Richard Mawer - Racing Profits

All Posts by Rich

VIDEO | Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Day 3 – World Hurdle Day

Day 3 is the calm before the storm at Cheltenham races, with two main races to focus on. The key thing to remember about Day 3 is that the races move to the New course. In the following video I take a look at the key trends for the Ryanair Chase and the World Hurdle.

As you can see there are plenty of statistics and trends to help you narrow down the field in these two key races:

Ryanair Chase – 2m 5f

The Ryanair is one of the newer races on the card, only starting in 2004, so the statistical trends are still forming, however there are some trends to focus on:

  • Previous Cheltenham Form – All 8 winners have run at Cheltenham in a major race and 7 have won at Cheltenham previously too.
  • No Irish Winner – Of the 8 winners they have all been home trainers and the Irish have yet to win the Ryanair.
  • Top 3 in the market – The last 7 of 8 winners have been from the top 3 in the market – so this must be your starting point.
  • Proven Stamina – Even though the race is only 2m 5f you should look for a horse proven over 3m.
  • 158+ Rating – All the winners have been rated 158+
  • Age – 8 – 10 yr olds have won the last 5 Ryanairs in a row.
  • Trials Races – Paddypower Gold Cup in November has thrown up 5 of 7 winners. The previous year’s Ryanair Chase has thrown up 3 winners who have returned to win.

The World Hurdle – 3m

The World Hurdle is the big stayers hurdle race of the festival and it has been dominated by Big Bucks over the past few years. He is a french bred and 6 of the las 12 winners have been french bred horses. Here are the other major trends to consider:

  • Top 4 in the market – last 10 winners have all come from the Top 4 in the market.
  • Recent Form – All the last 12 winners have finished 1st or 2nd in their previous run.
  • Cheltenham Form – 16 of the last 18 winners ran the previous year at the festival.
  • Negative – Champion Hurdle form – No winner has won the Champion Hurdle the previous year since 1992.
  • No Irish Winner – Again no wins from 17 for the Irish in this race.
  • Age – Avoid 5yr olds – No 5yr old has won the race since 1972 when it was first run.
  • Avoid Front Runners – No horse has made it all and won as a fdront runner since 1996.
  • Trials Races – The main staying hurdles to focus on for form are the Cleeve Hurdle here at Cheltenham in January has thrown up 3 of the last 5 winners. The Long Walk Hurdle at Newbury has thrown up 5 winners in the last 10 years. Also look at the previous years World Hurdle, that has thrown up 5 horses who have returned and won.

I hope that helps you to narrow down the fields on Day 3 and find a few winners. Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham races selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.

  • Rich
  • a couple of years ago
  • News

VIDEO | Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Day 2 – Champion Chase Day

In this second part of my Racing Profits Guide To The Cheltenham Festival we look at the major races on Day 2 of the festival at Cheltenham racecourse.

It is another busy day with four Grade 1 races – the Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle, the RSA Chase, the big race of the day the Queen Mother Champion Chase and to finish the day we have the Champion Bumper.

Again I have a video which explains to you how to use the main race trends and stats to work your way through each race and narrow down the field. Remember to view the video full screen to get the most out of it πŸ™‚

The main aim of the video is to help you narrow down the fields in each of the races of Day 2. Remember that, as in Day 1, the races are run over the old course at Cheltenham racecourse. If there has been no rain overnight the ground can be drying out by now and getting a little quicker, so your starting point must be to get an accurate picture of the going.

Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle – 2m 5f – 4yo+

The Neptune is the 2nd race on the card on Day 2 and has been won by an Irish trained horse in 4 out of the last 6 years. Willie Mullins focuses on this race and the day as a whole, so his horses should be your starting point. The key stats to look for are:

  • Previous Race Form – 27 of the last 28 winners have finished either 1st or 2nd in their previous run.
  • Top 6 in the Market – 24 of the last 26 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting, so focus your attention on here.
  • Age – Forget 7 yrs or older horses. Only 1 winner since 1974 has won at this age. Focus on the younger horses.
  • Graded Class Hurdle Form – You are looking for horses that have proven their class. 12 of the last 14 winners have already competed in a Graded hurdle before going to the Neptune.
  • Ex-Bumper Horses – Have won the past 11 of 13 races – ex-flat horses have only won 2.
  • Negative is Nicky Henderson – 1 from 24 in this race. Simonsig won in 2012 for him.
  • Trials Races – the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown and Navan Novices Hurdle.

RSA Chase – 3m

As you would expect in a stayers chase of this nature the RSA is dominated by older horses, big chase races such as this require experience to win.

  • Older Horses – 10 of the last 12 have been 7 or 8yrs old, with the last 7 winners being 7yr olds – so focus on the 7yr olds in the race. Be aware that no 9 yr old has even placed since 1993.
  • Previous Race Form – Only one of the last 24 winners failed to finish 1st or 2nd last time out.
  • Experience – The last 13 winners have had at least 3 runs over fences.
  • Run This Year – The last 48 Winners have all had a run in that calendar year.
  • Irish Trained – 3 winners from last 4 have been Irish trained. Bob’s Worth in 2012 was the exception.
  • Trials Races – Dr P.J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown is a big clue to the Irish challenge. Reynoldstown Novice Chase at Ascot. Major negative is the Feltham Novices at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – 2m

The showpiece of Day 2 with Β£180k prize money. Run over 2m on the old course, the same as the Arkle from Day 1. Here are the trends to look for to help you narrow down the filed in the Queen Mother Champion Chase:

  • Festival Form – 20 of the last 27 winners have won or placed at the festival in previous years – obviously horses who have perfomred well in the Arkle in previous years and are proven around Cheltenham are the key contenders to look out for.
  • Irish Trained – Again Irish trained horses have won 5 of the last 9 runnings of the Queen Mother Chase.
  • Market Price – 29 of the last 30 winners have been at 11/1 or less – so focus your attention on the top of the market – usually the top 4 or 5 horses. Indeed 10 of the last 13 were under 5/1.
  • Age – Only one horse since 1997 has been older than 9 yrs old.
  • French Bred Chasers – 6 of the last 11 winners have been french bred.
  • Trials Races – the Tingle Creek in December at Sandown is one of the biggest pointers to the Queen Mother Chase with 8 of the last 11 winners coming out of the race. As we said earlier, look for previous strong runs in the Arkle from the previous year and also the Queen Mother Chase. Also the Tied Cottage Chase in Punchestown.

Champion Bumper

The final race on Wednesday’s card and a great race to analyse, as it can give real clues to the following year’s Cheltenham festival and National Hunt season horses to watch. Here are the trends to consider for the Champion Bumper:

  • Willie Mullins – Another race which Willie tends to target with strong horses including Champagne Fever in 2012 at 16/1. The Irish had won 14 out of 17 up to 2010.
  • Previous Race Win – Only 2 of the last 19 winners did not win their previous race to the Champion Bumper and the last 4 out of 5 have been unbeaten.
  • Top 6 In The Market – 16 of 19 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting, so focus your efforts on the top horses.
  • Negative – French Breds – Only 1 winner from last 25 has been a french bred horse.
  • Age – Focus on 5 & 6 yr olds – they are 11 wins from the last 12 races.
  • Trials Races – Usually most horses coming to the Champion Bumper are very lightly raced, having run 3 or 4 times maximum before.
  • Big Field Bumpers – Look for horses who have won in large field bumpers 14 or more runners. 16 of the last 19 winners have won a bumper with 14 or more runners previous to going to Cheltenham.

Day 2 is a busy day at Cheltenham racecourse with the four Grade 1 races on offer, so take your time and work your way slowly through each race, narrowing down the field and making yourself a shortlist of the most likely winners.

Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham racecourse selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.

hennessy gold cup at newbury racecourse 2016

VIDEO | Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Day 1 – Champions Day

Well after all the waiting and tracking of horses the Cheltenham Festival 2017 is finally here and as always the excitement the night before is almost unbearable, as is the number of texts and emails I am receiving πŸ™‚

How To Find More Winners At The Festival

I  thought I would share this Guide To The Cheltenham Festival in which I take a look at the main races on Day 1, including how to make a shortlist of the most likely contenders in the key Cheltenham races of the day – the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Arkle Chase and the most valuable race on Day 1, the Champion Hurdle.

I recorded the video a few years ago, but the content and stats I use are the ones I use today along with the horses I have tracked towards the Festival, to make my final decision on who to get involved with each day. I recorded a video for each of the four days and will share them over the coming days.

The main aim of this video is to help you narrow down the fields in the main three races of the day. As we looked at in the first video, the first two days races are run on the old course at Prestbury Park. The course is likely to have been watered if there has been no rain in the week running up to the start of the festival, to produce the required Good / Soft ground conditions. So Day 1 can be the slowest conditions of the week.

Supreme Novices Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+

It is great to start the festival off with a winner, as we did in 2010 when we put up Menorah for the Supreme Novices and he won for us at 12/1. Here is what to consider for your shortlist of horses for the Supreme Novices:

  • Irish Entries – The Irish have tended to dominate this race winning 8 of the last 13 – so take a close look at the main Irish yards entries for the race.
  • The big two UK Trainers – Henderson / Nicholls – look for stamina horses that they have put into the race.
  • Last Time Out Winners – 13 of the last 15 winners of the Supreme have won their previous race.
  • National Hunt v Ex-Flat Horses – since the watering of the course to ensure that there is Good / Soft ground on Day 1 – this has swung massively in favour of National Hunt bred horses rather than ex-flat horses – so side with them.
  • Trials Races – Look at who won the previous year’s Champion Bumper, the Deloitte Hurdle and Royal Bond Novice Hurdle
  • Experience is key – Look for horses with 3 or more runs over hurdles – this accounts for 5 of the last 7 winners.
  • Recent Run – in the past 20 yrs all the winners except two, have had a run within the previous 45 days.

Arkle Chase – 2m – 5yo+

The first big chase of the Festival and comes straight after the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

  • Top Rated Hurdler – The major stat is that is has been dominated by top rated hurdlers, with the last 11 winners from 12 having been rated 142 or more over hurdles. This has to be your starting point when narrowing the field down.
  • Oppose Favourites – Only 2 favourites have won the race in the past 20 years.
  • Odds of less than 11/1 – Only 1 winner in the past 20 years has been at odds greater than 11/1 on the day. So focus on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites.
  • Last Time Out Run – The selection must have come 1st or 2nd in his previous run.
  • Age – Oppose young 5yo horses.
  • Trials Races – Grade 2 November Novices at Cheltenham, Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December, the Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick and the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown.

Champion Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+

The most valuable race of Day 1 with over Β£200k in prize money. Here is what you should consider to help you narrow down the field:

  • Won their previous start – One of the strongest trends for any race at Cheltenham is the fact that 24 of the last 28 winners of the Champion Hurdle won their previous race.
  • Recent Run – They should of run in that calender year.
  • Previous Cheltenham form – A win or place at Cheltenham already in their career. 17 of the last 26 winners have finished in the top 4 at the previous years festival. Particularly the previous year’s Champion Hurdle. 7 of the past 11 placed the previous year.
  • Age – Again younger horses 5yo do not tend to do as well – only 1 winner since 1985.
  • Irish Entries – As with the Supreme Novices – the Irish target this race on Day 1 with 9 Irish winners from the past 14.
  • Top 6 In The Market – 18 of the last 21 winners have come from the top 6 in the market.
  • Trials Races – The previous years Champion Hurdle, the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, 3 of the last 4 winners have competed in this race, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, Rabobank Champion Hurdle and Istabraq Hurdle.
  • Negatives The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton – only 1 horse from 21 has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle after winning the Christmas Hurdle. Also The International Hurdle at Cheltenham only produced 1 winner in 37 years.

I hope this helps you enjoy Day 1 of the festival and find a few winners. Go through each of the three Grade 1 races and narrow the field down to the main contenders.

If you want my own personal selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival.

In 2016 we had some great winners and finished +25 pts up over the 4 days.

Are You Ready For The Cheltenham Festival 2017 ? +38pts Profit So Far In February – We Are :)

Well what a flying start to 2017 we have had and no more so than this month and my tracked horses landing day after day for us to already be on +38pts profit after 16 days πŸ™‚

It is month’s like this when all the hard work, watching back races, making notes and waiting for the right conditions, really pays dividends for us all. In a month from now we will be in the middle of the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and my Email Service Subscribers will be backing all of the horses I am tracking towards this years festival – If you want to join them then click here – Racing Profits Email Selection Service

+38pts Profit So Far In February – With Plenty More To Come !!

The month started well with a double on the 2nd in Monalee at 11/8 and then a massive each way gamble on Tornado In Milan landing at 16/1 at Wincanton. We then backed Top Notch at Sandown at 5/2 on Monday 5th we backed Annie Salts at 10/1 at Wolverhampton and on the 8th Bracken Brae to win at Chelmsford, we then had a quiet week before going in big on Cyrus Darius in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso and landing at 5/2.

I have always said that the jumps season is my most profitable time of the year through to Aintree in April and this year is no exception. I recommend you take a good look at the Email Service and see why it is so popular. Yes, I limit the numbers on it every month, but for a reason, to protect our prices and ensure every one of my subscribers can get on at the prices I recommend in the morning.

If you are interested in getting involved, get on over the next few days and make sure you benefit from my Cheltenham Festival selections and everything in between.

Simply Click here – Racing Profits Email Selection Service

Look forward to working with you !!

hennessy gold cup at newbury racecourse 2016

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase & The Fighting Fifth Weekend – Are You Ready ?

Well what a weekend we have ahead of us, with the Fighting Fifth up at Newcastle tomorrow quickly followed by the Hennessy Gold Cup, a few minutes later down at Newbury. We also have Thistlecrack back out over fences in the Grade 2 Novice Chase at Newbury, so a cracking weekend.

2:55 – Newcastle – The Fighting Fifth

fighting fifth hurdle at newcastle racecourseWell a race I love and always gives us some big clues for the Festival in March. The market is headed by Sceau Royal for Alan King and Daryl Jacob this year and you can see the thinking after his two runs this season so far. On his seasonal re-appearance, he destroyed the field by 11 lengths at Cheltenham in the Class 2 Masterson Holdings Hurdle, as he should have done, although it was a strong enough race including the favourite Adrien Du Pont. However, his run in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton earlier this month was even more impressive with him winning by 9 lengths, although the departure of him main rival Zubayr at the last probably flattered him a little.

Gigginstown won this race last year with Identity Thief and they are back again with two runners in this year’s race. Petit Mouchoir is trained by Henry De Bromhead who trained Identity Thief, and he could well reverse the placings with Apple’s Jade from the Down Royal Grade 2 they both competed in earlier this month. Apple’s Jade was the one horse that you could see Gordon Elliott was over joyed to have moved into his yard from Willie Mullins in October and she looked in need of that Down Royal run. She is still lightly raced and can show the class that she has in this race. The final one who may have an outside chance is Irving who has been given a good break by Paul Nicholls, after two disappointing runs last season, including in this race where he finished 6th to Identity Thief, well beaten. However, if the break has revitalised him, he could well be there or thereabouts. Whichever way you go, it will be a fascinating race to watch and make notes on, with the Festival in mind.

3:10 – Newbury – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase

The Hennessy meeting at Newbury is the meeting that really gets me excited for the festive season and the quality jumps racing we have ahead of us over the coming months. It has also been a race which has made me plenty of money over the years, including when Smad Place won last year, we had backed him at 12/1 and he was backed in to 7/1 by the off. The race this year is as wide open as the betting would suggest. Native River’s win in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree in April makes him the class act in this year’s race and he has been really popular in the antepost markets. He will be fit and ready after his pipe opener at Wetherby at the end of last month. Paul hennessy gold cup at newbury racecourse 2016Nicholl’s has been bullish about Saphir Du Rheu and he looked in good heart when finishing 3rd at Ascot in the Grade 3 Sodexo Gold Cup at the end of last month, another who will be right there. I have got to admit that I expected Un Temps Pour Tout to be shorter than he currently is, as he only finished a couple of lengths behind Native River at this time last year in a Novice Chase at Newbury and has shown some superb form since then, including his win in the Ultima at The Festival in March. Smad Place has got his work cut out this year, off top weight, but he does love it around Newbury and he will relish returning here to defend his crown, I am sure he will make a bold bid under Wayne Hutchinson again. Nicky Henderson has got the quirky Vyta Du Roc here on a mark of only 143 and carrying only 10st 3lb, so if he is unlikely to ever get a better chance to land this race with the horse, who on a going day could win this at a canter, he is just hard to trust. My final one for the shortlist would be Blaklion , but the RSA Chase winner has gone off the boil a little lately, including when finishing over 6 lengths behind Native River in the Mildmay in April. He was well beaten in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last month and will need to bounce back to form, but should he do so, he will be a formidable opponent.

I hope you have a fantastic weekend and whichever way you go, enjoy the quality of racing on show. Make sure you get involved in the coveration by leaving your comments below and let me know who you are backing in each of the big races this weekend and why πŸ™‚


Powered by WishList Member - Membership Software