Richard Mawer - Racing Profits

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Aintree Grand National 2019 – Day 3

Well another good day yesterday with LOSTINTRANSLATION landing for us at 100/30 in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase and showing why I regard him has one of the top novices of the season.

In this post I will cover the main three Grade 1’s of Day 3 at Aintree and then tomorrow I will post a separate post with my selections for the Grand National itself. If you watch the video below you will see the tactic I use to narrow down the field of 40 horses to the most likely winners of the race, this is a technique I have used over the years to find the winner on multiple occasions. So watch and enjoy 🙂

VIDEO | Picking The Winner Of The Grand National 2019

But before the big race we need to focus on the three Grade 1’s of the final day.

2:25 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle

I am going to keep faith with my Supreme Novice pick ANGELS BREATH who made a mistake three out when going strongly and never recovered. This step up in trip to 2m 4f will really suit and I can see him bouncing back.

RP TIP: ANGELS BREATH – 2pts to win at 3/1

3:00 Maghull Novices’ Chase

Despite winning the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham in November, LALOR never got going in the Arkle at the Festival. However, he can make amends here on a course where he has run twice and won twice, including the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle last year.

RP TIP: LALOR – 2pts to win at 7/2

3:40 Ryanair Stayers Hurdle

Although she is the obvious one I have to go with APPLE’S JADE to re-find her form after her disappointing run in the Champion Hurdle at the Festival, which was too bad to be true. The step back up to 3m will suit and with conditions in her favour, it is hard to see her getting beaten by this field.

RP TIP: APPLE’S JADE – 3pts to win at 7/4

I will post around lunchtime tomorrow with my picks for the Grand National, if you have not managed to narrow the field down by watching the video and using what I show in there.

Aintree Ladies Day – Day 2

Well a great start to the Aintree Grand National Festival with our first winner of the week in PENTLAND HILLS – who won the Juvenile Hurdle in fine style, battling all the way to the line to deny Fakir D’oudairies. Unfortunately the ground turned against verdana Blue and she was withdrawn, although I felt we were justified in taking on Buveur D’Air who was again turned over by Supasundae in the Aintree Hurdle.

On to Aintree Ladies Day today and four more Grade 1’s to look forward to.

2:20 Top Novices’ Hurdle

I am going with the progressive PRECIOUS CARGO based on the ground conditions and the fact that both his victories being on soft ground since moving to Nicky Henderson from Lucinda Russell, including an 8 length win at Sandown last month. I think both Itchy Feet and Aramon may struggle with the conditions, despite being higher rated horses on what they have shown so far.

RP TIP: PRECIOUS CARGO -2pts to win at 9/2

2:50 Mildmay Novices’ Chase

An interesting race that throws together the winner of the RSA Chase in Topofthegame against LOSTINTRANSLATION who was a decent 2nd in the JLT Novices’ Chase. I am going for Colin Tizzard’s charge to come out on top in this race today as he has only been beaten by Defi Du Seuil this year and I feel that is stronger form than the RSA form.

RP TIP: LOSTINTRANSLATION – 2pts to win at 10/3

3:25 JLT Chase (Melling Chase)

I feel conditions have just fallen perfectly for POLITOLOGUE and his 2nd to the mighty Altior in the Queen Mother Chase at the Festival in soft conditions, is the best form on show here. He won this race last year beating Min in similar conditions and with doubts about Waiting Patiently’s form, he is the natural choice for me.

RP TIP: POLITOLOGUE – 2pts to win at 5/2

4:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle

A wide open renewal of the Sefton Novices’ this year and although I like Champ and we backed him at the Festival in the Ballymore, where he went down by 2 lengths, I really liked the performance of his stablemate DOWNTOWN GETAWAY over the extended 2m 5f at Ascot in January when he beat some good horses to win in the final strides. The step up in trip will suit and at the prices I would prefer an each way bet on him.

RP TIP: DOWNTOWN GETAWAY – 1pt each way at 12/1

Enjoy Aintree Ladies Day and get ready for tomorrow and all the fun of Grand National Day.

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Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1

Well the dust has only just settled on Cheltenham and we are straight into Aintree and the build up to Saturday’s Grand National. As usual I will be focusing my efforts each day on the big races and finding you some winners, so make sure you check the blog each day for my latest post and also follow me on Facebook Racing Profits Page and Twitter @RacingProfits

The opening day of the Aintree Grand National Festival has no less than four Grade 1 races, so plenty to get stuck into.

1:45 Mainfesto Novices’ Chase

I am going to take on La Bague Au Roi, the favourite in the opener, with GLEN FORSA who was a convincing winner of the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Sandown, beating Kalashnikov by no less than 19 lengths. He was unlucky in the Arkle at the Festival when a rare mistake saw hum unseat Jonathan Burke and I can see him making amends here on a flatter tracker which will suit him.

RP TIP: GLEN FORSA – 2pts to win at 7/2

2:20 Doom Bar Juvenile Hurdle

I am sticking with the Triumph Hurdle winner PENTLAND HILLS who won despite making an early mistake in the race and it only being his 2nd start over hurdles. I could see plenty more improvement to come and he will love the Aintree track.

RP TIP: PENTLAND HILLS – 2pts to win at 2/1

2:50 Betway Bowl Chase

A competitive renewal this year and I like the chances of BRISTOL DE MAI after his 3rd in the Gold Cup and winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, he is the one to put it to the two at the top of the market. He can make up for finishing 2nd to Might Bite in last year’s race.

RP TIP: BRISTOL DE MAI – 2pts to win at 11/4

3:25 Aintree Hurdle

The prohibitive price of Buveur D’Air means I will be backing his stablemate VERDANA BLUE, who proved she is in superb form when winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, beating the favourite. She loves flat tracks and the conditions will be far more suited than in the Champion Hurdle. I would rather take 12/1 on her.

RP TIP: VERDANA BLUE – 1pt each way at 12/1

Enjoy Day 1 and don’ t forget to check back here tomorrow for my round up of Day 2’s action and another four Grade 1’s

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Gold Cup Day

Well a nice start to the day yesterday with DEFI DU SEUIL adding another +6pts to the week by winning the JLT and confirming the form over Lostintranslation, as predicted. Although we gave four back with Monalee finishing 4th in the Ryanair, although not as disappointing as Footpad who was well beaten. Top Notch was a big price and did not perform as I had hoped, so hands up for that one and Paisley Park proved the form spot on.

On to Day 4 of the Cheltenham Festival 2019 and the big race of the season, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Make sure you watch the video below to find out how to narrow down the field in the big races on the final day of the Festival and finish on a high.

VIDEO | Finding Winners On Gold Cup Day

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

The final day of the Festival kicks off with the Triumph Hurdle and a race I have had plenty of luck with over the years. My gut feeling is that Sir Erec is too short and especially against his stablemate GARDENS OF BABYLON who is the pick of Barry Geraghty for this race. He was only 6 lengths behind the favourite at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle and the addition of first time cheekpieces plus the more testing conditions should suit him and could see him reverse those placings.

RP TIP: GARDENS OF BABYLON – 1pt each way at 11/1

2:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The Albert Bartlett is a 3m Novices’ race and with all the rain we have had this week, it is going to take some getting, as we saw yesterday with the Stayers Hurdle over the same trip. As the betting suggests, this is wide open this year but I really like, despite the concern over Gordon Elliott’s stable form, is COMMANDER OF FLEET, who showed real improvement when stepped up from 2m to 2m 6f to win a Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown at the start of last month. He has plenty of stamina and this further step up should bring out further improvement.

RP TIP: COMMANDER OF FLEET – 1pt each way at 7/1

3:30 Gold Cup Chase

A real test of horse and rider, the Gold Cup is the pinnacle of jumps racing and only the very best compete in it, let alone win it. So the likes of Kauto Star and Best Mate who won the race multiple times, are few and far between. However, last year’s winner NATIVE RIVER has been my bet for the race since I saw the forecast for the week. He will love conditions and has the proven stamina to follow up last years victory.

RP TIP: NATIVE RIVER – 2pts to win at 9/2

So that is it, the Festival is over for another year. Enjoy the final day and look forward to Aintree next month, when I will be back blogging each day of the Grand National Festival.

Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 3 – Big Race Bets

Well only the two selections yesterday for us and while Battleoverdoyen was disappointing in the Ballymore, we got a great run for our money from SANTINI in the RSA, who battled all the way to the line and was only just beaten by Topofthegame.

On to Day 3 and Stayers Hurdle Day (still the World Hurdle to me) – Check out this video to show you how to find winners on Day 3.

VIDEO | Finding Winners On Day 3 Of The Festival

So the big three Grade 1 races on Day 3 are always tricky and the switch to the New course definitely suits flat horses.

1:30 JLT Novices’ Chase

I am sticking with DEFI DU SEUIL to confirm the form against Lostintranslation from Sandown in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, especially after yesterday’s result in the RSA where Topofthegame proved what a decent horse he is by winning. That stamps the form of the Exeter clash of the two, when Defi Du Seuil beat him by over 3 lengths.

RP TIP: DEFI DU SEUIL – 2pts to win at 3/1

2:50 Ryanair Chase

This is a cracking renewal of the Ryanair with Footpad, Road to Respect, Un De Sceaux and Frodon all having huge chances. However I am going to side with MONALEE who seems to come alive at the Festival and looked better than ever when winning at Gowran Park over this trip last month. He was due to head to the Gold Cup on Friday, but has been given a tilt at this instead and it could prove to be a wise decision.

RP TIP: MONALEE – 2pts to win at 5/1

3:30 Stayers’ Hurdle

I am staying away from the obvious and looking for some value behind Paisley Park in this and the one for me is TOP NOTCH who showed plenty of ability back over hurdles when 3rd behind Paisley Park at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle. He has won 3 of his last 5 runs and all under Daryl Jacob, so there is plenty to like about him at the price.

RP TIP: TOP NOTCH – 1pt each way at 14/1

Have a fantastic Day 3 and I will be back tomorrow for the final day and Gold Cup 🙂