Day 3 is the calm before the storm at Cheltenham races, with only the two Grade 1 races to focus on. The key thing to remember about Day 3 is that the races move to the New course. In the following video I take a look at the key trends for the Ryanair Chase and the World Hurdle.
As you can see there are plenty of statistics and trends to help you narrow down the field in these two key races:
Ryanair Chase – 2m 5f
The Ryanair is one of the newer races on the card, only starting in 2004, so the statistical trends are still forming, however there are some trends to focus on:
- Previous Cheltenham Form – All 8 winners have run at Cheltenham in a major race and 7 have won at Cheltenham previously too.
- No Irish Winner – Of the 8 winners they have all been home trainers and the Irish have yet to win the Ryanair.
- Top 3 in the market – The last 7 of 8 winners have been from the top 3 in the market – so this must be your starting point.
- Proven Stamina – Even though the race is only 2m 5f you should look for a horse proven over 3m.
- 158+ Rating – All the winners have been rated 158+
- Age – 8 – 10 yr olds have won the last 5 Ryanairs in a row.
- Trials Races – Paddypower Gold Cup in November has thrown up 5 of 7 winners. The previous year’s Ryanair Chase has thrown up 3 winners who have returned to win.
The World Hurdle – 3m
The World Hurdle is the big stayers hurdle race of the festival and it has been dominated by Big Bucks over the past few years. He is a french bred and 6 of the las 12 winners have been french bred horses. Here are the other major trends to consider:
- Top 4 in the market – last 10 winners have all come from the Top 4 in the market.
- Recent Form – All the last 12 winners have finished 1st or 2nd in their previous run.
- Cheltenham Form – 16 of the last 18 winners ran the previous year at the festival.
- Negative – Champion Hurdle form – No winner has won the Champion Hurdle the previous year since 1992.
- No Irish Winner – Again no wins from 17 for the Irish in this race.
- Age – Avoid 5yr olds – No 5yr old has won the race since 1972 when it was first run.
- Avoid Front Runners – No horse has made it all and won as a fdront runner since 1996.
- Trials Races – The main staying hurdles to focus on for form are the Cleeve Hurdle here at Cheltenham in January has thrown up 3 of the last 5 winners. The Long Walk Hurdle at Newbury has thrown up 5 winners in the last 10 years. Also look at the previous years World Hurdle, that has thrown up 5 horses who have returned and won.
I hope that helps you to narrow down the fields on Day 3 and find a few winners. Don’t forget – If you want my own personal Cheltenham races selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival. Last year we had some great winners and finished +26 pts up over the 4 days.
About Rich Mawer