Category Archives for "ascot"

York Ebor Festival

Are You On The Ascot Acca ? Value or Not ?

Well it is the evening before Royal Ascot, the best flat meeting in the world, in my opinion.

This year has the added spice of five short priced favourites running on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, but what is the best way to get some value out of these ? A 5 horse Ascot Acca seems to be the way most punters are going – so lets look at each horse and the races they are running in and see if this is a realistic bet and what price we could get on the bet πŸ™‚

  1. Tuesday – 2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes – 13. RIBCHESTER – Current Odds – 4/5
  2. Tuesday – 4:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes – 2. CHURCHILL – Current Odds – 4/6
  3. Β Thursday – 4:20 – Gold Cup – 4. ORDER OF ST GEORGE – Current Odds – Evens
  4. Β Friday – 3:40 – Commonwealth Cup – 3. CARVAGGIO – Current Odds – 5/4
  5. Β Friday – 4:20 – Coronation Stakes – 12. WINTER – Current Odds – 4/7

Don’t forget I will be sharing all of my personal back bets over Royal Ascot this week with my email subscribers on – Racing Profits Email Selection Service each day. After 4 winners from 6 bets last week, we are flying.

So let’s take a look at each race and the chances of them. Personally I feel that two of them will let the bet down.

Ribchester – Queen Anne Stakes

Richard Fahey’s colt Ribchester won the Lockinge at Newbury by nearly 4 lengths beating Lightning Spear who is currently 2nd favourite for this. I can not see that from being turned around and I know people will say that the faster ground could catch him out, but he is so versatile when it comes to conditions and his close 3rd to The Gurkha in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on fast ground last summer (less than half a length) would be more than solid enough form to win this. Banker.

Churchill – St James’s Palace Stakes

Unbeaten in his past 7 outings he rightly heads the market, but I actually fancy Barney Roy in this, to reverse the 2000 Guineas form. Barney Roy took a keen hold at the start and stumbled badly on the downhill part of the dip at Newmarket but stayed on well up the hill to the finish to only finish a length behind Churchill. Ascot will suit his running style and I feel Churchill is vulnerable, to him or even Thunder Snow who chased him home in the Irish 2000 Guineas, on soft ground, he will improve for the faster conditions. If the Acca gets through this race intact then it could well be on.

Order Of St George – Gold Cup

Another who I feel is vulnerable is the short priced Order Of St George. Yes, he ran a cracking race to win last year’s Gold Cup by 3 lengths beating Mizzou but he has hardly set the world alight since then. This is a better race than that, with the likes of Henry II stakes winner Big Orange in fine form and Simple Verse in opposition. He has been targeting the defence of his crown, but I could not take evens on him.

Carvaggio – Commonwealth Cup

Aidan O’Brien describes him as one of the fastest he has ever seen and Carvaggio looked unstoppable with each run as a 2yo. He has just had the one run this season at Naas in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes, which he duly won by an easy 5 lengths. There are a couple of contenders in this, with Clive Cox’s Harry Angel and Charlie Appleby’s Blue Point, but I feel they will be fighting it out for the minor honours behind Carvaggio. Banker.

Winter – Coronation Stakes

I find Winter difficult to oppose in this field and the manner in which she built on her 1000 Guineas win in May, to win the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh, winning easily, with the nearest pursuer nearly 5 lengths back, I cannot see the likes of Dabyah having enough in the locker to get to her. Only heavy rain could dent her chances in this race. Banker.

How to play the Ascot Acca ?

Unfortunately there do not seem to be any bookmakers offering “ACCA Insurance” on this bet, if any of the legs don’t win – but you can get best price of 19.17/1 on the bet from Unibet and Sky are offering 18.4/1 on the bet – so it may be worth a small investment to keep your interest across the week.

Remember that you can join my Email Selection Service and find out all the personal bets I am placing at Royal Ascot this week, as I share them with my subscribers each day – Click here to join – Racing Profits Email Selection Service

Finding The Winner Of The Clarence House Chase 2016

A big weekend of racing coming up for us at Ascot and Haydock with a couple of horses running who I really fancy. I will focus on the Clarence House Chase in this article but make sure you check out the Racing Profits Email Selection Service if you want to know what I am betting on over the weekend and each day through the week.

Saturday 23rd January 2016 – Clarence House Chase – Ascot

Clarence House Chase AscotFirst run in 1989 when it was won by Desert Orchid, the race has always been a key trial for me, pointing to the likely winner of the Champion Chase at the Festival in March. Winners such as Master Minded, Spinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets have all gone on to win the Champion Chase.

Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times over recent years and is always a trainer to focus on. However, the strength of the race this year and lack of form for Vibrato Valtat, who finished nearly 8 lengths behind Sire De Grugy at Sandown in the Tingle Creek, make it hard to see him winning this year. It is a similar story for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race 3 times recently, although it is fantastic to see Captain Conan back in action, as I backed him in the Champion Chase in 2014, his last outing, and although he never traveled in the race, he was declared lame afterwards. However, after nearly 2 years off the track I can’t get involved with him.

Key Stats For The Clarence House Chase

13 of the past 13 winners have raced within the last 7 weeks
13 of the past 13 winners have been aged 9yrs or less
13 of the past 13 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
12 out of the last 13 have won over fences at 2m 1f or further
11 of the past 13 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting
9 of the past 13 winners have been French bred
9 of the past 13 winners won last time out

 

The above age stat is the main concern I have for the 10yo Sire De GrugyΒ who has looked back near his best this season after some disappointing runs last year, including his 4th in the Champion Chase. He won the Tingle Creek and battled it out with Sprinter Sacre in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. At the prices he would be my pick for this Saturday, but age may be against him.

Finally we have the short priced favourite Un De Sceaux who came down again last time out at Leopardstown when looking in command, it may well be the speed with which he attacks his fences that sometimes catches him out, but the stiff fences of Ascot could well be as big a test as the competition in the race. There is little doubt that with a clear round of jumping, he is the one to beat. But I would not be taking 8/11 on him.

Whichever way you go, enjoy the race and all the build up to the Festival over the coming weeks. Don’t forget to check out my Email Selection Service where I share my personal bets each day with my subscribers.

horse racing at royal ascot

Royal Ascot Races – Day 5 – Tips, Race Trends, Stats & Lays

Well our first blank day with our tips on the Racing Profits Email Service – We had two 2nd placed efforts in Bold Sniper and Horsted Keynes each way at 8/1 today,so even more work needed for tomorrow to finish the great week we have had with more profit.

Here are the trends for the two big Royal Ascot races for today, the final day of Royal Ascot:

3:45 Hardwicke Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 4f – for older horses 4yo+

Here are the top race trends and statistics from the past 11 years for the Hardwicke Stakes.

11/11 – Had won over at least 1m 2f before
11/11 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
10/11 – Placed last time out
9/11 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (3)
7/11 – Had run at Ascot before
6/11 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 5 winners)
5/11 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won their previous race
2/11 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

Race Notes

You only need to look at the trainer stats to see that three trainers target this race – Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute, so pay close attention to their entries. Ryan Moore has won the race twice in recent years so check which horse he has the leg up on. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2.

4:25 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes – Group 1 – 6f – 3yo+

Here are the Diamond Jubilee Stakes race trends and stats:

10/11 – Previous distance winners
9/11 – Had run at Ascot before
9/11 – Failed to win their last race
8/11 – Aged 5 or younger
7/11 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/11 – Previous Group Race winners
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Returned a double-figure price
4/11 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/11 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
1/11 – Winning favourite (joint)

Race Notes

A notoriously tricky race and this year’s renewal is no exception. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15.5/1

Patrick’s Lay Of The Day For The Final Day of Royal Ascot

Here is Patrick’s Lay for the final day of the meeting:

3:05 Ascot – Arab Spring – LAY

Get My 2 Selections For Tomorrow

My Selection’s for the last day of Ascot are available to everyone who is a subscriber on the Racing Profits Email Selection Service so make sure you click the link to get involved.

2 Days Left to Grab the 50% Discount On The 6 Weeks Trading Training

Remember that until Sunday I am offering a 50% Discount on the entire course, dropping it from the RRP of Β£395 down to Β£195. However once Royal Ascot has finished I will be returning the course to the full price of Β£395 and there will be no exceptions.

You can use this link to take advantage of the June 50% Discount now – 6 Weeks Trading Training – June 50% Discount Offer

Royal Ascot Tips

Royal Ascot Racing Tips – Day 4 – Race Trends,Tips & Lays

Well another day and another Royal Ascot winner for all of my Racing Profits Email Service subscribers with Cannock Chase winning the Tercentenary for us. We also had Patrick Weaver’s “Lay of the Day” in the same race, he had put up Barley Mow who finished unplaced again.

Just the three big group races for Day 4 of the Royal meeting:

2:30 – Albany Stakes – Group 3 – 6f – 2yo Fillies

Here are the top race trends and statistics from the past 12 years for the Albany:

11/11 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
11/11 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
11/11 – Never raced at Ascot before
10/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Won their previous race
6/11 – Returned a double-figure price
6/11 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (2) or Noseda (2)
3/11 – Ran at Sandown last time
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
2/11 – Previous winner over 6f
Race Notes

Always a wide open sprint the Albany is not a great betting race but always guarantees plenty of surprises. One statistic from the past 9 years is that 4 of the winners lost their maiden status in this race. The trainers who target this race are Mick Channon, Richard Hannon and Jeremy Noseda – so pay close attention to their horses in the betting. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

3:45 – King Edward VII Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 4f – 3yo only

Here are the trends and statistics for the King Edward VII Stakes:

11/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the market
11/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/11 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/11 – Had never raced at Ascot before
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
6/11 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
2/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/11 – Trained by John Gosden
Race Notes

The market is a key guide in this race with it usually paying to focus on the top 3 or 4 horses in the market. You are also looking for a horse who has run at least twice in the season. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1.

4:25 – Coronation Stakes – Group 1 – 1m – 3yo+ Fillies

Course Notes: Held on the round course.
Here are the Coronation Stakes race trends and stats:

12/12 – Had won over at least 7f before
10/12 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
8/12 – Had won over 1 mile before
6/12 – Had run at Ascot before (2 winners)
6/12 – Winning favorites (1 joint)
6/12 – Ran in that seasons English 1,000 Guineas
6/12 – Were unplaced last time out
3/12 – Ran in that seasons Irish 1,000 Guineas
2/12 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien

Race Notes

The big race on the Friday at Royal Ascot the Group 1 Coronation Stakes is for 3yo fillies over the round mile. A strange stat for this race is that 50% of the winners form the past 12 years were unplaced in their previous race. Again it is a race which throws up few surprises and you should focus on the top of the market. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

Patrick’s Lay Of The Day For Day 4

Each day Patrick Weaver, Racing Editor from the Daily Express, will put up a daily lay for you. Here is Patrick’s Lay today:

Patrick says: “The first two home in the Lingfield Derby trial – SNOW SKY and HARTNELL – both run at Royal Ascot tomorrow (Friday). It looked a weak race to me and it was no surprise that the third and fourth were both tailed off on their next start, while the fifth was third of five in Listed company. In the circumstances SNOW SKY looks worth laying in the King Edward VII Stakes (3.45) and HARTNELL would seem an unlikely winner of the QUEEN’S VASE (5.00).”

RECOMMENDATION:

3:45 Ascot – Snow Sky – LAY

5:00 Ascot – Hartnell – LAY

Get My 3 Selections For Friday At Royal Ascot

My Selection’s for the first day of Ascot are available to everyone who is a subscriber on the Racing Profits Email Selection Service and after 3 winners so far at the meeting, you won’t want to miss tomorrow’s selections.

3 days Days Left to Grab the 50% Discount On The 6 Weeks Trading Training

Remember that until Sunday I am offering a 50% Discount on the entire course, dropping it from the RRP of Β£395 down to Β£195. However once Royal Ascot has finished I will be returning the course to the full price of Β£395 and there will be no exceptions.

You can use this link to take advantage of the June 50% Discount now – 6 Weeks Trading Training – June 50% Discount Offer

Have a great day and back tomorrow for the final day of this years Royal meeting.

oyal Ascot Gold Cup from RacingProfits.net

Royal Ascot Gold Cup – Day 3 – Race Trends, Stats, Tips & Lays

Well our fabulous start to Royal Ascot continued on Day 2 for all of my Racing Profits Email Service subscribers with our first selection Tiggy Wiggy each way in the Queen Mary just missing out in 2nd oyal Ascot Gold Cup from RacingProfits.netat 13/2 and The Fugue winning the Prince of Wales’s Stakes in a course record time beatin ghte short priced favorite Treve, put up at 9/1 in the morning email. So on to Day 3 and some very interesting Group races ahead of us including the highlight of the week the Royal Ascot Gold Cup.

Here are the trends for the four big races for today, the third day of Royal Ascot:

2:30 – Norfolk Stakes – Group 2 – 5f – 2yo only

Here are the top race trends and statistics for the Norfolk Stakes from the past 12 years.

11/11 – Previous winners over 5f
11/11 – Had a RPR of 106+
11/11 – Had at least 1 previous run
10/11 – Won their previous race
10/11 – Had never raced at Ascot before
9/11 – Foaled in March or April
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Windsor last time out
3/11 – Returned a double-figure price
Race Notes

A sprint for 2yo’s The Norfolk is definitely a race to focus on the top 3 / 4 in the market, although only 3 out of the last 11 races were won by the favourite. The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1.

3:05 – Tercentenary Stakes – Group 3 – 1m 2f – 3yo only

Here are the Tercentenary Stakes statistics for the past 12 years.

10/11 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/11 – Had not raced at Ascot before
8/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
7/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
6/11 – Had won over 1m2f before
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Epsom last time out
Race Notes

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

3:45 – Ribblesdale Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 4f – 3yo Fillies only

The big race of Day 2 here are the trends and statistics for the Prince Of Wales stakes:

10/11 – Placed in their previous race
10/11 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
9/11 – Had never raced at Ascot before
9/11 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
7/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
6/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Won by Godolphin
Race Notes

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

4:25 – Gold Cup – Group 1 – 2m 4f – 4yo+

Here are the Gold Cup race trends and stats:

11/12 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
10/12 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
10/12 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
8/12 – Previous Group 1 winners
8/12 – Aged 5 or older
8/12 – Favourites that were placed
8/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Won by the favourite
5/12 – Won by Aidan O’Brien
3/12 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
3/12 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)

Race Notes

Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012.Since 1949 there have been 13 multiple winners of the race.The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Patrick’s Lay Of The Day For Day 3

Each day Patrick Weaver, Racing Editor from the Daily Express, will put up a daily lay for you. Here is Patrick’s Lay today:

LAY TO FOLLOW

Patrick says “Lay is Barley Mow Ascot 3.05

RECOMMENDATION: Lay Barley Mow

Get My 3 Selections For Tomorrow

My Selection’s for day 3 of Ascot are available to everyone who is a subscriber on the Racing Profits Email Selection Service and after 2 winners and a 2nd form the first two days, it is a must read.

6 Days Left to Grab the 50% Discount On The 6 Weeks Trading Training

Remember that until next Sunday I am offering a 50% Discount on the entire course, dropping it from the RRP of Β£395 down to Β£195. Howdver once Royal Ascot has finished I will be returning the course to the full price of Β£395 and there will be no exceptions.

You can use this link to take advantage of the June 50% Discount now – 6 Weeks Trading Training – June 50% Discount Offer