Are You On The Ascot Acca ? Value or Not ?
Well it is the evening before Royal Ascot, the best flat meeting in the world, in my opinion.
This year has the added spice of five short priced favourites running on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, but what is the best way to get some value out of these ? A 5 horse Ascot Acca seems to be the way most punters are going – so lets look at each horse and the races they are running in and see if this is a realistic bet and what price we could get on the bet 🙂
- Tuesday – 2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes – 13. RIBCHESTER – Current Odds – 4/5
- Tuesday – 4:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes – 2. CHURCHILL – Current Odds – 4/6
- Thursday – 4:20 – Gold Cup – 4. ORDER OF ST GEORGE – Current Odds – Evens
- Friday – 3:40 – Commonwealth Cup – 3. CARVAGGIO – Current Odds – 5/4
- Friday – 4:20 – Coronation Stakes – 12. WINTER – Current Odds – 4/7
Don’t forget I will be sharing all of my personal back bets over Royal Ascot this week with my email subscribers on – Racing Profits Email Selection Service each day. After 4 winners from 6 bets last week, we are flying.
So let’s take a look at each race and the chances of them. Personally I feel that two of them will let the bet down.
Ribchester – Queen Anne Stakes
Richard Fahey’s colt Ribchester won the Lockinge at Newbury by nearly 4 lengths beating Lightning Spear who is currently 2nd favourite for this. I can not see that from being turned around and I know people will say that the faster ground could catch him out, but he is so versatile when it comes to conditions and his close 3rd to The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on fast ground last summer (less than half a length) would be more than solid enough form to win this. Banker.
Churchill – St James’s Palace Stakes
Unbeaten in his past 7 outings he rightly heads the market, but I actually fancy Barney Roy in this, to reverse the 2000 Guineas form. Barney Roy took a keen hold at the start and stumbled badly on the downhill part of the dip at Newmarket but stayed on well up the hill to the finish to only finish a length behind Churchill. Ascot will suit his running style and I feel Churchill is vulnerable, to him or even Thunder Snow who chased him home in the Irish 2000 Guineas, on soft ground, he will improve for the faster conditions. If the Acca gets through this race intact then it could well be on.
Order Of St George – Gold Cup
Another who I feel is vulnerable is the short priced Order Of St George. Yes, he ran a cracking race to win last year’s Gold Cup by 3 lengths beating Mizzou but he has hardly set the world alight since then. This is a better race than that, with the likes of Henry II stakes winner Big Orange in fine form and Simple Verse in opposition. He has been targeting the defence of his crown, but I could not take evens on him.
Carvaggio – Commonwealth Cup
Aidan O’Brien describes him as one of the fastest he has ever seen and Carvaggio looked unstoppable with each run as a 2yo. He has just had the one run this season at Naas in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, which he duly won by an easy 5 lengths. There are a couple of contenders in this, with Clive Cox’s Harry Angel and Charlie Appleby’s Blue Point, but I feel they will be fighting it out for the minor honours behind Carvaggio. Banker.
Winter – Coronation Stakes
I find Winter difficult to oppose in this field and the manner in which she built on her 1000 Guineas win in May, to win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh, winning easily, with the nearest pursuer nearly 5 lengths back, I cannot see the likes of Dabyah having enough in the locker to get to her. Only heavy rain could dent her chances in this race. Banker.
How to play the Ascot Acca ?
Unfortunately there do not seem to be any bookmakers offering “ACCA Insurance” on this bet, if any of the legs don’t win – but you can get best price of 19.17/1 on the bet from Unibet and Sky are offering 18.4/1 on the bet – so it may be worth a small investment to keep your interest across the week.
Remember that you can join my Email Selection Service and find out all the personal bets I am placing at Royal Ascot this week, as I share them with my subscribers each day – Click here to join – Racing Profits Email Selection Service