Category Archives for "Daily Selections"

hennessy gold cup at newbury racecourse 2016

VIDEO | Cheltenham Festival 2017 – Day 1 – Champions Day


Well after all the waiting and tracking of horses the Cheltenham Festival 2017 is finally here and as always the excitement the night before is almost unbearable, as is the number of texts and emails I am receiving 🙂

How To Find More Winners At The Festival

I  thought I would share this Guide To The Cheltenham Festival in which I take a look at the main races on Day 1, including how to make a shortlist of the most likely contenders in the key Cheltenham races of the day – the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Arkle Chase and the most valuable race on Day 1, the Champion Hurdle.

I recorded the video a few years ago, but the content and stats I use are the ones I use today along with the horses I have tracked towards the Festival, to make my final decision on who to get involved with each day. I recorded a video for each of the four days and will share them over the coming days.

The main aim of this video is to help you narrow down the fields in the main three races of the day. As we looked at in the first video, the first two days races are run on the old course at Prestbury Park. The course is likely to have been watered if there has been no rain in the week running up to the start of the festival, to produce the required Good / Soft ground conditions. So Day 1 can be the slowest conditions of the week.

Supreme Novices Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+

It is great to start the festival off with a winner, as we did in 2010 when we put up Menorah for the Supreme Novices and he won for us at 12/1. Here is what to consider for your shortlist of horses for the Supreme Novices:

  • Irish Entries – The Irish have tended to dominate this race winning 8 of the last 13 – so take a close look at the main Irish yards entries for the race.
  • The big two UK Trainers – Henderson / Nicholls – look for stamina horses that they have put into the race.
  • Last Time Out Winners – 13 of the last 15 winners of the Supreme have won their previous race.
  • National Hunt v Ex-Flat Horses – since the watering of the course to ensure that there is Good / Soft ground on Day 1 – this has swung massively in favour of National Hunt bred horses rather than ex-flat horses – so side with them.
  • Trials Races – Look at who won the previous year’s Champion Bumper, the Deloitte Hurdle and Royal Bond Novice Hurdle
  • Experience is key – Look for horses with 3 or more runs over hurdles – this accounts for 5 of the last 7 winners.
  • Recent Run – in the past 20 yrs all the winners except two, have had a run within the previous 45 days.

Arkle Chase – 2m – 5yo+

The first big chase of the Festival and comes straight after the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

  • Top Rated Hurdler – The major stat is that is has been dominated by top rated hurdlers, with the last 11 winners from 12 having been rated 142 or more over hurdles. This has to be your starting point when narrowing the field down.
  • Oppose Favourites – Only 2 favourites have won the race in the past 20 years.
  • Odds of less than 11/1 – Only 1 winner in the past 20 years has been at odds greater than 11/1 on the day. So focus on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites.
  • Last Time Out Run – The selection must have come 1st or 2nd in his previous run.
  • Age – Oppose young 5yo horses.
  • Trials Races – Grade 2 November Novices at Cheltenham, Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December, the Kingmaker Novices Chase at Warwick and the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown.

Champion Hurdle – 2m – 4yo+

The most valuable race of Day 1 with over £200k in prize money. Here is what you should consider to help you narrow down the field:

  • Won their previous start – One of the strongest trends for any race at Cheltenham is the fact that 24 of the last 28 winners of the Champion Hurdle won their previous race.
  • Recent Run – They should of run in that calender year.
  • Previous Cheltenham form – A win or place at Cheltenham already in their career. 17 of the last 26 winners have finished in the top 4 at the previous years festival. Particularly the previous year’s Champion Hurdle. 7 of the past 11 placed the previous year.
  • Age – Again younger horses 5yo do not tend to do as well – only 1 winner since 1985.
  • Irish Entries – As with the Supreme Novices – the Irish target this race on Day 1 with 9 Irish winners from the past 14.
  • Top 6 In The Market – 18 of the last 21 winners have come from the top 6 in the market.
  • Trials Races – The previous years Champion Hurdle, the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, 3 of the last 4 winners have competed in this race, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, Rabobank Champion Hurdle and Istabraq Hurdle.
  • Negatives The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton – only 1 horse from 21 has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle after winning the Christmas Hurdle. Also The International Hurdle at Cheltenham only produced 1 winner in 37 years.

I hope this helps you enjoy Day 1 of the festival and find a few winners. Go through each of the three Grade 1 races and narrow the field down to the main contenders.

If you want my own personal selections for each day of the festival, feel free to join my Email Selection Service here>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service – each day I will be sharing my top 2 / 3 bets of the day for the festival.

In 2016 we had some great winners and finished +25 pts up over the 4 days.

Aintree Grand National Festival 2016 – Day 1

Well it is only a few weeks since the end of the Cheltenham Festival and we are getting ready for the three day Aintree Grand National Festival 2016 and all the build up to the Crabbies Grand National on Saturday.

Personally it is always a profitable meeting for me and although many of the winners from the Festival tend to come here and fail to impress, it is a meeting which makes the punters motto that “losses are merely lent” come true. There have been many a horse I have backed at the festival who have come to Aintree and more than redeemed themselves and this year looks like being no exception.

Aintree Day 1 Preview

Day 1 starts with no less than four Grade 1’s for us to enjoy. If you want my full race preview for each race then make sure you check out Aintree Racecourse Tips where I have just finished writing a preview of all 7 races.

I have a number of bets lined up for my subscribers on Day 1 of the meeting and I will be sharing these on the Racing Profits Email Selection Service tomorrow morning.

The opening race of the meeting is very interesting with Arzal heading here and skipping Cheltenham, Sizing John arriving on the back of a a decent 2nd behind Douvan in the Arkle and the unlucky Garde La Victoire who came down in the JLT at the festival and is one of those which I feel could bounce back here at Aintree.

Solwit and Paul Carberry (right) winning The John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle from Holywell (centre) Pic Dan Abraham - racingfotos.com Aintree 6.4.13

The Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle is next up and it is hard to get away from what Ivanovich Gorbatov achieved when winning the Triumph hurdle at the festival, however he was well beaten by Footpad at Leopardstown earlier in the year and I could see the Triumph form being reversed in softer conditions. I also wonder if Sceau Royal is far too big a price at 20/1 and could bounce back from a showcker in the Triumph. There are plenty of alternatives which offer more value than the favourite in this.

The Betfred Bowl Chase is the chance for another of my big bets at the Festival to redeem himself in Cue Card, who I am still convinced would have been with Don Cossack if not beaten him in the Gold Cup without coming down. I just can not see Djakadam or Don Poli having enough to beat him in this race.

Finally Annie Power heads to Aintree and I was at Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle, and can testify that the way she powered up the hill was very impressive, however she is stepping up markedly in trip, on softer ground and at a track she has not run at, so I will not be taking the price on her in this. I have an alternative bet which will pay far more.

More Crazy Offers From The Bookies

As with Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival, it is crazy season for the bookmakers again with their offers and this is the one I think is well worth taking advantage of for Aintree Day 1:

BetBright-CueCard-Thursday

 

 

 

 

A cracking offer and if you have not got on board yet then grab it now. Enjoy Day 1 and I will be back with my preview for Day 2 – Ladies Day tomorrow.

Have a great day,

rpsignature

 

 

 

 

Hennessy Gold Cup & Fighting Fifth Hurdle Week

Well a great weekend for subscribers to my Email Selection Service as we landed two winners from three bets, with Thomas Brown winning nicely at Ascot on Friday for us and then one of my favourite horses Rock On Ruby Hennessy Gold Cup Articlegoing in on Saturday in the Coral Cup. My only frustration was our bet on Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday. He traveled well through the race and out jumped Cue Card at nearly every fence, but lacked the full race fitness to see out the race and Cue Card finished in fine style, staying on well to win by 7 lengths. Clearly the breathing op has made all the difference to Cue Card finishing off his races and the Tizzard camp were rightly up beat about his chances of heading to Kempton for the King George on Boxing Day and then on to the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

Another Superb Weekend Of National Hunt Racing Ahead

More fantastic jumps action this weekend with the highlight being the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, both give a real line on the Festival.

The weather looks to be the key factor to keep an eye on over the week ahead and Newbury is currently reporting the chase course as being Good To Soft, however with rain sweeping across the country over the next few days this could well change by race day. The softer the better for Saphir Du Rheu and he looks likely to go off favourite for the race, despite a quality field including Coneygree who won at the meeting last year, the resurgent Bob’s Worth who looked back to his old self when winning the Betfred Hurdle at Aintree, he won the Hennessy in 2012.

As for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle up at Newcastle I am hoping that Irving stays in the race, as he looked like he would come on no end for the run at Haydock on Saturday, although this will be a far tougher proposition with horses such as Hargam, Arctic Fire and My Tent Or Yours likely to line up against him. If the ground stays soft though, my fancy would be Peace and Co who is currently on offer with Bet365 at 5/1 antepost.

I will be keeping a firm eye on that forecast before getting involved later in the week – talk then.

 

 

glorious goodwood day 1

6 Winners in 6 Days & Now Glorious Goodwood !!!

Morning all,

Well it has been another fantastic week for everyone here at Racing Profits, especially those of you who are members of the Email Selection service with 6 winners in the past 6 betting days including:

Mon 23rd – Ayr – Layla’s Hero – 9/2

Tues 22nd – Southwell – Danby’s Legend – 7/4

Weds 23rd – Sandown – Perfect Muse – 7/4

Thurs 24th – Doncaster – Nanton – 9/2

Friday 25th – Thirsk – Burren View Lady – 5/1

Monday 28th – Ayr – Thorntoun Care – 3/1

After a quiet start to the month it has exploded into life and in perfect time for my most profitable meeting of the year at Glorious Goodwood, where I had 6 winners last year and made +34pts profit. So all very exciting.

If you would like to get involved with the email selection service then head over to >> Racing Profits Email Selection Service

I have already sent out three big selections for Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood today, so if you are quick you can get on them.

Glorious Goodwood Discount – 50% Off the 6 Weeks Trading Training Course

I have had a number of emails from people asking me if I will be offering a discount on the trading training over Glorious Goodwood, as I have not offered one for a few weeks. So I have decided to offer the 50% Discount until Sunday only !!!

If you have always wanted to learn how to trade on Betfair and make a regular income from your Trading each day then this is ideal for you. If you check out this link you will see that it is aimed at Beginners and taking them through each step to making profit each day from trading:

6 Weeks Trading Training – Overview Videos

As you can see it is ideal for beginners but also anyone who has struggled to make money from their trading on horse racing markets. I walk you through each step and build your skills and knowledge week by week, until you will be a confident trader who makes profit each day from their trading.

If you would like to take advantage of the Goodwood 50% Discount offer then please use this link here:

6 Weeks Trading Training – Glorious Goodwood 50% Discount Offer

Have a great week and enjoy Glorious Goodwood, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask.

rpsignature

horse racing at royal ascot

Royal Ascot Races – Day 5 – Tips, Race Trends, Stats & Lays

Well our first blank day with our tips on the Racing Profits Email Service – We had two 2nd placed efforts in Bold Sniper and Horsted Keynes each way at 8/1 today,so even more work needed for tomorrow to finish the great week we have had with more profit.

Here are the trends for the two big Royal Ascot races for today, the final day of Royal Ascot:

3:45 Hardwicke Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 4f – for older horses 4yo+

Here are the top race trends and statistics from the past 11 years for the Hardwicke Stakes.

11/11 – Had won over at least 1m 2f before
11/11 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
10/11 – Placed last time out
9/11 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (3)
7/11 – Had run at Ascot before
6/11 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 5 winners)
5/11 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won their previous race
2/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

Race Notes

You only need to look at the trainer stats to see that three trainers target this race – Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute, so pay close attention to their entries. Ryan Moore has won the race twice in recent years so check which horse he has the leg up on. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2.

4:25 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes – Group 1 – 6f – 3yo+

Here are the Diamond Jubilee Stakes race trends and stats:

10/11 – Previous distance winners
9/11 – Had run at Ascot before
9/11 – Failed to win their last race
8/11 – Aged 5 or younger
7/11 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/11 – Previous Group Race winners
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Returned a double-figure price
4/11 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/11 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
1/11 – Winning favourite (joint)

Race Notes

A notoriously tricky race and this year’s renewal is no exception. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15.5/1

Patrick’s Lay Of The Day For The Final Day of Royal Ascot

Here is Patrick’s Lay for the final day of the meeting:

3:05 Ascot – Arab Spring – LAY

Get My 2 Selections For Tomorrow

My Selection’s for the last day of Ascot are available to everyone who is a subscriber on the Racing Profits Email Selection Service so make sure you click the link to get involved.

2 Days Left to Grab the 50% Discount On The 6 Weeks Trading Training

Remember that until Sunday I am offering a 50% Discount on the entire course, dropping it from the RRP of £395 down to £195. However once Royal Ascot has finished I will be returning the course to the full price of £395 and there will be no exceptions.

You can use this link to take advantage of the June 50% Discount now – 6 Weeks Trading Training – June 50% Discount Offer

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