I thought I would post up this video which I prepared for the 2010 Grand National.
I used the statistics and trends I share in the video to narrow the field down to include Don’t Push it and Black Apalachi , State of Play and Big Fella Thanks – the top 4 in the race that year.
We used it again in 2011 to help us find Ballabriggs, Oscar Time, State of Play and The Midnight Club.
Then last year we used the same techniques to find Sunnyhill Boy which we backed each way at 20/1 and was grabbed in the final few yards by Neptune Collonges. It also identified Sea Bass and Cappa Bleu for our shortlist – although the winner escaped us for the first ime in 3 years.
Your Video – Picking The Winner of the 2013 Grand National
As you will see I use trends and statistics for the race and share with you my Top 10 tips for narrowing down the field from 40+horses to a more managable shortlist of 6 or 7.
Take the time to use these 10 statistics to narrow down the field and then analyse the form of your remaining shortlist to make your final decision on who to back:
1. Weight – Start with the weights – No winner had carried more than 11st 1lb for 27 years before Don’t Push It in 2011, who carried 11st 5lbs to victory and then last year Neptune Collonges carried 11st 6lb. Also minimum weight – Only 2 horses in the past 20 years have carried the minimum 10st and won. So dismiss all horses over 11st 1lb and carrying the minimum 10st. Still your starting point.
2. Age – The last 22 winners have all been between 8 – 12yrs old. This is the “sweet spot” in a chasers age, they have the maturity and stamina to get round Aintree. Avoid 6 / 7 yr olds pr horses older than 12yrs old.
3. Sex – No mare has won the race since 1951 – avoid mares.
4. Stamina – Must have proven stamina. The past 18 winners have all won a race over 3m or more that season.
5. Experience – Connected to age but the past 22 winners have all run at least 1o times over fences.
6. Greys – Only 2 greys have ever won the National. No Grey since 1961 has won the race.
7. Blinkers – In the past 38 years only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. So avoid horses with blinkers.
8. Betting Odds – As with any handicap, the market is a key indicator. The most likely price of the winner is between 7/1 – 16/1 – particualrly on Good ground. Only heavy conditions tend to upset this statistic, although Neptune Collonges won at 33/1 last year in 2012 just beating Sunnyhill Boy at 16/1. But 16 winners in the last 22years have been in that price range – so this year it will be more than likely.
9. One Win That Season – Non of the last 22 winners had more than one win that season before going on to win the National.
10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the National again in following years – so it is fairly safe to discount previous winners from your shorlist, that included Ballabriggs last year who was 6th and Don’t Push It the year before who was 3rd.
So if you have been ruthless you should have now narrowed the field down from 40 horses to 6 or 7 main contenders for the race.
Join My Subscribers On My Email Service
If you want to join my Email Subscription Service then I will share with you all my selections for the next few days at Aintree, including my final 2 for the big race on Saturday. I have a couple of spots remaining – so head over to the Racing Profits Email Selection Service and subscribe now.
On Saturday Morning I will post up my final shortlist for the 2013 Grand National for you to compare with your own list.
Talk then.
