Category Archives for "Aintree Grand National"

Grand National Festival 2016 – Day 2 – Ladies Day

Well what a start to the Grand National Festival 2016 today with Cue Card storming home as I had hoped, as he was our max bet on Day 1 and returned 11/8 and a nice profit for all of my subscribers. Annie Power also proved far too strong for the field in the Aintree Hurdle winning by no less than 18 lengths. I hope you enjoyed my Aintree Racecourse Tips write up and I also put up Mendip Express as an each way bet in the Foxhunters and he returned at 11/1 in 3rd. My only frustration on Day 1 was losing both Garde La Victoire and Footpad, who both fell in the first two races.

Remember, if you want to receive exactly what horse I am betting on each day, you can join the email service here – Racing Profits Email Selection Service

Day 2 Preview – Ladies Day

FirstLieutenant-Ain1Again we have four Grade 1 races to look forward to on Day 2 and Limini arrives here, for the 2:15 Novices’  on the back of a comfortable win in the  Mares’ Novices Hurdle at the Festival, she looked to have plenty of improvement in her and will love the softer conditions. However, she is back in with the boys and this looks a tougher contest with Buveur D’Air putting in such a strong run in the Supreme Novice Hurdle behind stablemate Altior and the mighty Min. Agrapart has been laid out for this race, missing Cheltenham and will come here fresh, again well proven on soft ground he will be a major contender.

Next up we have the Mildmay Novices Chase and Blaklion was the winner of the RSA Chase and the way he saw off Shaneshill and More Of That was very impressive, if you fancy him then don’t take the  11/4 grab 10/1 from Betbright below or here – Blaklion 10/1 Offer. That was probably stronger form than the Grade 3 Handicap that Un Temps Pour Tout won, but the 7 length win was more impressive and he earned the right to step up in class to this level, however he is not a horse who seems to put two strong runs back to back, so is difficult to trust. One word sums up the Melling Chase this year and that is Vautour, try as I might to find an angle to oppose him, the likes of Al Ferof, God’s Own and Vibrato Valtat simply do not have the guns to beat him and this will be similar to Annie Power with a Willie Mullins winner.

BetBright-Friday-Banner

The final Group 1 of Day 2 is the Sefton Novices Hurdle and it is a wide open race now that Yanworth has been taken out and Ballydine heads the market, although his 2nd to Barters Hill at Doncaster was done no favours by Barters Hill only managing 4th at the Festival in the Albert Bartlett. Gangster also blew out in the Albert Bartlett back in 7th, however this softer ground will suit and he can get back on track after that race. My pick for the race would be Bellshill  who can bounce back to form after a disappointing run in the Supreme Novices, but he is a horse who loves softer ground and will also appreciate a flatter track such as Aintree, as he showed when finishing 2nd in last years Champion Bumper here. At a bigger price is Brian Ellison’s Tomingerry  who is a winning Irish point to pointer and although from a smaller yard he has done nothing wrong so far, winning every one of his races, including two novice hurdles and two bumpers. He deserves his chance at this level and could offer some each way value at a decent price.

Enjoy Day 2 and I will be back tomorrow, to share with you the video I recorded which shows you how to narrow down the field of the Grand National to the main 4/5 contenders – you won’t want to miss it.

 

Aintree Grand National Festival 2016 – Day 1

Well it is only a few weeks since the end of the Cheltenham Festival and we are getting ready for the three day Aintree Grand National Festival 2016 and all the build up to the Crabbies Grand National on Saturday.

Personally it is always a profitable meeting for me and although many of the winners from the Festival tend to come here and fail to impress, it is a meeting which makes the punters motto that “losses are merely lent” come true. There have been many a horse I have backed at the festival who have come to Aintree and more than redeemed themselves and this year looks like being no exception.

Aintree Day 1 Preview

Day 1 starts with no less than four Grade 1’s for us to enjoy. If you want my full race preview for each race then make sure you check out Aintree Racecourse Tips where I have just finished writing a preview of all 7 races.

I have a number of bets lined up for my subscribers on Day 1 of the meeting and I will be sharing these on the Racing Profits Email Selection Service tomorrow morning.

The opening race of the meeting is very interesting with Arzal heading here and skipping Cheltenham, Sizing John arriving on the back of a a decent 2nd behind Douvan in the Arkle and the unlucky Garde La Victoire who came down in the JLT at the festival and is one of those which I feel could bounce back here at Aintree.

Solwit and Paul Carberry (right) winning The John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle from Holywell (centre) Pic Dan Abraham - racingfotos.com Aintree 6.4.13

The Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle is next up and it is hard to get away from what Ivanovich Gorbatov achieved when winning the Triumph hurdle at the festival, however he was well beaten by Footpad at Leopardstown earlier in the year and I could see the Triumph form being reversed in softer conditions. I also wonder if Sceau Royal is far too big a price at 20/1 and could bounce back from a showcker in the Triumph. There are plenty of alternatives which offer more value than the favourite in this.

The Betfred Bowl Chase is the chance for another of my big bets at the Festival to redeem himself in Cue Card, who I am still convinced would have been with Don Cossack if not beaten him in the Gold Cup without coming down. I just can not see Djakadam or Don Poli having enough to beat him in this race.

Finally Annie Power heads to Aintree and I was at Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle, and can testify that the way she powered up the hill was very impressive, however she is stepping up markedly in trip, on softer ground and at a track she has not run at, so I will not be taking the price on her in this. I have an alternative bet which will pay far more.

More Crazy Offers From The Bookies

As with Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival, it is crazy season for the bookmakers again with their offers and this is the one I think is well worth taking advantage of for Aintree Day 1:

BetBright-CueCard-Thursday

 

 

 

 

A cracking offer and if you have not got on board yet then grab it now. Enjoy Day 1 and I will be back with my preview for Day 2 – Ladies Day tomorrow.

Have a great day,

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Aintree Grand National

Finding The Winner Of The Haydock Grand National Trial 2016

With the clock ticking down until the 2016 Cheltenham Festival which is now less than a month away, we also had the weights revealed for this year’s Grand National on Tuesday, with Many Clouds having to carry top weight of 11st 10lb to defend his crown on 9th April. One race we all need to keep an eye on is tomorrow’s Grand National Trial at Haydock Park.

On Saturday, we’ll witness a trio of cracking showpieces including the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and Betfair Ascot Chase at Ascot, not to mention the race we’re concentrating on here – the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Aimed to give punters early clues as to who they should back in the major Aintree event itself which is two months away on April 9th, what we’ve seen in yesteryear is exactly NONE of the winners of the Grand National Trial going on to win the major event itself since 1980.

Saturday 20th February 2016 – Grand National Trial – Ascot

JUMP 1While drawing clues from the Grand National Trial has proved difficult in regards to selecting the Grand National winner thus far, finding the winner of the Trial event itself may prove a little easier.

Four times out of 13 Grand National Trial races, the winning horse had ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out and that is true of Kerry Lee’s Mountainous with the 11yo the shortest priced to succeed on Saturday afternoon.

Having beat off second-placed Firebird Flyer by two-and-three quarter lengths in the 3m5f110y Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on January 9th, Mountainous is around 7/2 to claim glory in the 2:40pm Grand National Trial.

Cloudy Too is second favourite with the bookies at the moment and boasts the benefit of having romped home round this very course in a 3m24y back on January 23rd.

Winning by 15 lengths on that occasion, Sue Smith’s 10yo should be able to handle himself this time around too.

Key Stats For The Grand National Trial

13 times out of 13 Grand National Trial races, the winning horse was UK trained
13 times out of 13 race, the winning horse had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12 times out of 13 races, the finning horse had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had finished in the top three last time out
11 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was aged 10 or younger
10 times out of 13 races, the winning horse had raced within the last seven weeks
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse returned a double-figure price in the betting
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse carried 11-0 or less
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse came from outside the top three in the betting
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was aged 9 or younger
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse finished in the top two last time out
9 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was rated 135 or higher
7 times out of 13 races, there’s been unplaced favourites
6 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won last time out
6 times out of 13 races, the winning horse went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was Irish-bred
4 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won by exactly 15 lengths
4 times out of 13 races, the winning horse ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse won with 11-12 in weight
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was trained by Lucinda Russell
2 times out of 13 races, the winning horse was the favourite

Enjoy the race and don’t forget to comment below on your fancy.

Racing Profits Shortlist Of Horses For The 2015 Crabbies Grand National

As promised here is my shortlist for today’s Crabbies Grand National 2015.

The first four are the horses I have been following towards the race from a form point of view and the 2nd four are the horses which fit my statistical / race trends narrowing of the field as we showed you in the “How to find the winner of the Grand National” video

The Form Picks

The market has this pretty much spot on with our four form picks for the race as follows:

1. Rocky Creek – traveled as well as anything in last year’s race and although people have questioned his ability to stay the trip, as the reason he faded last year, we feel it was more the softer conditions. He has been laid out for this race by the Nicholl’s camp and is joint top of our shortlist. Available at 10/1

2. Balthazar King – we love this horse and he has won so many races for us over the past few years, that he owes us nothing. But he followed a gutsy win in the Cross-Country at the Cheltenham Festival last year with a superb 2nd in this race. The Hobbs yard have deliberately missed the Festival this year to make sure he comes here fresh and ready for the challenge. If we had to back one horse for today’s race it would be Balthazar each way at 12/1

3. The Druids Nephew – has improved so much since joining Neil Mulholland and his win at Cheltenham shows he is in the form of his life. He jumps well and has stamina to burn. So we had to have him on our list. Again we would go Each Way at 14/1

4. Cause Of Causes – the winner of the 4m Toby Balding Chase at the Festival, has come to his peak at exactly the right time and offers superb value at 20/1. Make no mistake he can win this and conditions will be perfect for him. Grab the 20/1 Each Way here

Sorry to all of you Shutthefrontdoor fans but I can’t have him at the price, he is far too short now, for what he has done and we have a number of doubts about him. Yes, have a sentimental bet on him and AP McCoy winning the Grand National again and retiring today. If he wins no-one would be happier than us for AP.

The Race Trends / Stats Picks

We know that plenty of you loved the “How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National” video and will have gone through the card deleting horses who do not fit the criteria and you should be left with 4 horses who fit the criteria perfectly. All four are huge prices but as the past few years have shown, this does not stop them winning :

The four are:

Saint Are – an interesting 9yo from Tom George, he has actually won at Aintree twice in his career and the manner in which he won at Catterick in February over 3m 1f by 7 lengths certainly does not rule him out of a surprise win here. Worth a look at 33/1

Royale Knight – last year’s winning trainer Dr Richard Newland’s second entry, along with Pineau De Re last year’s winner. Royale Knight won at Sedgfield over 3m 6f in October and has followed up with a 3rd and 2nd over shorter trips. This step back up in trip will suit and another who can not be overlooked at the price. 33/1 is too big.

Dolatulo – Warren Greatrex won the World Hurdle with Cole Harden and Dolatulo won a Grade 3 Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day, so even at the price of 66/1, an in form trainer and Grade 3 winning horse can not be overlooked. Check out the 66/1 here

Portrait King – the final one of the four is available at 80/1 but he won a decent Handicap Chase at Punchestown in January and followed that with a 2nd place in the Grand National trial race at Punchestown. A strong jumper and plenty of stamina does not rule him out of this, although the ground may be a little too fast for him. Check out the 80/1 here

Now place your bets & enjoy the race !!

The rest is up to you, now you have your shortlist, you decide which ones you are going to back and how. I would recommend multiple bets covering 3/4 horses. A couple of the big outsiders and a couple of the form picks, all each way and try to get at least 5 places (See Below)

The offer I recommend is being run by newcomer Titanbet – They are paying out on 5 places in today’s race and offering Money Back if your horse falls before the 9th fence – so you are at least guaranteed you get a run for your money 🙂

Check out the offer here – TitanBet Grand National Offer

TitanBet Grand National Offer 2015

 

Finding The Winner Of The Aintree Grand National 2015

How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National 2015

I recorded this video How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National a few years ago for my You Tube Channel. However, the statistics we use to narrow down the field to the big race on Saturday, are just as effective now. Take your time to watch the video through and then when we have the final declarations tomorrow afternoon, work your way through the field and make yourself a shortlist of the main contenders.


As you can see the key is to use the wealth of historical data, race trends and statistics to narrow down the field from 40 horses to the key contenders for the race each year. This is my favourite method to approach the race each year and some years I have had a list of 6 horses with four of them filling the top 4 places. So it is worth the effort.

Here are my Top 10 Tips for Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2015 :

1. Weight – Look at the Top Weight – Winners generally carry less than 11st 1lb. Over the past 30 years there have only been two winners to carry more. Don’t Push It in 2010 and Neptune Collonges in 2012. Minumum Weight of 10 st – Only 2 winners in the past 25 years have carried the minimum 10 st – so again you can safely exclude any horses on minimum weight.
2. Age – The sweet spot for a winner’s age is between 8 – 12yrs old. All of the past 25 winners have fallen in this age group. Over the past 5 years the race has been dominated by 10 / 11 yo. Avoid Younger horses of 6 / 7 yrs old, as they do not tend to have the experience or stamina to win the race. So dismiss all horses under 8yrs old or older than 12yrs old.
3. Sex – The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 – so avoid female horses.
4. Stamina – Proven stamina – the past 20 winners have all won a race over 3m or more in that season. Even Mon Mome, the 100/1 winner in 2009 had won a race over 3m in December 2008.
5. Experience – Naturally horses with more experience do well at Aintree, as the jumping test demands it. All of the last 25 winners have run at least 10 times over fences before competing in the Grand National. Check back in the horse form and make sure they have at least 10 chase runs.
6. Greys – Only 2 grey horses in the history of the Grand National have won the race. The last was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
7. Blinkers – In the past 40 yrs only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. Comply or Die in 2008 and Earth Summit in 1998. So avoid horses with blinkers.
8. Odds – The market tends to get the race correct. Particularly when there has been little rain and the ground is good. The big priced winners tend to come when the ground is soft and it becomes a real stamina test. Focus on the 7/1 – 16/1 price range in the market – 17 winners from the past 25 years have come from this price range.
NOTE: This stat has been overturned in the past 3 years, although 2 of those years were on softer ground – with Neptune Collonges in 2012 at 33/1, Auroras Encore 2013 at 66/1 and Pineau De Re in 2014 at 25/1. So the odds on the 2015 winner to be over 16/1 in the market are slim, particualarly with the forecast Good ground.
9. One Win – Only 1 horse of the last 25 winners have recorded more than one win in the season, that was Ballabriggs the 2011 winner. So you can safely discount horses with multiple wins that season.
10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the Grand National more than once, so any returning winners can be discounted from your shortlist.
So go through the list of runners tomorrow afternoon or on Saturday morning and put a line through each of them if they do not fit the criteria. Be ruthless and see what you have left on your list at the end. You will be surprised.

Enjoy the big race and make sure you check back here to www.RacingProfits.net on Saturday when I will reveal our shortlist of horses for the Grand National.