Morning guys,
A fantastic day yesterday and you should have made around +40pts profit to the advised stakes and prices.
Quickly moving onto today and another busy one. I’ll outline my main bets then give you my shortlist for todays Irish Grand National.
Redcar:
4.20- residence and spa
An exposed maiden out of Tim Easterbys stable but looks to have strong claims of breaking his duck today back at Redcar, where he posted a TS of 74 over 7f last season, staying on strongly in the closing stages. A repeat of that performance will see him go close today under David Allen and Im going 2pts e/w at 7/2
5.30- wild hysteria
From Tom Tate and another exposed horse who should go close to getting off the mark today off a mark of 58. Ran at Redcar over 5f back in September and posted a promising TS of 61 which suggests he should be up to winning as a 3yo off this mark. Has a snug pitch in stall 3 and I can see him racing up with the pace and hopefully finishing off his race well to at least place. Im going 2pts e/w at 4/1.
Warwick:
4.10- Sylvestris/Logans Legend
Sylvestris holds the pick of form here and stands out on the clock. A run at Kempton will have brought her on and blown away any cobwebs. At 11/4 she screams out for an e/w smash and Im going 2pts e/w. Logans Legend should follow her home- Shaped with promise at the backend of last season at Kempton, staying on very well in the closing stages. Steps up in trip for her turf debut and Barry Hills tends to do very well with once raced 2yo’s on the first run as 3yo’s. Im going 1pt e/w at 13/2 with Sportingbet with equates to a maximum 3pt e/w bet on the race.
Ffos Las:
5.05- Junior Jack/Tenby Jewel
Another relatively short priced e/w dutch bet, but I have a good strike rate with such bets and when they work out well, it can be rather spectacular. Junior Jack had a nice education in bumpers and was given to me as one to follow in novice hurdles but hasn’t won yet. I reckon we can cross off his last run and he’ll certainly get 3 miles. Im going 2pts e/w at 7/2. Tenby Jewel is exposed but has a sound level of form, certainly good enough to go close here at Ffos Las where he has ran two solid races in defeat and posted decent speed figures. Im going 1pt e/w at 6/1.
Huntingdon:
2.15- The Strawberry One
A dual bumper winner on good ground who was unlucky to be badly hampered early on at Towcester last time out and did very to finish off her race so well. This looks a good opportunity to get off the mark for an in form yard and Im going 4pts to win at 2/1.
Fairyhouse:
2.35- Donnas Palm/Son Amix
A lot of money for Voler La Vedette this morning and she is a strong favourite at 15/8. However Ive always liked Donnas Palm and I think he can run her close today with conditions in his favour and a tongue tie and blinkers fitted for the first time. Im going 1pt e/w at 15/2. Son Amix is a lovely little horse with bags of speed but saw out 3 miles round Cheltenham last time too, posted a huge TS figure of 141 when 2nd behind Buena Vista. I backed Son Amix that day and strongly fancied him to win but you cant plan ahead for a Pipe trained winner with no form at all!! Son Amix’s form suggests he is better going left handed but I think he is a versatile horse and a strong pace today will do him good stepping back in trip. He could sneak a place in an open Grade 2 contest and Im going 1pt e/w at 14/1.
3.45- Prima Vista
This horse has a touch of class and I fancy him to run a big race today with a 6lb pull over Dare To Doubt. Is undoubtedly better going right handed and the ground will suit. Has an impressive turn of foot off a good gallop and Paul Carberry rides him very well. Im going 2pts e/w at 6/1. Raithlin is dangerous, however I just wonder why the trainer decided to go here rather than the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Punchestown considering he finished a solid 6th behind Al Ferof at Cheltenham. Perhaps he is looking for the easy option or perhaps the horse is over the top for the season after a hard race. We’ll see.
IRISH GRAND NATIONAL- The Shortlist:
Shakervilz- 16/1
Caim Hill- 18/1
Some Target- 12/1
Sebadee- 50/1
Saddlers Storm- 18/1
I suppose 0.5pts e/w on each may not go amiss, but not necessarily advised. The two that look to have the most solid claims are Some Target and Caim Hill. Its a strong trends race and these fit the bill. Shakervilz only falls at one trend in that he hasn’t ran for a years, but Im including him on a hunch.
Have a fantastic day and you’ll hears from me again soon
Kev















Your Comments – Have your say….