The Flat = Profits

As usual, alot of your time is spent tracking horses early in the season, the new 2 yr olds coming out of the stables and running for the first time and the reappearance of horses making their seasonal debut and going back into the notebook. However, we are now starting to really see this hard work pay off, despite the weather.

I expect June, July, August and September to be bumper months for profits again this year and look forward to sharing those with my subscribers. If you want to get involved then either send me an email on richard@racingprofits.net or visit this page >>>> Email Selection Service

But that’s not all !!

Yes it is nice to get back bets which make you money but as an Email Subscriber you also receive both of my own personal lay systems for free, yes the very same systems which cost £19.95 each on my website. I will also show you how to trade on Betfair / Betdaq each day and make profit – the software i use and how to ensure that you become a profitable exchange trader.

When you combine all of this together, I do not think that anyone in the UK offers quite as much for such a reasonable price.

Look forward to a great summer,

Talk soon,

Rich

Well after months of planning, Racing Profits Guides Ltd is ready to be launched. I felt that what our industry really lacked was racecourse specific information, there was nowhere you could go for all the inside information on racing at a certain course. As a full time bettor I know that some of the most valuable information you can get is to know the course inside out and what horses do well at a specific course.

I decided to launch a network of 60 websites, each one dedicated to a specific racecourse and include everything to do with racing at that course:

• Racecourse Characterstics
• Jockey Course Guide to riding the course
• Video “Fly By” of the course
• Racecourse stats for jockeys, trainers, draw bias and breeding
• Video interviews with jockeys, trainers, owners, clerks of the course and regular punters at the course, to give a real inside view of the track
• Focused analysis of each day’s racecards at the course and shortlist of horses likely to run big races that day in a “Racing Preview”
• Analysis of all the races run in the day and horses to take away for future races in an in depth “Racing Results Review”
• Spotlight on local businesses

In short I wanted to develop a “one stop” resource for people going racing at the course, from regular punters to someone who goes once a year with friends and just wants more information on the course they are visiting.

The first course I have used as my model is Southwell and I was there yesterday to see the unveiling of our 12 month sponsorship package with the course, including sponsored fences, races and hoardings.

We have been in talks with the course for over 4 months now and were determined to make sure the courses gain maximum benefit from our involvement. The website will be live in the next couple of weeks, as we needed permission to record some of the “on course” footage whihc was agreed yesterday.

The plan is to follow up with websites for Wolverhampton, Kempton and Lingfield by the end of the year. We look forward to keeping you up to date with progress.

Talk soon,

Richard

I will list the horses by price.

1. Shakalakaboomboom – 14/1 – who could oppose Nicky Henderson in the form he is in at present and Shakalakaboomboom has plenty of experience and stamina and can be a major player.

2. West End Rocker – 16/1 – was unlucky to be brought down by another horse in last year’s race when going well, has plenty of proven stamina and is a great jumper with 14 chases under his belt he has plenty of experience too. Won here nicely December in the Becher Chase.

3. Killyglen – 18/1 – fell at the 4th last in last year’s National when challenging and was going well, may have slight stamina worries but on his day he can go close. He has 14 chases under his belt and so has plenty of experience.

4. SunnyHillBoy – 20/1 -well handicapped and has plenty of jumping experience, proven stamina with a 3rd in last year’s Irish National at Fairyhouse and won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month in fine style.

5. Giles Cross – 22/1 – a horse who loves to front run, so should stay out of trouble, another with 14 chases to his name and plenty of proven stamina, won the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. May need more testing conditions to be seen at his best but certainly one for the shortlist.

6. Treacle – 25/1 – a bit of a wildcard but ticks all the boxes with 15 chases to his name, proven stamina and a decent 3rd in the Grade 1 Hennessy at Leopardstown in February. Definately has strong place chance if not better.

Of the others:

On His Own and Cappa Bleu are both promising chasers but have only had 6 races over fences each so lack the experience profile of having 10 or more races over fences. The last 20 winners have all had this level of experience.

Synchronised is a real stayer but is now carrying 11st 10lb and has question marks over his jumping at times. Ballabriggs has every chance but would be the first favourite since Red Rum to win back to back nationals and he is also carrying 11st 9llbs today.

The other horse which has come for money this morning is SeaBass ridden by Katy Walsh aiming to be the first female jockey to win the National, the horse has won his last 7 chases but has a real question mark over the trip today, with his last win being over 2m.

What ever you choose – have a great day – enjoy the race and be lucky

I thought I would post up the video I prepared for last year’s Grand National which helped us find Ballabriggs, Oscar Time, State of Play and The Midnight Club. In 2010 I used this to narrow the field down to include Don’t Push it and Black Apalachi , State of Play and Big Fella Thanks – the top 4.

In the video I analyse all the stats for the race and show you which are my Top 10 tips for narrowing down the field from 40+horses to a more managable shortlist of 6 or 7.

N.B. Don’t forget I will be posting my shortlist here tomorrow by 12pm and giving my Email Subscription Subscribers my own personal selection for the race and for the Aintree Hurdle If you are interested in Subscribing you can ind all the details here>>Email Selection Service

Enjoy the video and talk tomorrow

So some decent profit in the bank to start the week and looking forward to the Lincoln at Doncaster this weekend and then on to Aintree.

Happy days,

Rich

Well Miss Tique flew home to win today at Chepstow – advised at 6/1 this morning to my subscribers and giving us a fantastic +15pt winner. On top of Oscar Sunset yesterday at Hereford a maximum bet at 5/2 and Destroyer Deployed at Southwell on Monday – another maximum bet at 5/2. So a great week to follow Cheltenham last week.

We finished Cheltenham on +12pts profit for the festival, after a quiet last two days with a couple of placed efforts, failing to build on Rock On Ruby at 11/1 going in with Sprinter Sacre on the first day and my bet of the festival, Son of Flicka at 25/1 in the Coral Cup, on the wednesday.

A satisfying month after the challenges of February and the weather playing havoc with the racing and form. It is settling down nicely now in the run up to Aintree, time to make hay while the sun shines

I have a couple of places open on the Email Selection Service for April if you want to jump on board. You can subscribe at anytime now by going to Email Selection Service – just click on the button below the video.

Talk soon,

Rich

I hope you have enjoyed my shortlists through the week and they have given you some great winners, as they have to us. Look forward to seeing you at Aintree

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle – 2m 1f

A competitive race this year with the Top 4 all having strong lines of form against one another and again I would expect the winner to come from these four on what has been shown so far at Cheltenham, although Balder Success is the unknown who could spring a surprise. The last 7 winners have come from the Top 4 in the market, so the market is a good solid guide. We are looking for strong recent form and 16 of the past 18 winners have all won on their previous start. Again French bred horses are strong in this race with the last 3 winners all being such. This is the one race at the festival where flat form is still an advantage and horses rated 80 in that sphere and campaigned over 1m 4f transfer well to this race.

Sadler’s Risk – was a decent flat horse, rated 95 on the flat. Won at Leicester over 1m 4f and campaigned over that trip before switching to hurdles in January, winning  at Kempton on debut and then following up with a 2^nd to Baby Mix at Kempton in the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle last month, the front two finished 14 lengths ahead of the 3^rd that day. 5 of the last 6 winners have come from the Adonis. Cheltenham could suit his running style more than Kempton.

Baby Mix – French bred he joined Tom George last year, making his debut here at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle trial in December and beating the short priced 4/7f Hinterland back into 2^nd place by 7 lengths. He then returned to Cheltenham in January where he really disappointed finishing last of the 6 runners and fading very quickly. However, he returned to make amends by beating Sadler’s Risk in the Adonis at Kempton. Hard to know which horse will turn up – can’t be trusted to be consistent.

Grumeti – another useful flat horse who rated 84 on the flat, although only campaigned around the 1m 2f mark. However, he made an impressive debut at Taunton at the end of December, when he beat the talented Ted Spread to win over 2m 1f. He then fell at Newbury in January but came back to win at Cheltenham beating Baby Mix and Pearl Swan, although Pearl Swan was first past the post – the places were reversed due to contact between the two on the run in.

Pearl Swan – the Paul Nicholls entry was disqualified when beating Grumeti here at Cheltenham at the end of January. He is another French bred flat horse and has plenty to like about him. He has been compared to Zarkandar by the yard for his turn of foot and he fits the profile of a Triumph Hurdle winner, only having his first run over hurdles at Taunton in January which he won nicely before the Cheltenham at the end of January. A genuine contender for the Triumph Hurdle.

Balder Success – another French bred of Alan King’s, although he only raced once over hurdles in France, he won nicely before moving to the King stable in November. He made his debut at Plumpton at the start of January and won convincingly. He then went to Ascot at the end of January and in February, winning both races again to put him in contention for this race. It is hard to call him Alan King’s 2^nd string. Although he is unproven at Cheltenham where the top four have the course experience, which is important. But that is not to say he could not excel here.

Of the others, the top Irish hope would be Darroun for Willie Mullins who finished 2^nd to Shadow Catcher at Punchestown on debut and then went on to win at Leopardstown in January beating Dermott Weld’s Hisaabaat.

Hisaabaat then went on to win the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown last month, beating Shadow Catcher and Country Wide Flame. So the form line through those 3 /4 horses is very similar, and maybe not of the level of the front 4 in the betting.

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – 3m

A similar trend has formed with the Albert Bartlett in that 6 of the past 7 winners were in the Top 5 in the betting and now Boston Bob has been declared in this race, I have no doubt that trend will continue. We are looking for horse 7yo+ who have previous Cheltenham form and must have contested 3m race previously.

Boston Bob  (7 yo) – Willie Mullins could not speak highly enough of this horse, coming from a point to point background he won a bumper at Hexham before going over hurdles winning in November at Navan, then December at Navan before heading to Leopardstwon in January to win again over 2m 4f on heavy ground. The only question mark has got to be will he get the 3m around Cheltenham ? I thought he would have gone for the Neptune Novices Hurdle over 2m 5f, however the yard clearly feel he will be fine with the trip and ground conditions.

Mount Benbulben (7 yo) – another Irish entry who comes from a point to point background, won two bumpers before stepping up to hurdles, where he slipped on debut at Galway in October but soon came back to win at Thurles and then in a grade 2 at Navan at the end of November over 2m 4f. He then took on Boston Bob back at Navan in December, coming 2^nd by 4 lengths. He has not been out since or raced over 3m before – so again questions must be asked about stamina.

Rocky Creek (6 yo) – another ex-point to pointer, now with Paul Nicholls, was a slight disappointment on debut at Exter in November when coming 2^nd over 2m 5f. The step up to 3m at Doncaster in a grade 2 at the end of January was just what he needed and he won nicely. May not have the quality of the front two in the market.

Sea of Thunder (7 yo) – was a quality point to pointer winning 2 of his 3 races in that sphere before moving to hurdles where he took time to settle but has now progressed nicely to this level, winning at Thurles in October, finishing runner up to Hazy Tom at Wetherby in November before heading to Cheltenham in December for the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3m where he showed his true quality to draw clear of the field only to fall at the last hurdle. He was dropped back to 2m 4f at the end of January at Leopardstown and although off the pace he looked to have his confidence back and jumped well. If he can find that December form he could win this.

Brindisi Breeze (6 yo) – another ex-irish point to pointer who moved to Lucinda Russell in November last year. He made his bumper debut at Musselburgh, coming 2^nd by a head before making his hurdles debut at kelso over 2m 6f at the end of December, he kept on nicely at the end of the race to win. He was then stepped up to 3m at Newcastle in a Class 4 which he won by 13 lengths at the end of January. He was then sent to Haydock to compete in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle last month and he again excelled, despite a couple of jumping errors and won by 12 lengths. Again this was on heavy ground – so the question has got to be how he will handle quicker ground.

Of the others there is Ipsos Du Berlais of Noel Meade who has decent form up to 2m 6f, came 3^rd to Boston Bob and Mount Belbulben in the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle in December and Benefficient of Tony Martin who won the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle last month at Leopardstown over 2m 2f but again is untested at 3m and was a surprise winner that day, may not be the most consistent performer.

3.20 Betfred Gold Cup Chase

The last 11 winners of the race have come from the Top 3 in the betting. Now Grand Crus has headed for the RSA Chase we are left with Long Run and Kauto Star dominating the market. No horse older than 10yrs old has won the race since 1969.

Long Run (7 yo) – Won the Grade 1 King George VI Chase at Kempton last year before winning the Gold Cup at last years festival, beating Kauto Star by 11 lengths.The biggest concern has got to be his jumping which is still prone to mistakes. Kauto Star then beat him at haydock in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in a race again littered with jumping errors. Again on Boxing Day at Kempton in the King George VI Chase Kauto Star beat him after jumping errors. Finally last month Long Run won at Newbury beating stablemate Burton Port into 2^nd. Must be question marks over his jumping again and hard to be confident.

Kauto Star (12 yo) – After falling in 2010,  last year’s 3^rd and then being pulled up at Punchestown in the following race it looked like age had finally caught up with Kauto. Although he has beaten Long Run at Haydock and Kempton since, the stamina sapping Cheltenham may be too much for him and despite him being at the top of the betting I can’t be having him at his age to come back and re-write history again.

Burton Port (8 yo) – finished 2^nd in the RSA Chase in 2010 before heading to Aintree and winning the Mildmay Novices Chase, he then went to the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase and finished 2^nd to Diamond Harry, ahead of Denman in 3^rd – even though he crashed through a fence which would have taken many horses down. He was then off the track injured until he reappeared last month at Newbury to just fail to beat Long Run. He has got to have every chance to put it to the front two in the market who both have question marks over them.

Weird Al (9yo) – finished 3^rd behind Long Run and Kauto Star at Haydock last time out in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase. This followed a decent win over Time for Rupert at Wetherby in October. He has been deliberately saved for the Gold Cup by the shrewd McCain yard and they feel he has the potential to cause an upset on his day.

Synchronised (9 yo) – winner of the Welsh National  at Chepstow in January 2011, he has plenty of stamina but had not won a Grade 1 Chase until the end of December when he went to Leopardstown and won the Lexus Chase over 3m beating Rubi Light and Quito De La Roque. Does not have the consistency to be a genuine contender to win the Gold Cup. But could spring a surprise on his day.

Midnight Chase (10 yo) – a multiple Cheltenham winner, including beating Diamond harry, Time for Rupert and Tidal Bay in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at the end of January. He came 5^th last year in the Gold Cup and has strong place credentials this year – but it would be a surprise to see him win. He has never won a Grade 1 chase in his career to date.

I cannot see a winner coming from outside these 6 in the market and it will probably be the front two who dominate but there have to be questions against each of them and at the prices better value may be found elsewhere in the market.

2:40 Ryanair Chase – 2m 5f

The common theme has been that all 7 winners, so far, have Cheltenham winning experience behind them and 6 of the 7 were in the Top 3 in the betting. However, looking at this year’s race, it is a decent quality field.

Riverside Theatre (8 yo) – Nicky Henderson has won the race once and he has a strong chance this year with Riverside Theatre, especially on his last run. He came 5th in the 2010 Arkle, so does not have the winning Cheltenham form. However, he came 2^nd to Long Run in the King George VI at Kempton last year, ahead of Kauto Star over 3m. He also won at Ascot over 2m 5f in the Betfair Chase in 2011 and then again last month after a 12 month absence from the track, due to a hairline fracture in his pelvis. The main concerns have got to be his poor performance last time he ran at Cheltenham and that he has fully recovered from his injury.

Somersby (8yo) – a horse who has failed to win at Cheltenham in four attempts, although his 2^nd to to Sizing Europe in the Arkle in 2010, when he finished strongest of all, but just failed to catch the winner, was an impressive display. He was a good 7 lengths ahead of Riverside Theatre that day. However in the 2m Queen Mother Chase last year he was found out a bit and made some jumping errors. He has looked far more comfortable since stepping up in trip, although on his last run at Ascot in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over 2m 1f he beat Finian’s Rainbow to win. A difficult one to trust.

Noble Prince (8yo) – the winner of the Jewson Novices Chase last year at the festival, he is one of the top Irish hopes in the race this year, although he has been questionable in his Grade 2 chases recently and particularly as they are over shorter distances – which was also the tactic last year before the Jewson, however he is against a far higher standard of horses this year but the step back up to 2m 5f makes him a strong contender.

Medermit (8 yo) – he finished 4^th to Captain Chris in last years Arkle, he then won a Grade 2 at Exeter in November, although this was due to Captain Chris unseating Richard Johnson. He then ran again at Ascot in the Grade 2 Amlin Chase, finishing 3rd behind Somersby and Masterminded before returning to Cheltenham in December to finish 2^nd behind Quantativeeasing. He chased home Riverside Theatre at Ascot in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase over 2m 5f. Another with a decent chance but difficult to see him winning.

Alberta’s Run (11 yo) – winner of the Ryan Air in 2010 and 2011, also won the RSA Chase in 2008 and stepped up to the Gold Cup in 2009, however it was a step too far and the drop back into the Ryan Air the following year was perfect. Clearly loves Cheltenham and must have a chance, although age is now against him. But as Kauto Star has shown – age is just a number J

Rubi Light (7 yo) – another Irish hope he was 3^rd last year to Alberta’s Run in the Ryanair by only 3 lengths and has to have a stronger chance this year for the experience, as he was only a 6yo then, but he finished a good 4 lengths ahead of Poquelin. He has been super consistent apart from falling at Gowran Park in October, at the last fence when beating Sizing Europe. Since then he has won a Grade 1 at Punchestown, came 2^nd in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown and won last month back at Gowran Park in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase. Only questionmark would be the going – he would not want it too quick.

The rest of the field have doubts in one area or another with the likes of Great Endeavour, Captain Chris and Poquelin just being too inconsistent to trust.

3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle – 3m

A race that has been dominated by Big Buck’s for the past 3 years. The last 10 winners have all come from the Top 4 in the market. All 12 previous winners were in the top 2 last time out which is a negative for Thousand Stars plus the fact that no Irish runner has won for 17 years. So in reality that leaves us with Big Buck’s, Oscar Whisky and Dynaste.

Big Buck’s (9 yo) – came over from France in 2008 and was initially tried as a chaser, finishing 7^th in the 2008 Jewson Chase at Cheltenham. He then switched to staying hurdles to devastating effect, beating the future Grand National Winner, Don’t Push It at Cheltenham on his 3m hurdles debut. He has now had 14 runs and 14 wins. So it is hard to see anything beating him.

Thousand Stars (8yo) is a good horse who has won here at Cheltenham over 2m 1f and finished 4^th last year in the Champion Hurdle behind Oscar Whisky and Hurricane Fly but he has not really inspired confidence with his latest two runs and it would be a real surprise to see him reverse form with Oscar Whisky, let alone Big Buck’s.

Oscar Whisky (7 yo) – came 4^th behind Menorah in the 2010 Supreme Novices, came back to take on Hurricane Fly in last year’s Champion Hurdlefinishing in 3^rd behind Peddler’s Cross. He has won both of his recent Cheltenham runs in December and January and had a freshener over 2m on the all weather at Kempton last month, winning comfortably. The question mark has got to be this step up to 3m at a strongly run pace. He will need to show real improvement to test Big Buck’s.

Dynaste (6 yo) – similar to Big Buck’s in that he is a French bred, which is a major plus. He has been a real progressive type who is improving with every run. He won nicely at Haydock in a Grade 3 over 3m in good / soft conditions by 8 lengths. He then went to Ascot for the Long Walk over 3m 1f and he was positively ridden, leading the race until the final couple of fences when he was overtaken and faded back to 4^th. He then returned to re-oppose Big Buck’s at Cheltenham in the Cleeve Hurdle at the end of January and he quickened away from the 2^nd last, although again he was reeled in by Big Buck’s and settled for 2^nd place, he finished a good 10 lengths ahead of Mourad in 3^rd.

Of the others, I cannot see Mourad reversing the places with Dynaste. Let alone challenging Big Buck’s.

Have a great day and talk tomorrow on Gold Cup day

Well today was a busy day with no less than 6 selections for my Email Subscribers to get stuck into. We had Monksland each way in the Neptune Novice Hurdle at 11/2 finished in 3rd. We then had Join Together each way at 6/1 in the RSA Chase, who was simply out paced when the front three pushed for home. We also had Big Zeb each way on the big race, the Queen Mother Chase at 13/2 who also placed in 3rd. I also advised Son Of Flicka, who had been as big as 40/1 and come into 25/1 this morning for the Coral Cup. A typical McCain plot planned over the past 12 months for this race, driving the horses mark down in preparation and then landing the big win – absolutely superb for all concerned

Our last two small selections failed to fire with Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter failing to build on the promise he has shown at home, including a promising work out at Wincanton with Rock On Ruby ( our big bet of yesterday ) and Sir Johnson in the Champion Bumper who disappointed on what he has shown so far. I had a feeling it would be a Willie Mullins year in that too – but ignored it.

So the end result is +25pts profit from the first two days of the festival and some nice bets to come yet to finish the week off. If you are a subscriber – I thank you for your loyalty over the year so far and am glad I can deliver what I promised you at Cheltenham – some nice big profitable winners. If not then you can get involved here – Email Subscription Service

I look forward to sharing my shortlist with you for tomorrows racing which is a little calmer with just the two big races to look at in the Ryanair Chase and the World Hurdle

A busy Day 2 ahead and below is the video I prepared showing you how to narrow down the field of the big races today:

Here is my shortlist for each of the big 4 Grade 1 races today:

2:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle – 2m 5f

A large field, and a race which has been dominated by the Irish, winning 4 out of the last 6 times. However this is a race in which the market has proved an accurate guide, with 24 winners from the last 26 being in the Top 6 in the betting. The other important stat to consider is that 27 of the last 28 winners have come 1^st or 2^nd last time out which is a negative against Make Your Mark.

Simonsig (6 yo) – Official Rating of 148 – ex-point to point and won Irish bumper at Fairyhouse before moving to Nicky Henderson. Won hurdles debut at Ascot, finished 2^nd Fingal Bay at Sandown in a Grade 2 hurdle over 2m 4f, but finished 16 lengths clear of the 3^rd that day in a smart performance. He was last out at Kelso last month and won fairly easily in preparation for this race. A negative has to be that Nicky Henderson has not won this race in 23 attempts.

Monksland (5 yo) – Officially Rated 144 – another ex- point to pointer from Ireland. Trained by Noel Meade he is a strong contender, having won his bumper debut and then both his hurdles races to date, including last time out at Naas in January in a Grade 2 over 2m 4f on heavy ground, proving his stamina. Although young, he is a progressive type who could well run a big race.

Batonnier (6 yo) – Non Runner

Sous Les Cieux (6 yo) – Officially rated 145. The winner of the grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse over 2m, he then looked outpaced at Leopardstown to suggest that he would be better over a longer trip. He then came back in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle over 2m 2f at Leopardstown where he was beaten by the much improved Benefficient who had won from the front. A decent 2^nd that showed that a further step up was what was needed and what he gets here in the Neptune. The negatives have to be his lack of Cheltenham form and being untried at the trip – but could easily be the surprise of the race at 8/1. Also entered for the Supreme Novices but this race makes far more sense.

Make Your Mark (5yo) is an interesting 5 yr old of Willie Mullins who has had a couple of runs over hurdles, including a win by 10 lengths last year at Leopardstown over 2m 4f on good ground in a 4 yo race. He struggled in heavy conditions at Leopardstown at the end of January finishing very tired, nearly 10 lengths behind Boston Bob. He is still young and there must be doubts about his stamina over this trip around Cheltenham.

Cotton Mill (5 yo) – ex-flat horse rated 96 in that sphere has switched to hurdles with ease and won all three of his outings so far. Last time out in the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle at Warwick he beat Ambion Wood and Highland Lodge to win. He has strong place claims and could spring a surprise.

Benefficient (6 yo) – ex-point to pointer who was pretty inconsistent until he won the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last month as a bit of a shock 50/1 outsider. He appeared to perform best on soft / heavy conditions up until then. The race was won more through aggressive front riding tactics than anything else and it has to be a doubt whether he could repeat such a run at Cheltenham. He could be anything and not one I could trust to perform.

2:40 RSA Chase – 3m 110yds

The first long chase of the meeting and a race which has been dominated by older more experienced horses – 10 of the last 12 winners have been 7 or 8 yrs old. Indeed the last 6 were all 7yr olds. One interesting stat is that the last 48 winners have all had a recent run in the same calendar year as the race, interesting because Grand Crus, First Lieutenant and Join Together all fail on that, having last run in December. The Irish have won for the last 3 years.

Grands Crus (7 yr old) – Also entered for the Gold Cup. He has plenty of Cheltenham form and won the Paddypower Hurdle here in November 2010 over 2m 5f , before returning to win the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle over 3m and finished 2^nd to the mighty Big Bucks by just under 2 lengths in the World Hurdle before switching to chasing and winning again at Cheltenham in November, at Newbury over 3m at the end of November and then at Kempton in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase beating Bob’s Worth back into 3^rd. As the top novice, you would hope he runs in the RSA this year but the temptation of going up against Kauto Star and Long Run may prove too much.

Bob’s Worth (7 yr old) – rated 150 over hurdles he was unstoppable at Cheltenham winning the Grade 2 Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2011 before going on to win the Albert Bartlett at last year’s festival. He then switched to fences and beat Cue Card in a Grade 2 Novices Chase at Newbury in November. He proved he has bags of stamina and heart. He stepped up in trip for the Feltham  at Kempton and was a little disappointing, losing to Grands Crus by over 5 lengths finishing in 3^rd behind Silviniaco Conti. However he stayed on well and showed plenty to like. He was out again last month in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase and beat Silviniaco Conti comfortably this time, following an operation to help his breathing. He made a couple of jumping errors but stayed on nicely to finish 2^nd behind the winner Invictus. A return to Cheltenham makes him a real contender for this race.

First Lieutenant (7 yr old) – ex-point to pointer, who made a real splash over hurdles beating Zaidpour in a Grade 1 race at Leopardstown before coming to Cheltenham and beating Rock on Ruby to win the Neptune Novices Hurdle at last year’s festival. He has not been quite as impressive in his Chase career, winning at Tipperary in a weak grade 3 Novice Chase, then finishing 2^nd at Cork before returning in November to win a rather unexciting Grade 3 at Cork. He was then soundly beaten by some 6 lengths at the end of December at Leopardstown in a Grade 1 Novice Chase over 3m. That performance does cast serious doubts over his credentials to win the RSA. But his Cheltenham form is a major plus – so who knows.

Join Together (7 yr old) – a nice ex-irish point to pointer who is now with Paul Nicholls. He goes well around Cheltenham and has had some great preparation races for this race.  He showed some real promise when he won at Cheltenham over 3m in a Novice Chase in November. He then returned in December to win another Novice Chase at Cheltenham over 3m, this time beating the impressive Mossley by some 12 lengths, probably the best thing to see in this race was that he won this on good ground, proving that he does not have to have soft conditions to perform. He is a genuine place candidate, depending on the final field.

3:20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase – 2m

A race which will centre around last year’s winner Sizing Europe and runner up Big Zeb with Finian’s Rainbow an interesting improver, although not yet at the level of the front two. It is an interesting stat that out of the last 11 champions defending their title, 10 have gone on to lose, with only Masterminded successfully winning two years in a row in 2008 / 2009. The last 29 of 30 winners have been at odds of 11/1 or less.

Sizing Europe (10 yo) – Has gone from strength to strength since winning last years race winning the Tingle Creek at Sandown in December and then the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown last month, beating Big Zeb by some 15 lengths. He loves Cheltenham and has strong claims to this year’s contest. Hard to oppose him doing the double.

Big Zeb (11yo) – Winner in 2010 and runner up last year – he is the model of consistency, coming in the top 2 in his last 10 chases at the highest level. He went on to beat Sizing Europe at Punchestown last May but has since been beaten by 15 lengths last month.  He is a rock solid jumper and can push the favourite all the way.

Finian’s Rainbow (9 yo) – won the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick before heading to last year’s festival to compete in the Arkle where he finished 2^nd to Captain Chris. He has since won a grade 1 and a grade 2 chase and was last seen at the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot where he beat Al Ferof back into 3^rd and just lost out to the talented Somersby. He may not have the experience and class of the front two but he certainly has the ability to cause an upset.

Outside the Top 3 in the market we are looking at Kauto Stone and Wishfull Thinking both of whom are at 16/1 and do not really have the consistent form coming into Cheltenham to challenge the Top 3, the other stat against them is that no horse for 34 years has been unplaced in the race prior to Cheltenham and then come here to win the Queen Mother. Realt Dubh has not raced for 314 days – so to expect him to come back and challenge at this level is a stretch.

5:15 Wetherbys Champion Bumper – 2m

A great race to end Day 2 and can give some real clues to future Cheltenham Festival Stars. The last 16 of 19 winners have come from the Top 6 in the betting so that is a great starting point. We are also looking for horse who won last time out with 17 of the past 19 winners being last time out winners. Also consider the horses age – with 5 & 6 yr olds winning 10 of the last 11 renewals of this race. Finally we have to take into account Willie Mullins and Irish entries in general as they had won 14 out of the last 19 Champion Bumpers – although they have not won for the past 2 years – so they will be looking to put that stat right this year.

So our bumper shortlist will be:

Moscow Mannon (6yo) – Irish trained – has won his last 3 bumpers and sets a fair standard including at Gowran Park and Fairyhouse in heavy conditions.  He also won a large field Galway bumper on good ground. Plenty of stamina.

New Year’s Eve (4yo) – Won his last 2 bumpers including last month at Market Rasen on good / soft – however he has age against him and both his bumpers to date were small fields of no more than 9 runners. So there would be a question mark over him handling such a large field likely to be run at a strong pace.

Champagne Fever (5 yo) – former Irish point to pointer and Willie Mullins main hope in the race, came 2^nd on his bumper debut but then won by 13 lengths last time out – so has to be a strong contender.

Royal Guardsman (5 yo) – won his bumper debut at Fontwell by some 11 lengths in a large field race. Then disappointed slightly next time out at Aintree, although he probably was not helped by the eventual winner’s jockey hitting him a couple of times in the face with his whip. Again in a large 17 runner field. Finally, ran last month at Ascot in another large field bumper and impressed again with a 7 length victory. The strongest of the home challengers.

Pique Sous (5 yo) – another Willie Mullins horse with strong claims, although disappointed in 3^rd on his bumper debut at Fairyhouse last year in a large 22 runner race on good ground. He then reappeared last month at Leopardstown on good to soft ground to win nicely. Negative is that he is French bred and they are currently 1 winner from 25 races in the Champion Bumper, with none bar the winner even making the frame.

 Sir Johnson (6yo)  of Peter Bowen’s who beat Royal Guardsman back into 4^th at Aintree in October and if the ground continues to dry out and quicken to good he has every chance. He has now com ein from 20/1 to 11/1 today.

The New One (4 yo) – won his bumper debut over 1m 6f atWarwick in November before making it 2 out of 2 here at Cheltenham on New Years day, again over 1m 6f but this time in Class 1 listed company. Both races were nice large fields of 15 or more runners. The negatives are his age and the step up to the 2m 110yds.

I hope you find a couple of winners today and have a great day, talk tomorrow.