
As with yesterday I will share the race stats and trends for the two big races, plus my analysis of each race.
2:30 Lowther Stakes – Group 2 – 6f
13/14 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
13/14 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
13/14 – Had won at least once before
13/14 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
12/14 – Had not run at York before
11/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
11/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Winning distance 1 length or more
8/14 – Had won over 6f before
7/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
RACE ANALYSIS: The Lowther this year is all about Frankel’s daughter Fair Eva who won by 4 lengths on debut at Haydock beating Nations Alexandre and could hardly have been more impressive in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot where she beat today’s rival Kilmah by four lengths. Nations Alexandre then bounced back by winning the Solera Stakes at Newmarket last time out and is looking incredible value at around 28/1 for this and at eight runner we would advise a little each way bet on her.
3:40 Yorkshire Oaks – Group 1 – 1m 4f
15/15 – Aged 3 (9) or 4 (6) years-old
15/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/15 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
10/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
9/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
7/15 – Had run at York before (3 won)
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Placed horses from stall 5
7/15 – Winners from stall 5 or 6
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (1 winner)
5/15 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
5/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
4/15 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/15 – Trained by Jim Bolger
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
RACE ANALYSIS: The feature race of Day 2 and The Yorkshire Oaks features last year’s brilliant Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Found who has competed at Group 1 level in her last three races, though her only success since Keeneland was in a Group 3 at the Curragh. The main concern will be the ground, as generally she likes good ground or softer so today’s conditions won’t be ideal. Seventh Heaven had been in fantastic form this year before heading to Epsom for the Oaks where she was clearly unsuited by ground, however she bounced back in emphatic style to win comfortably at the Curragh last time out and there’s more to come from this daughter of Galileo. The lightly-raced Queen’s Trust ran a superb race behind Minding in the Nassau Stakes and will be even better suited by today’s longer trip, so also comes into the reckoning. Endless Time is another for the shortlist, having had a curtailed career but is making up for lost time and has progressed from a Class 3 handicap to landing a Group 2 at Haydock.
Enjoy York Ladies Day and I will talk tomorrow.
