Category Archives for "Aintree"

The Grand National 2013 – Our Final Shortlist – Enjoy Your Day :)

I hope you all enjoyed the Video, I posted during the week, on how to narrow down the field in today’s race. If you have not watched it yet, I have posted it here:

I have run through the entire field for today’s race and narrowed it down to five main contenders for the race.

Chicago Grey – 12/1 – Qualifies for all my main criteria I look for in a horse, has plenty of experience, won nicely at Navan in February and is 9lb lower than when running here last year, when he was unlucky to be brought down when going well. He could well be the first Grey to win since 1961.

Balthazar King – 20/1 – Another who passes all of my criteria for the race with flying colours, he has loads of experience, loads of stamina and is a fantastic jumper. The further plus for him is he is a front runner, so he will probably trade short in running and stay well clear of any fallers who could take him down.

Roberto Goldback – 25/1 – Passes 9 of my 10 criteria, only failing on the carrying of 11st 6lb today – however with the changes to the course and the going I do not feel the weight is going to be as big a part. Certainly over the last few years Don’t Push It won off 11st 5lbs in 2011 and last year Neptune Collonges carried 11st 6lb to victory – so the old rule of horses above 11st 1lb not winning has been broken recently.

On His Own – 12/1 – Has all the credentials to win this and is another who proved himself last year before coming down at Becher’s on the 2nd circuit, he looked to be going as well as any before then. Only had the one run this season, winning a hurdle at Navan in February, as the yard have targeted this race today with him. He has only had 7 races over fences rather than the 10 I like to see for experience but it is hard not to be impressed with everything else.

Colbert Station – 12/1 – Is the choice of AP McCoy over last year’s runner-up who we backed, SunnyHillBoy. He has only had 5 runs over fences in his career but his win of the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December was very impressive and he has followed up with a win over hurdles at Punchestown in February. AP McCoy rode him both times and he is clearly impressed with what he has seen. My main concern here is that he makes it round, as he does not have the chasing experience.

Of the others Seabass did well last year, but is carrying 11st 6lb today, compared to 10st 11lb last year and has not won this season yet, finishing 2nd and 3rd at Fairyhouse, so I could not get involved. I love Teaforthree and would love to see him do well, as we have backed him a few times in the past, but again the form running up to the race and his weight are against him.

There are a number of question marks over some of the other top market contenders, but as always your opinion is what matters and this shortlist narrows down the field for you to dig into the horses left and make your selction – so enjoy your day today and I hope this has helped you.

If you want to join our Email Service for the excitement of the start of the flat season then head over to >>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service and it would be great to have you on board.

 

2013 Grand National Video

Free Video – Finding The Winner Of The 2013 Grand National

I thought I would post up this video which I prepared for the 2010 Grand National.

I used the statistics and trends I share in the video to narrow the field down to include Don’t Push it and Black Apalachi , State of Play and Big Fella Thanks – the top 4 in the race that year.

We used it again in 2011 to help us find Ballabriggs, Oscar Time, State of Play and The Midnight Club.

Then last year we used the same techniques to find Sunnyhill Boy which we backed each way at 20/1 and was grabbed in the final few yards by Neptune Collonges. It also identified Sea Bass and Cappa Bleu for our shortlist – although the winner escaped us for the first ime in 3 years.

Your Video – Picking The Winner of the 2013 Grand National

As you will see I use trends and statistics for the race and share with you my Top 10 tips for narrowing down the field from 40+horses to a more managable shortlist of 6 or 7.

Take the time to use these 10 statistics to narrow down the field and then analyse the form of your remaining shortlist to make your final decision on who to back:

1. Weight – Start with the weights – No winner had carried more than 11st 1lb for 27 years before Don’t Push It in 2011, who carried 11st 5lbs to victory and then last year Neptune Collonges carried 11st 6lb. Also minimum weight – Only 2 horses in the past 20 years have carried the minimum 10st and won. So dismiss all horses over 11st 1lb and carrying the minimum 10st. Still your starting point.

2. Age – The last 22 winners have all been between 8 – 12yrs old. This is the “sweet spot” in a chasers age, they have the maturity and stamina to get round Aintree. Avoid 6 / 7 yr olds pr horses older than 12yrs old.

3. Sex – No mare has won the race since 1951 – avoid mares.

4. Stamina – Must have proven stamina. The past 18 winners have all won a race over 3m or more that season.

5. Experience – Connected to age but the past 22 winners have all run at least 1o times over fences.

6. Greys – Only 2 greys have ever won the National. No Grey since 1961 has won the race.

7. Blinkers – In the past 38 years only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. So avoid horses with blinkers.

8. Betting Odds – As with any handicap, the market is a key indicator. The most likely price of the winner is between 7/1 – 16/1 – particualrly on Good ground. Only heavy conditions tend to upset this statistic, although Neptune Collonges won at 33/1 last year in 2012 just beating Sunnyhill Boy at 16/1. But 16 winners in the last 22years have been in that price range – so this year it will be more than likely.

9. One Win That Season – Non of the last 22 winners had more than one win that season before going on to win the National.

10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the National again in following years – so it is fairly safe to discount previous winners from your shorlist, that included Ballabriggs last year who was 6th and Don’t Push It the year before who was 3rd.

So if you have been ruthless you should have now narrowed the field down from 40 horses to 6 or 7 main contenders for the race.

Join My Subscribers On My Email Service

If you want to join my Email Subscription Service then I will share with you all my selections for the next few days at Aintree, including my final 2 for the big race on Saturday. I have a couple of spots remaining – so head over to the Racing Profits Email Selection Service and subscribe now.

On Saturday Morning I will post up my final shortlist for the 2013 Grand National for you to compare with your own list.

Talk then.

 

 

2012 Grand National – Racing Profits Shortlist For Today’s Race :)

Well I spent last night narrowing down the Grand National field for today’s race from 40 runners down to my Top 6 most likely aintree grand nationalwinners. As always my Email Selection Service Subscribers will get my selection for the race along with my selection for other races today.

I will list the horses by price.

1. Shakalakaboomboom – 14/1 – who could oppose Nicky Henderson in the form he is in at present and Shakalakaboomboom has plenty of experience and stamina and can be a major player.

2. West End Rocker16/1 – was unlucky to be brought down by another horse in last year’s race when going well, has plenty of proven stamina and is a great jumper with 14 chases under his belt he has plenty of experience too. Won here nicely December in the Becher Chase.

3. Killyglen – 18/1 – fell at the 4th last in last year’s National when challenging and was going well, may have slight stamina worries but on his day he can go close. He has 14 chases under his belt and so has plenty of experience.

4. SunnyHillBoy – 20/1 -well handicapped and has plenty of jumping experience, proven stamina with a 3rd in last year’s Irish National at Fairyhouse and won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month in fine style.

5. Giles Cross – 22/1 – a horse who loves to front run, so should stay out of trouble, another with 14 chases to his name and plenty of proven stamina, won the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. May need more testing conditions to be seen at his best but certainly one for the shortlist.

6. Treacle – 25/1 – a bit of a wildcard but ticks all the boxes with 15 chases to his name, proven stamina and a decent 3rd in the Grade 1 Hennessy at Leopardstown in February. Definately has strong place chance if not better.

Of the others:

On His Own and Cappa Bleu are both promising chasers but have only had 6 races over fences each so lack the experience profile of having 10 or more races over fences. The last 20 winners have all had this level of experience.

Synchronised is a real stayer but is now carrying 11st 10lb and has question marks over his jumping at times. Ballabriggs has every chance but would be the first favourite since Red Rum to win back to back nationals and he is also carrying 11st 9llbs today.

The other horse which has come for money this morning is SeaBass ridden by Katy Walsh aiming to be the first female jockey to win the National, the horse has won his last 7 chases but has a real question mark over the trip today, with his last win being over 2m.

What ever you choose – have a great day – enjoy the race and be lucky 🙂

Finding The Winner Of The 2012 Grand National :)

Evening All,

I thought I would post up the video I prepared for last year’s Grand National which helped us find Ballabriggs, Oscar Time, State of Play and The Midnight Club. In 2010 I used this to narrow the field down to include Don’t Push it and Black Apalachi , State of Play and Big Fella Thanks – the top 4.

In the video I analyse all the stats for the race and show you which are my Top 10 tips for narrowing down the field from 40+horses to a more managable shortlist of 6 or 7.

N.B. Don’t forget I will be posting my shortlist here tomorrow by 12pm and giving my Email Subscription Subscribers my own personal selection for the race and for the Aintree Hurdle 🙂 If you are interested in Subscribing you can ind all the details here>>Email Selection Service

Enjoy the video and talk tomorrow 🙂