Irish Racing – Wednesday 24th November 2010

November 24, 2010 By Richard Leave a Comment

A couple of tips from Kev today:

12:25 Naas – He’s Our Man – course & distance bumper winner - last month shaped with promise to take 4th on hurdles debut at Punchestown behind Oscars Well , after bludering at the 2nd to last when challenging and was eased down. Top conditional jockey on board today and will love the conditions – 1pt each way – currently 10/1 with Ladbrokes.

12:55 Naas – River Liane – promising young horse who has had his problems. Back from a good break after 2 very good chase runs, most notable of which was his beating of An Cathair Mor here at naas last October. Reported to be schooling really well and gives value against the top two in the market. 2 pts to win at 9/2 from VC Bet.

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing, News

Irish Racing Selections- Sunday 14th of November.

November 14, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Morning punters,

A couple of disapointing runs yesterday but Katy’s Girl ran a stormer in 2nd behind the very smart looking newcomer from the Mullins yard. Onto a very busy today today and some Sunday will be this busy as its when the best Irish Racing is on.

Punchestown-12.35- Rigour Back Bob 1pt win @ 3/1 generally

Yes he did disapoint first time up, but there were plenty of others too as there was shrewd support for him. However he has conditions firmly in his favour today going back right handed at a track he likes. He is potentially a cut above these despite Sivota being quite impressive last time. He is bound to have come on alot for his first outing and looks set for a much better run. If you cross out his debut run and assume he is now a fitter horse, he is no 3/1 shot.

Punchestown-1.05- Realt Dubh 2pts win @ 1/1 bet365

The yard regard this horse as probably their highest hope for Novice Chases this season. It was unfortunate he fell last time as I feel he would have gone on to win the race. Should no trouble whatsoever taking care of these rivals today given a clear round, he jumps fine.

Punchestown-1.40- Thegreatjohnbrowne 2pts win @ 11/8 Paddy Power

Has his problems last season after a very encouraging start to his novice hurdle campaign. Early reports from the yard suggested he was back to best and he showed that when winning impressively on his chase debut. Another big run is expected today and I fully expect him to have the measure of Healys Bar.

Punchestown-2.15- Solwhit 2pts win @ 13/8 William Hill

I was delighted when Tom Segal put up Donnas Palm this morning in his pricewise column as I knew Solwhit’s price would be decent. Solwhit is only a 6yo and is entitled to improve upon what hes done so far. He is the classiest horse in the field and will take some beating. Voler La Vedette looked good first time out, but she always does and I just think she’ll run soundly without winning. Donnas Palm is a lovely horse Ive always liked, but Im pretty sure I know how good he is and at 5/2 currently available, he makes no appeal.

Punchestown-2.50- Miss Fancy Pants 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 generally

A nice individual, again from Noel Meade’s stable and Ive heard she’s recently had a breathing operation and is fit and ready to go today. They think she could be well handicapped and thats good enough for me to have an e/w interest at her current odds.

Punchestown-3.25- Mackey’s Forge 1pt e/w 9/2 Blue Square

Ran well in defeat behind Start Me Up last time, who won impressively against better opposition this week. 9/2 today rates great e/w value.

Cork-12.55- Ross Na Righ 1pt win 11/4, Killary Bay 0.5pt e/w 10/1

Cork-3.05- Down in Neworleans 2pts win @ 2/1 bet365

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Selections- Saturday 13th of November

November 13, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Punchestown-1.05- Corskeagh Royale 1pt win @ 4/1 Bet365

Champion Bumper runner up in 2007 who has never really fulfilled his early potential. But he can ran some creditable races in defeat and can get off the mark today dropped back in trip after an encouraging display last time out over 2m6f at Galway. A friend of mine has a share in this horse, he is fit and ready for this and they believe his summer wind operation is starting to benefit him judging from recent homework. Its an above average beginners chase but I believe Corskeagh Royale can put his experience to good use at a course he’s won at before.

Punchestown-2.05- Accidental Outlaw 1pt win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

Decent flat maiden who won going away over course and distance on his 2nd run over hurdles. For my money hes going to be winning a graded hurdle this season and if thats the case he’ll surely have to go close in this. Silas Mariner is a potential improver who scored well last week. But although he should prove superior to his previous conquerers in the race, I think Accidental Outlaw could prove too good at the finish.

Punchestown-3.15- Katy’s Girl 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1, Flying Light 0.5pt e/w 25/1 both with Paddy Power

One of my dutch bets for today and the only one in Ireland. Katy’s Girl has a fair level of Handicap form and should put her experience to use and reach the frame at a nice 12/1. Has a promising 5lbs conditional on board which is a positive. Flying Light finished mid division in a Cork maiden hurdle earlier in April. He was hampered early and ran very green after that. However he shaped well as a novice hurdle prospect for this season and clocked a decent TS of 74 in what was fair race. If hes learned from his early experience and strengthened up, he’ll run a nice race and is a value price at 25/1.

Thats all for Today,

Kev.

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Advice – Using Top Speed To Make Your Winning Selections

October 31, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Irish Racing

Irish Racing – Using Top Speed Ratings To Make Your Selection

First of all, this piece is written from an idiot’s side of the fence. I don’t quite have the levels of academia or patience required to trouble the number crunching,expert trading, borderline mathematician’s of the professional punting world.

But we can be thankful for those guys and use their work to our advantage. The likes of Adrian Massey have revolutionised the way punters can use and interpret data related to all aspects of a horse race and its participants.

The sheer amount of information available to us on Irish Racing is mind boggling. It’s all too easy to become obsessed, trying to find the Golden Goose of a system which will lead to the road of riches. This doesn’t exist, not in the long term anyway as the layers in various forms will become alert to a good thing. An obvious example relates to Adrian Massey’s Top rated horses. When the ratings first became available a good few years back, his top rated selections produced LSP (level stakes profit) of 600pts+ per annum. The bookies soon caught wind of this and priced their markets accordingly and the margins of profit soon became tighter and tighter until backing his top rated blind became a one way ticket to ruin.

So Why use Top Speed Ratings When Looking at Irish Racing ?

Just because the bookies have taken alot of the value out of Top Rated Horses, don’t think for a second that this means they shouldn’t be used as a an extremely valuable point of reference, an aid to help along with your form reading skills. To my mind having the ability to read form in Irish Racing, Racing Post or Raceform being the best, is the foundation of being a winning punter. To interpret the official handicap system (if it’s a handicap) and race conditions, along with interpreting trainers, jockeys, draws and any other variants is the next step in your selection process. Then once you’ve a good feel for the races you perform well in, it’s easy to pencil a picture in your head of the likely winners of a race and even the odds they are likely to be, at least their general position in the market, without even needing to look at the forecast prices or early odds.

At this point a punter has speed ratings to refer to as well as the Racing Post official ratings (RPR). RPR ratings are compiled using racing post standard times for each distance at each course in British and Irish Racing to give a description, in number form, of a horse’s ability. The likes of Kauto Star and Sea the Stars have pushed the barriers of what a horse is capable of through this system of ratings in recent years. We’re forever deliberating the true worth of certain form and with good reason, as the system is undermined daily by any number of factors that affect the outcome of a horse race.

In Irish Racing, I Find that Top Speed ratings, compiled by Dave Edwards and produced by The Racing Post online and newspaper, provide the ideal platform to contradict RPR ratings and gain an edge. Topspeed use those same standard times along with ground conditions and other factors to produce a figure that represents the horses speed rating for each run. Technically speaking, the closer the TS figure is to the RPR figure, the more solid the form. The RRP figure is invariably bigger than the TS and horses that match or better their RPR are scarce in comparison to the amount of horses, though there’s usually a few every day. TS figures are not to be used as a stand-alone way of making selections. As I said above, before the use of speed ratings can become profitable, you must have established a good knowledge of the race or races and horses you target.

Top Speed figures are at their most accurate at well rounded distances. 5f,6f,1m,1m2f,1m4f on the Flat and 2m,2m2f,2m4f and 3m over Jumps have always appeared to the easiest distances to read. Having said that its easy enough to interpret them at most courses and distances.

Irish Racing – A Practical Example Of Using Top Speed Ratings

Here is an imaginary 14 runner Novice Hurdle in Ireland that I have peeled down to 5 possible winners through simple interpretation of form. It’s what I feel is a typical example of what I’m after when looking for a selection in these races which I tend to specialise in. So each horse will have the RPR and TS for its latest run. Ill also include odds they might be in a real race market.

Horse A: RPR- 132 TS- 60…3/1

Horse B: RPR- 131 TS- 82…6/4

Horse C: RPR- 119 TS- 118…6/1

Horse D: RPR- 122 TS- 98…4/1

Horse E: RPR- 108 TS- 97…10/1

Now, where does the value lay when taking those ratings and prices at face value?

I’ll try to elaborate on my thought process.

Racing Profits - Irish Racing What should be immediately obvious is A and B have the strongest official level of form with respective RPR’s of 132 and 131 and they are priced accordingly at the head of my market. Out of those two, you’d have to side with horse B at 6/4 with the TS of 82 over A’s 60- at face value remember i.e without factoring in any form, distance, ground etc. So now my next challenge is to find something to beat it and we’ll assume I think horse A isn’t suitable for an each way smash at 3/1 and the value must lie elsewhere. Let’s talk about horses D and E. Closely matched on TS figures but a full stone, 14lbs, apart on RPR ratings. I would generally feel, form depending, that 4/1 is the better bet here. If horse E however, at 10/1, had run well in or won a race which had produced subsequent winners to boost the form and undermine the low RPR since the race, then it could make it value to beat D if his form is questionable- you get the gist. Horse C has the 2^nd lowest level of official form on RPR of 119, but has produced easily the best TS figure on 118- which is close enough to 119 to suggest it was truly ran race and an accurate speed figure. But he’s 6/1 which would be seen by many as a touch skinny considering he’s rated 13lbs below horse A to RPR who is 3/1.

It’s not skinny to me though. 6/1 would certainly represent the value in most cases, particularly in maiden and novice hurdles, where the ability of a young horse is more open to suggestion than more experienced horses. But it applies to all races at a deeper level with several layers of form to interpret. This all comes easy through practice and time. Non Hcps are certainly easier races to concentrate on to utilise Topspeed, I rarely back in Irish Racing handicaps because of a lack of resources for Irish racing. I have Adrian Massey and one other Rating I refer to for British racing which is why I do have a few bets in handicaps in Britain, particularly for my Dutching system.

It’s important to note that a slowly ran race will often produce high RPR to represent the “true” form and class of the race regardless of the time, but a false TS which will be very low. It’s in this circumstance that you have be cute and try to identify the true worth of the form as its unfair to suggest that the horses that ran well in the race aren’t capable of producing better TS, just as its unfair to suggest the RPR is too high. Two answers here really. The form has to stand the test of time and produce solid winners and placed efforts since the run. Also, it’s easy to look back at the horses previous figures to get a truer picture of its ability. If there are too many questions to answer, the only answer is to move onto the next suitable looking race for investment.

In general, punters have never had it so good in Irish Racing. But too many choose to make irrational betting decisions. Reading form doesn’t stop at looking at the finishing position of a horse’s last 3 or 6 runs. In order to stay ahead of the bookmakers and layers, one must find selections whereby there’s a clear discrepancy between your opinion and theirs with which you feel you can profit from. They have to be underestimating your selection’s chance based on everything you have at your disposal, whatever you use in your selection process.

Hopefully we can get some videos produced in the near future to aid punters in pinpointing winners by interpreting form and speed ratings for certain Irish races. I’m also in talks with a colleague of mine who has produced some unique class ratings for handicaps in Britain. I’m hoping he’ll reproduce these for Irish Racing sometime in the future, exclusively to Racing Profits. Early signs are showing that these ratings could revolutionise handicap betting in Ireland. It’s a mountain of number crunching for him to do but he has the required levels of skill I mentioned early on. As things stand, there simply isn’t very much of any substance in terms of Irish ratings, speed or class. So there is room for a new era of betting on Irish Horse Racing in the next year or so, I’d like to think Racing Profits Ireland will be a cog in that wheel- with me driving it.

Please check out my other article on Irish Racing Maiden And Novice Hurdles.

Until then, Topspeed is doing a fine job in making Irish Racing pay.

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing, News Tagged With: adrian massey, irish racing advice, RPR ratings, top speed ratings

Irish Racing Selections- Sunday 31st of October

October 31, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Well The Bull Hayes ran with great credit on his debut but the winner looked smart too. Couple of little bets for today before we close this month out and crack on for the season proper next month.

Cork-1.15- summersinerrill 3pts e/w 10/1 ladbrokes

Has a great shout here at reversing placings with Magical Memoir with a nice pull at the weights. I expect a big run from him today with Bryan Cooper taking 5lbs off now aswell.

Cork-1.45- Mount Helicon 5pts to win @ 11/10 Paddy Power and others

Classy on the flat and has bundles of stamina. Step up in trip is bound to suit and he looks like a good thing on paper. Tango Knight could give him most to do.

Cork-2.55- Knockraha Lad 2pts e/w @ 9/1 Paddy Power

Has a massive e/w shout basedon his last run. clocking a TS of 109 which is on a par with those at the head of the market. If he reproduces that with a bit of improvement, he can land a blow or two at the finish.

Good Luck

Kev

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Selections- Saturday 30th of October

October 30, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Morning guys,

Well October has been a challenge to test best of punters on both sides on the pond. Both Richard and I have had a relatively quiet month without doing much or any damage to our banks. But rest assured, from November onwards things will pick up. As of November 1st, I’ll be posting P/L on all my selections on here, to level stakes. The odd strong bet will be advised to double stakes. One meeting at Naas today and an air of caution is advised, its a meeting ill be having a couple of bets at, but my main focus will be on watching several promising individuals and taking some notes. Richard often stresses the importance of having more than one stream of income and having a varied betting strategy, and Ill again stress its importance during these tough months where we are changing codes. Putting all your eggs in one basket is risky, for one, and rather boring and one dimensional. Proffesionals pride themselves on having the ability to successfully think outside the box to make money over time, to do that you have to be 3D at least!

Onto a couple of bets for today, as its the weekend!!

Naas-2.05- Rigour Back Bob 3pts to win @ 5/2

Very tough old fashioned gelding with plenty of class to back it up. Its clearly an open race with any one of 5 capable of winning. But at this stage in the season he has the least questions to answer in terms of race fitness and race conditions. He is well treated at the weights and although he should come on for the run, I’d expect him to be fit enough to run close. Son Amix seems the main danger at weight but again, its open race.

Naas-3.05- The Bull Hayes 3pts to win @ 9/2, Highland Brave 1pt e/w @ 20/1

The Bull Hayes was a fair stayer on the flat, rated 100, and I know that the yard fancy him to put up a bold show on his hurdling debut. Its a leap of faith based on two poor recent runs on the flat. But hes the pick of these with no hurdling form and carries a fair ammount of stable confidence. At 20/1 Highland Brave rates the value of those with hurdling form based on his run at Clonmel when 4th LTO.

Good Luck today

Kev

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Selections- Sunday 24th of October

October 24, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Galway-3.40- Start Me Up 5pts to win @ 2/1 Paddy Power and others

A 3 time bumper winner from Charlie Swans stable, who won at Galway last year on soft ground. Is getting the hang of hurdling now and would have won last time out but for an inspired ride from Ruby on Inspector Clouseau. Clocked a solid TS of 110 there and will take all the beating today under Davy Russell.

Wexford-2.25- High Magic 4 pts to win @ 9/4 bet365 and Paddy Power

Unlucky not to have lost his maiden tag. Just failed to get up at Ballinrobe in August and was unlucky behind Big Game Hunter last time out at Clonmel, a good run that produced a TS of 105 and puts him ahead of these on official ratings aswell. Andrew MacNamara takes the reigns again and they look set to put up a bold bid.

Wexford-2.55- Wango 2pts e/w @ 11/2 Paddy Power

Rates a solid e/w option based on his last run when he stayed on encouragingly to come 5th behind Inspector Clouseau and Start Me Up. Fully funded will be hard to beat now hes dropped back in trip but Wango should give him the most to do.

Cheers and tune in again next weekend,

Kev

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Selections- Saturday 23rd of October

October 23, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Wexford-2.15- Wordly Wise 2pts e/w @ 4/1 generally

A fairly classy handicapper on the flat and has shown ability over hurdles, enough to suggest he can win his maiden and go on to do well in handicap company. Stamina is a slight concern but his speed figure of 107 is superior to the favourite and he looks set to go close following a promsing 3rd to Anshan Dreams LTO.

Wexford-4.20- Lucky Wish 2pts e/w @ 4/1 generally

Hasnt had the best of luck! Still in contention in the Galway Plate when he came down at the last and wasnt done any favours LTO in the Kerry National when he was badly hampered 4 out. This shorter trip and smaller field should fill him with more confidence and I cannot see him out of the first 3 here on ground that’ll really suit him aswell.

Wexford-4.55- Rockys Choice 2pts e/w @ 5/1 Bet 365

Four time winner on the flat in 2007 but has been a bit hit and miss in his NH career thus far since two hurdle wins for Tim Vaughan last year. Has clocked some decent TS figures without quite getting home over fences on his last couple of runs. The drop back in trip will suit today and with more experience under his belt, I see no reason why Davy Russell cant go close on him here today.

Have a good day and tune in tomorrow for a couple of exciting bets,

Kev.

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Selections- Sunday 10th of October

October 10, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Morning guys,

Well yesterday Gala Dancer landed the odds in fine style and made alot of punters happy who smashed the life out of it in the market. Lucky we got on early. Haste Ye Bach travelled like the winner all the way around under B J Cooper before falling when coming to win his race 2 out, that was a bitter blow considering we got on at 10/1!! But this is the nature of jumps racing. Onto today.

Limerick-2.30- Drumfire 2pts e/w @ 7/2 Blue Square and Tote

This is a hot little novice hurdle with many outsiders that could reach the frame at bigger prices. But im hoping today class will finally prevail for my old friend Drumfire. Ive followed the horse on the flat and im convinced he’ll have a nice career over hurdles too. He’s stepping up to 2m5f which is sure to suit him right down to the ground. He didnt have the pace to go with speedier types in tacky ground LTO, that run can be easily crossed out here on better ground. Big Game Hunter appears to be our chief danger but i can see Drumfire having too much toe at the finish.

Limerick-3.00- Let Yourself Go 3pts to win @ 6/4 Blue Square

A nice 8yo chaser from Adrian Maguire’s yard. Still lightly raced with only 8 runs over fences and was a much improved performer last season, most notably when 2nd to Captain Cee Bee. He’s unbeaten in two starts here at Limerick and Adrian Maguire has a creditable record at the Munster track. Its obviously significant that Nick Williams has sent over smart chaser Cornas at the market reflects that. But there are question marks over his ability to beat less exposed types these days and I feel Let Yourself Go has the edge on ground he’ll love.

Limerick-4.00- Gimlis Rock 2pts to win @ 9/2 Paddy Power and Bet 365

A very likeable gelding from Jessica Harringtons stable, he’s a solid flat performer and a has solid novice hurdle form last season. Disapointed in a handicap last time out but that run can be easily cross out. Had a couple of these well beaten at Punchestown back in April and looks set to run a big race today.

Limerick-5.40- Warne 2pts e/w @ 7/1 Blue Square

Edward O’Grady and Adrew MacNamara have a formidable record at Limerick and this is their only partnership of the day. Warne is a talented horse but has yet to show his class over fences. As a novice hurdler he beat the classy Premier Victory by 17 lengths over 2m5f here at Limerick. If he can leave his last run behind, reproduce his penultimate run when 2nd behind Essex and improve for the return to a track he’s won at, its easy to see him going very close here indeed.

Cheers and see you next weekend.

Kev

Filed Under: Irish Horse Racing

Irish Racing Selections- Saturday 9th October

October 9, 2010 By KevinOMalley Leave a Comment

Fairyhouse-2.10- Haste Ye Bach 2pts e/w 10/1 Paddy Power

A very well bred mare from the Dessie Hughes yard, she is slowly learning her trade and starting to show some promise. Her best effort came LTO at Navan over 2m4f where she was travelling as well as anything until 2 out and she weakened. The drop back to 2m2f today should suit ans Ill take her to be fighting it out at the finish with Galianna and Style of Campile, both of whom have obvious claims.

Fairyhouse-2.40- Gala Dancer 3pts e/w 11/4 bet365 and Paddy Power

A nice gelding from the Paul Nolan yard. His horses are just starting to come to hand after a dry summer and this one looks to have an outstanding chance in a race with little depth. The Willie Mullins bumper horse looks ok but as i said in the Maiden Hurdles article, these horses are worth taking on with no hurdling experience and watched for future races. Gala Dancer has a progressive profile and ran a cracking race behind Ballyhauna, clocking a TS of 108, which is ahead of the field here. Again the drop back 2f will help as he races prominantly and will stay on strongly.

Its still very early days in the Irish season and this time of year can be soul destroying at times!! But if you stick to a well rounded betting strategy with 3 or 4 streams of income, you will do just fine. Mark my words, theres some very exciting stuff going to be happening on here this season.

Hold tight,

Kev.