Category Archives for "Aintree Grand National"

[VIDEO] Secret To Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2017

I recorded this video How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National a few years ago for my You Tube Channel. However, the statistics we use to narrow down the field to the big race today, are just as effective now.

Take your time to watch the video through and work your way through the field and make yourself a shortlist of the main contenders.


As you can see the key is to use the wealth of historical data, race trends and statistics to narrow down the field from 40 horses to the key contenders for the race each year. This is my favourite method to approach the race each year and some years I have had a list of 6 horses with four of them filling the top 4 places. So it is worth the effort.

Here are my Top 10 Tips for Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2017 :

1. Weight – Look at the Top Weight – Winners generally carry less than 11st 1lb. Over the past 30 years there have only been two winners to carry more. Don’t Push It in 2010 and Neptune Collonges in 2012. Minimum Weight of 10 st – Only 2 winners in the past 25 years have carried the minimum 10 st – so again you can safely exclude any horses on minimum weight.
2. Age – The sweet spot for a winner’s age is between 8 – 12yrs old. All of the past 25 winners have fallen in this age group. Over the past 5 years the race has been dominated by 10 / 11 yo. Avoid Younger horses of 6 / 7 yrs old, as they do not tend to have the experience or stamina to win the race. So dismiss all horses under 8yrs old or older than 12yrs old.
3. Sex – The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 – so avoid female horses.
4. Stamina – Proven stamina – the past 20 winners have all won a race over 3m or more in that season. Even Mon Mome, the 100/1 winner in 2009 had won a race over 3m in December 2008.
5. Experience – Naturally horses with more experience do well at Aintree, as the jumping test demands it. All of the last 25 winners have run at least 10 times over fences before competing in the Grand National. Check back in the horse form and make sure they have at least 10 chase runs.
6. Greys – Only 2 grey horses in the history of the Grand National have won the race. The last was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
7. Blinkers – In the past 40 yrs only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. Comply or Die in 2008 and Earth Summit in 1998. So avoid horses with blinkers.
8. Odds – The market tends to get the race correct. Particularly when there has been little rain and the ground is good. The big priced winners tend to come when the ground is soft and it becomes a real stamina test. Focus on the 7/1 – 16/1 price range in the market – 17 winners from the past 25 years have come from this price range.
NOTE: This stat has been overturned in the past 3 years, although 2 of those years were on softer ground – with Neptune Collonges in 2012 at 33/1, Auroras Encore 2013 at 66/1 and Pineau De Re in 2014 at 25/1. So the odds on the 2015 winner to be over 16/1 in the market are slim, particualarly with the forecast Good ground.
9. One Win – Only 1 horse of the last 25 winners have recorded more than one win in the season, that was Ballabriggs the 2011 winner. So you can safely discount horses with multiple wins that season.
10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the Grand National more than once, so any returning winners can be discounted from your shortlist.
So go through the list of runners tomorrow afternoon or on Saturday morning and put a line through each of them if they do not fit the criteria. Be ruthless and see what you have left on your list at the end. You will be surprised.

My Top 5 2017 Shortlist

Here are the horses that I have on my shortlist, after going through this process.

Definitly Red 12/ 1 – A well supported Favourite for this years race and has won over 3m 2f and 3m this season – so plenty of stamina.

Blaklion 14/1 – He is all about stamina and finished 2nd to Vieux Lion Rouge and 3rd to Definitly Red this season. Weighted to reverse these results.

Vieux Lion Rouge 14/1  – another confirmed stayer after winning over 3m 4f and 3m 2f on his last two starts.

Cause Of Causes 18/1 – won over 3m 6f at the Cheltenham Festival in the Glenfarclas Cross Country – so has experience of the fences.

Highland Lodge 28/1 – won the Becher Chase here in 2015 and then finsished 2nd to Vieux Lion Rouge here in December.

Enjoy the big race

Attacking Day 1 of The Aintree Festival

I love the Aintree Festival nearly as much as I do The Cheltenham Festival, it is not as pure for the jumps racing fan, but the atmosphere and the mix of great Grade 1 action with the unique Merseyside crowd can not help but grab your attention and not let go until the big race on Saturday, the Grand National.

As a betting medium, it is the chance for some of those big bets we placed at Cheltenham to make amends, for just missing out and also a chance to take on some of the short priced favourites who performed well at the Festival but, after a long season, can often flop here. Again, course knowledge is so important, and Aintree is a pancake flat track, with the Mildmay course, where the majority of the races are held, being quite a tight oval. So if your horse did not handle Cheltenham then it can often bounce back three weeks later at Aintree.

Remember, if you want to know my personal back bets each day you can join the Racing Profits Email Selection Service where I share them exclusively.

Getting A Good Start On Day 1

I find Day 1 to be one of the best betting days at Aintree, with four Grade 1 races. This year is no exception and there are some short priced favourites heading out today, after strong runs at Cheltenham.

First Lieutenant and Bryan Cooper (no 2) winning The Betfred Bowl Chase from Menorah (blue) Pic Dan Abraham - racingfotos.com  Aintree 4.4.13Top Notch is interesting in the 1:45pm after his 2nd to Yorkhill in the JLT, but Frodon has been laid out for this race and missed Cheltenham all together and the super consistent Cloudy Dream has plenty to offer in opposition, so it is no cake walk for the favourite.  It is hard to oppose Defi Du Seil in the Juvenile Hurdle at 2:20pm, who we backed at the Festival in the Triumph Hurdle and this looks a weaker race than that, so he should win this going away, although at the price I would not get involved.

The Betway Bowl at 2:50pm is a really interesting race, with Cue Card returning after a fall in the Gold Cup, like he did to win this last year, but he was not going well at the time and I have gone for another bet in this race at far more attractive odds.

Another short priced favourite in the Aintree Hurdle at 3:25pm in Buveur D’Air, an impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle but with questions to answer, as far as this step up to 2m 4f and I am going to have a small bet on THE NEW ONE who does not have the pace for 2m at the very top level and I had hoped would be sent to the World Hurdle at The Festival, but this trip will really suit at a course he loves.

I have sent out my email with my two main bets of Day 1 on to my subscribers, if you want to know my personal back bets each day you can join the Racing Profits Email Selection Service where I share them exclusively.
 

 

The Grand National 2016 – Race Trends & Stats – Final Shortlist

I hope you all enjoyed the Video, I posted during the week, on how to narrow down the field in The grand National 2016. If you have not watched it yet, I have posted it here:

I have run through the entire field for today’s race and narrowed it down to five main contenders for the race, who pass all the race trends and stats, as you can see we have some big prices still in the race:

Saint Are – 18/1 – last year’s runner-up is a strong statistical pick, passing all the criteria including winning at Doncaster in February over 3m. He has to be on your shortlist based on last year’s run and he is carrying 1lb less weight this year too – which with the overnight rain could prove vital. Grab 18/1 from Bet365 Here

Boston Bob – 33/1 – A decent price for the race and winer of the Melling Chase here back in 2014. He bounced back to form on heavy ground at Fairyhouse winning over 3m 1f on heavy ground – so stamina will not be an issue. A cracking each way bet. Grab 33/1 From Paddy Power Here

Unioniste – 40/1 – one of 5 Nicholls runners in the race this year and although I have gone with Silviniaco Conti I can see why people like Unioniste. He is all stamina, as he proved in February up at Kelso when winning on heavy ground over 3m 2f by 9 lengths, he also chased home Many Clouds last time out. He fell in last year’s race but is carrying only 10st 8lb today rather than 11st 6lb last year. A player at a price. Grab 40/1 From Bet365 Here

Kruzhlinin – 40/1 – won at Kempton over 3m in soft conditions in January and had a good run at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap chase. A rock solid jumper who has never fallen in his career and with bags of stamina he could well play a big part today. Grab 40/1 From BetBright Here

Soll – 66/1 – The biggest price but a horse who has proven form around these fences completing the Grand National twice and the Topham Chase aswell. Any horse who can get round these fences three times without falling, has to be on your shortlist. He also won at Sandown in January over 3m on heavy ground. So is certainly a horse capable of out running his odds. Grab a Massive 66/1 From Bet365 Here

Of the other contenders Many Clouds fails on carrying so much weight in 11st 10lb, which is only 2lb more than last year when he won but the ground will be far more testing today and that will count. Silviniaco Conti fails on weight and wearing blinkers, although he is actually running in this race off a mark of 163 rather than the 173 he was running off this time last year and the first time blinkers resulted in him winning last time out at Ascot, which is why he is one of my picks for the race. The Druids Nephew has not won a race over 3m this season although he went close when 2nd at Doncaster last time out, and he itted all the other criteria. The same goes for Holywell who has not won over 3m since 2015 but has gone close including at the Festival when he was 2nd last time out, he also wears blinkers, so failed that trend. The Last Samuri beat The Druids Nephew in that Cheltenham race and that was his 2nd win of the season, so he failed on the multiple winners statistic, although Many Clouds overturned that last year. Money is coming for Shutthefrontdoor who finished 5th last year and is only carrying 10st 11lb this year, he also failed on not having won a race over 3m this season, but that course form and a freshener in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in March when he was pulled up, showed he has been aimed at this race.

There are a number of question marks over some of the other top market contenders, but as always your opinion is what matters and this shortlist narrows down the field for you to dig into the horses left and make your selction – so enjoy your day today and I hope this has helped you.

If you want to join our Email Service for the excitement of the start of the flat season then head over to >>> Racing Profits Email Selection Service and it would be great to have you on board.

 

grand national fences

Aintree Festival – Day 3 – Aintree Grand National Day

Well day 2 was a little more frustrating than the first day at Aintree. We had a couple I really fancied including Dan Skelton’s Virgilio in the first race, who I had put up at 12/1 as a solid each way bet, a 22 runner handicap, so we got paid on 4 places and where did he finish – in 5th 🙂 Then I had my strongest bet of Day 2 which was Blaklion, who had done so well to win the RSA Chase atDon't Push It Winning The Aintree Grand National in 2010 the Festival, but the faster flatter track did not help and he could not match Native River, and he finished in 3rd.

However, it puts into perspective just how difficult it is to find a winner at times when Vautour got turned over at a crazy short price, what annoyed me more was that the only horse that came up in my tracker for today was God’s Own and I dismissed it at 10/1, a costly misjudgement, as I knew he would love the faster ground but did not feel he had the class to match Vautour. At least Buveur D’Air did the business over Limini as I predicted in my www.AintreeRacecourseTips.co.uk race analysis.

Remember, if you want to receive exactly what horse I am betting on each day, you can join the email service here – Racing Profits Email Selection Service

Day 3 Preview – Aintree Grand National Day

Although it is not a race I get involved with heavily, from a betting stand point, The Grand National is what got me into racing and I grew up as a boy watching Red Rum come back year after year. It captured me and I have loved racing ever since. Day 3 starts of with another 22 runner handicap hurdle and again I feel I have a decent priced each way bet in that. We then have three races dominated by short priced favourites.

Treble Heaven

Firstly we have Yorkhill, in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, and my only frustration here is that Yanworth does not get the opportunity to make up for his defeat in the Neptune at the Festival.There certainly is no Yanworth in this field and Yorkhill should win comfortably.

We then have the Maghull Novices’ Chase and Douvan has made the trip over, to follow up his Arkle win. I was at Cheltenham for that run and have got to say it was quite stunning how well he jumped and moved that day. Again there is little to worry him in this race and he will do a similar demolition job.

Finally we have my favourite horse in training at present, alongside Cue Card, and that is Thistlecrack in the Liverpool Stayers Hurdle and on the back of that World Hurdle win and his continual improvement race by race, I really can not see him having another horse within 10 lengths of him in this race.

Despite what happened with Limini and Vautour, I can not see any of the three above being beaten and I would recommend a nice Treble on them to try to make the price a little more attractive.

The Grand National

Aintree Grand NationalWell as for the big race, here is my view. After his recent success at Kelso Many Clouds who re-wrote the record books when winning last year as an eight-year-old under 11st 9lb, looks to have a great chance of being the first horse to do the double since Red Rum. Silviniaco Conti is the class act in the race, having won seven Grade 1 races over fences. He’s won over the Mildmay fences here in the last two years, however there are quistionmarks over the trip and if he can handle these fences, if he can then he could blow these away. Last year’s runner-up Saint Are arrives off the back of a recent win and is slightly better off at the weights. We also like The Druids Nephew who was travelling strongly when falling four out last year,he looked like he would have been in the mix without that. The quirky Holywell was 3rd in the Betfred Bowl here last year, behind Silviniaco Conti and also has strong credentials on form having run a cracker under a big weight at the Cheltenham Festival. The progressive The Last Samuri has shot up the weights recently and although he comes here on a mark of 149 he is still only carryin 10st 8lb on his back. He has been very strongly supported over the past few weeks. Shutthefrontdoor carried 11st 2lb last year and finished 5th, so he has strong claims this year only carrying 10st 11lb. Sire Des Champs is the final one for our shortlist, after his 2nd in the 2013 Gold Cup he has stayed over in Ireland, following a long break from the track, however he is back now and another who is top class when on his A -game. The fact Ruby Walsh has chosen him as his ride speaks volumes and he is certainly one to watch in the race.

So who will I be going for – well I will be backing Silviniaco Conti and The Druids Nephew both each way.

NOTE: As always I will be posting my stat picks, based on the video that I posted earlier, that will be up tomorrow by 11am, so make sure you check back then.

Whatever happens, enjoy the race and the final day of Aintree.

Aintree Grand National

[VIDEO] Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2016

Finding the winner of the Grand National 2016 looks an impossible task, with so many runners, how do you do it ? I recorded this video How To Find The Winner Of The Grand National a few years ago for my YouTube Channel. However, the statistics we use to narrow down the field of the big race on Saturday, are just as effective now.

Take your time to watch the video through and then when we have the final declarations this afternoon, work your way through the field and make yourself a shortlist of the main contenders.


As you can see the key is to use the wealth of historical data, race trends and statistics to narrow down the field from 40 horses to the key contenders for the race each year. This is my favourite method to approach the race each year and some years I have had a list of 6 horses with four of them filling the top 4 places. So it is worth the effort.

Here are my Top 10 Tips for Finding The Winner Of The Grand National 2016 :

1. Weight – Look at the Top Weight – Winners generally carry less than 11st 1lb. Over the past 30 years there have only been 3 winners to carry more. However, since the fences have got slightly easier over the years, this has not been as much of a factor with Don’t Push It in 2010 , Neptune Collonges in 2012 and last year Many Clouds carried 11st 9lb to victory, so you can see why he is so popular this year only carrying 1lb more. Although the ground looks like it could be alot softer than last year and weight could well be a factor.
NOTE: Also look at the Minimum Weight of 10 st – Only 2 winners in the past 26 years have carried the minimum 10 st – so again you can safely exclude any horses on minimum weight.
2. Age – The sweet spot for a winner’s age is between 8 – 12yrs old. All of the past 26 winners have fallen in this age group. Over the past few years the race has been dominated by 10 / 11 yo, Many Clouds was 8yrs old when he won it last year.
NOTE: Avoid Younger horses of 6 / 7 yrs old, as they do not tend to have the experience or stamina to win the race. So dismiss all horses under 8yrs old or older than 12yrs old.
3. Sex – The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951 – so avoid female horses.
4. Stamina – Proven stamina – the past 20 winners have all won a race over 3m or more in that season. Even Mon Mome, the 100/1 winner in 2009 had won a race over 3m in December 2008.
5. Experience – Naturally horses with more experience do well at Aintree, as the jumping test demands it. All of the last 26 winners have run at least 10 times over fences before competing in the Grand National. Check back in the horse form and make sure they have at least 10 chase runs.
6. Greys – Only 2 grey horses in the history of the Grand National have won the race. The last was Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
7. Blinkers – In the past 40 yrs only 2 horses have won wearing blinkers. Comply or Die in 2008 and Earth Summit in 1998. So avoid horses with blinkers.
8. Odds – The market tends to get the race correct. Particularly when there has been little rain and the ground is good. The big priced winners tend to come when the ground is soft and it makes the race even more of a stamina test. Focus on the horses priced at 25/1 or less in the market – 20 winners from the past 26 years have come from this price range.
NOTE: This stat has been overturned twice in the past 5 years, although both of those years were on softer ground – with Neptune Collonges in 2012 at 33/1, Auroras Encore 2013 at 66/1. So the odds on the 2016 winner to be over 25/1 in the market are slim, particularly with the forecast ground.
9. One Win – Only 2 horse of the last 26 winners have recorded more than one win in the season, that was Ballabriggs the 2011 winner and Many Clouds last year’s winner. So you can safely discount horses with multiple wins that season.
10. Previous Winner – Only Red Rum has ever won the Grand National more than once, so any returning winners can be discounted from your shortlist.

So go through the list of runners tomorrow afternoon or on Saturday morning and put a line through each of them if they do not fit the criteria. Be ruthless and see what you have left on your list at the end. You will be surprised.

Enjoy the big race and make sure you check back here to www.RacingProfits.net on Saturday when I will reveal my shortlist of horses for the Grand National.