Finding The Winner Of The Clarence House Chase 2016

A big weekend of racing coming up for us at Ascot and Haydock with a couple of horses running who I really fancy. I will focus on the Clarence House Chase in this article but make sure you check out the Racing Profits Email Selection Service if you want to know what I am betting on over the weekend and each day through the week.

Saturday 23rd January 2016 – Clarence House Chase – Ascot

Clarence House Chase AscotFirst run in 1989 when it was won by Desert Orchid, the race has always been a key trial for me, pointing to the likely winner of the Champion Chase at the Festival in March. Winners such as Master Minded, Spinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets have all gone on to win the Champion Chase.

Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times over recent years and is always a trainer to focus on. However, the strength of the race this year and lack of form for Vibrato Valtat, who finished nearly 8 lengths behind Sire De Grugy at Sandown in the Tingle Creek, make it hard to see him winning this year. It is a similar story for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race 3 times recently, although it is fantastic to see Captain Conan back in action, as I backed him in the Champion Chase in 2014, his last outing, and although he never traveled in the race, he was declared lame afterwards. However, after nearly 2 years off the track I can’t get involved with him.

Key Stats For The Clarence House Chase

13 of the past 13 winners have raced within the last 7 weeks
13 of the past 13 winners have been aged 9yrs or less
13 of the past 13 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
12 out of the last 13 have won over fences at 2m 1f or further
11 of the past 13 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting
9 of the past 13 winners have been French bred
9 of the past 13 winners won last time out

 

The above age stat is the main concern I have for the 10yo Sire De Grugy who has looked back near his best this season after some disappointing runs last year, including his 4th in the Champion Chase. He won the Tingle Creek and battled it out with Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. At the prices he would be my pick for this Saturday, but age may be against him.

Finally we have the short priced favourite Un De Sceaux who came down again last time out at Leopardstown when looking in command, it may well be the speed with which he attacks his fences that sometimes catches him out, but the stiff fences of Ascot could well be as big a test as the competition in the race. There is little doubt that with a clear round of jumping, he is the one to beat. But I would not be taking 8/11 on him.

Whichever way you go, enjoy the race and all the build up to the Festival over the coming weeks. Don’t forget to check out my Email Selection Service where I share my personal bets each day with my subscribers.

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About the Author

Richard has been involved in horse racing for the majority of his life. Born in Yorkshire he was brought up around the Northern tracks and has been a Professional punter, form student and race analyst for the past 20 years.

Richard’s passion for racing and betting is infectious and his innovation in profitable racing systems around backing, laying, dutching and trading on horse racing will help anyone develop a profitable betting strategy. He is responsible for The Scout Tips in the Daily Express and generates the ratings for use in the Daily Star racing pages.

He set up RacingProfits.net in 2009 as his personal horse racing blog and also the Managing Director of Racing Profits Guides Ltd running a network of 14 racecourse guide websites and 75 associated social media channels. He is based at the RPG offices at Lincoln University. You could not find a better mentor to help you make money from your betting on horse racing in the UK.

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