All Posts by Richard Mawer

PLanning A Profitable betting Strategy in 2016

2016 Haldon Gold Cup At Exeter – Race Anlaysis

PLanning A Profitable betting Strategy in 2016

Well it is rare to get such a decent race mid-week and the 2016 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter today is a real early season treat.

The market for today’s race is headed by Garde La Victoire who has a run under his belt already this season, with an emphatic win at Ffos Las last month in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. He is back over fences today and the main concern has to be his falls at Cheltenham and Aintree last term in Grade 1 company. However, prior to that he won three chases comfortably, so hopefully he will get a clear round today, but I could not be taking 7/4 on him.

Paul Nicholl’s targets this race and won it last year with Vibrato Valtat beating the likes of God’s Own, Sire De Grugy and Third Intention. He is pinning this year’s hopes on the 2015 Champion Chase winning Dodging Bullets who took his time to get back to fitness last season after an injury delayed his comeback. However, his final run at Sandown in the Celebration Chase, where he finished 3rd behind Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux was a sign that he was coming back to near his best and the break will have done him good.

Harry Fry’s Presenting Arms is becoming a nearly horse and creeping up the handicap, now running off a mark of 145. He will be race fit after runs at Market Rasen and Cheltenham already this season, both finishing in 2nd place. He is a strong contender, but the front two should have too much for him today.

Dan Skelton has had 7 winners in the past 2 weeks and Pain Au Chocalat has won twice for the yard over fences since moving from Alan King last year plus a 3rd in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Aginthe concern is his fall at Ayr in April. He is only 5yo and should have plenty more to come over fences, the first time tongue tie today could also be a major plus.

I would recommmend focusing on the top of the market for today’s race and I have shared my selection with my Racing Profits Email Subscription Service subscribers this morning, whichever way you go – enjoy the race.

Jump To It – Are You Ready To Make Money This Jumps Season ?

Well after a quiet October so far, we had a great end to the flat season yesterday with Champions Day at Ascot. It was particularly satisfying for me, as I had put up Minding as a main bet for my Racing Profits Email Subscribers yesterday morning at 5/2 in the morning and she landed Queen Elizabeth II nicely, fending off the late challenge from Ribschester.

All Focus Now Switches To The Jumps Until April

Cheltenham Festival 2016

Although we have a few more flat meetings in October and November, including the Racing Post Trophy and November Handicap at Doncaster. This weekend always marks the time I switch my attantion fully to the national hunt season ahead and I have been spending the weekend going through all the horses I am tracking in my Racing Post tracker and removing the majority of my flat horses, other than those which I am going to track on the all-weather and also a few 2yo’s who I want for the early part of the 2017 season.

We have had the first jumps meeting of the season at Kempton Park this afternoon and I was looking forward to seeing My Tent or Yours making his seasonal re-appearance after his huge effort at Cheltenham in the Champion Hurdle, although he was a late withdrawal and so we will need to wait a little longer for that, but I backed stablemate Hargam instead and made a nice profit on that bet.

Next weekend we have the Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham kicking off and then we are into November and the first big jumps meeting at Ascot, Sandown and of course the Paddy Power Open Meeting back at Cheltenham, Ilve this time of year and as many of you know – the next 5 months are my most proitable of the year on the back bets.

Where To Focus Your Attention When Backing At This Time Of Year To Make Profit

I am always sharing advice with my subscribers on how to adjust their “betting strategy” month by month, taking into account seasonal changes and what angles are the most profitable at different times of the year.

My strategy when backing horses at the start of the jumps season and through to Xmas is to specialise in tracking novice hurdlers and focusing on the major meetings. By focusing on horses you know in major meetings and then trying to identify the next superstars of the season going through to the major festivals after Xmas, you can build some nice profits.

Novice Hurdles Are A License To Print Money If You Know What You Are Looking For

I know all the jumps yards and how they prepare their new novice hurdlers, which yards will have them ready to win on their first few runs and which yards will need a few runs before they are ready to win. I watch every novice hurdle live every day and then re-watch them all back in the evening making notes on all the horses in the top 4 or 5, what running style they have, what ground they like and what courses they do well at. I then add these notes to my tracker, to alert me when they are next running. I then let my Email Subsribers know each morning what I am backing and why.

You can see why my Racing Profits Email Service is so popular at this time of year and over the next few months, plus why it is so hard to get a place and why I strictly limit them to only 50 people per month.

I currently have 5 spots available on my Racing Profits Email Subscription Service – So if you are seious about making money from backing horses over the next few months, check it out and subscribe here Racing Profits Email Service , while you still can. Find out why so many people love my service and come back month after month.

Look forward to working with you over the coming months and bring on the jumps 🙂

York Ebor Festival

York Races – Ebor Festival 2016 – Betfred Ebor

Well another great day of racing yesterday, although the rain changed the going significantly on the Knavesmire and this played right to Mecca’s Angel’s strength as she powered home in the Nunthorpe to win by 2 lengths. Quest For More also enjoyed the softening conditions to win the stamina sapping Lonsdale Cup, given a positive ride from the front he was not for catching.

On to the final day of the 2016 Ebor Festival and the two key races for me are the Gimcrack and the Ebor. Here are the big race stats and trends for each race and also my analysis of how the races could pan out.

3.10 – Gimcrack Stakes – Group 2 – 6f

13/13 – Won just 1-2 times before
13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Won just once before
8/13 – Foaled in March or later
8/13 – Had won over 6f before
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – Won by a March foal
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas
2/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/13 – Winning favourites

The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

Race Analysis: Although a lack of experience appeared to cost Blue Point at Goodwood when he was beaten by Mehmaas, he was three lengths ahead of Intelligence Cross and should have few problems confirming the form. Mokarris was well beaten in the Coventry at Ascot but easily won a Listed race at Newbury last month and deserves another crack at this level. William Haggas hasn’t rushed Mubtasim and he was still green when winning at Haydock but he looks a colt of enormous potential and is entered in all the top juvenile races over 6f in the autumn.

3.45 – Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) – 1m 6f

14/14 – Carried 9-4 or less
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Won from a double-figure stall
11/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/14 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/14 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Had run at York before
5/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/14 – Winning favourites

Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996

The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 23/1

Race Analysis: The highlight of the week The Ebor and what a competitive race we have this year and our fancy is She Is No Lady who is a strongly built filly and almost collared Sandro Botticelli in a Listed race at Sandown last month over 2m yet had the pace to win over this trip on Polytrack earlier and also finish second over 1m4f at Goodwood. The rain has helped her case and she should go close as she’s well drawn and Dettori takes over the reins. Battersea has been highly tried since winning at Meydan in February and has the class to play a part now fitted with a first time hood to keep him calm at 20/1 he could well be far too big a price. Antiquarium beat Seamour a length and a quarter in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle with Seismos seventh. Godolphin won this in 2012 with Willing Foe and the Boys In Blue are also represented by recent Doncaster winner Oceanographer. Heartbreak City won over 2m at this meeting last year and has been in good form over hurdles this summer. Whichever way you go – enjoy the race and good luck.

York Ebor Festival

York Ebor Festival 2016 – Day 3 – Nunthorpe Stakes Day

Well it was a day of shocks yesterday at the York Ebor Festival with first Fair Eva only managing 3rd in the Lowther Stakes and then Seventh Heaven overturning Found in the Yorkshire Oaks. Although personally that was a great result, as I had put Seventh Heaven up to my Racing Profits Email Service subscribers in the morning at 4/1 and we made a nice +10pts profit on the bet.

On to today and Day 3 is always a day of contrast, as far as the major races go, with the long distance Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 2m and the cavalry charge that is the Group 1 sprint the Nunthorpe Stakes over 5f. Both renewals this year a full of quality horses and open looking affairs. Hopefully the big race stats and trends below plus my race analysis will help you make sense of them both.

2:30 – Lonsdale Cup – Group 2 – 2m – Stats & Race Trends

11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Had 4 or more career wins
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Favourites placed
9/12 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/12 – Won a Listed or better class race before
9/12 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
9/12 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/12 – Had run at York before (6 won)
6/12 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/12 – Favourites to win
3/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
3 of the last 8 winners were Irish bred

The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

Race Analysis: An interesting Lonsdale Cup as most of the field ran in the Goodwood Cup last month and runner-up Pallasator looks sure to make a bold bid on that form, as he finishing ahead of Wicklow Brave and Quest For More with Suegioo and Curbyourenthusiasm well beaten. Clever Cookie was fourth in this race last season and narrowly beat Curbyourenthusiasm in the Yorkshire Cup here in May. He’s had a short rest since running below par in the Ascot Gold Cup. Don’t dismiss Trip To Paris who hasn’t won since the Ascot Gold Cup last year but competed in top international races for the remainder of the year. He made an encouraging reappearance over too short a trip at Newbury last month and is taken to finish a lot closer than last year’s fifth.

3:40 – Nunthorpe Stakes – Group 1 – 5f – Stats & Race Trends

12/14 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Came from stall 11 or lower
11/14 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
10/14 – Favourites to finish in the top 4
10/14 – Had run at the course before
9/14 – Winning distance less than a length
9/14 – Were previous Group race winners
8/14 – Had 5 or more runs already that season
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 5 of last 7)
5/14 – Placed horses from stall 11
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (3rd in 2003 & 2012)

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 17/1

Race Analysis: It is one of the most open Nunthorpe’s for a number of years and as the final stat above shows with the average SP of the winner being 17/1 over the past 14 runnings, nothing is ever certain in a 20 runner 5f sprint at York. However Mecca’s Angel won the race last year and is back to defend his title, on the back of a blistering win at the Curragh. He loves York and we have to have him on side again in this. Yalta is a lightly raced Mark Johnson 2yo who has been thrown straight in here on the back of a superb Molecomb win at Glorious Goodwood and with more progression likely we could be looking at a top class sprinter. Limato is another to add to your shortlist after his July Cup romp at Newmarket where he won by 2 lengths another on the upgrade who will love the track and conditions. Make sure you also check out those at bigger prices such as Easton Angel, Take Cover and Muthmir who all hold solid claims on the race.

Enjoy Day 3 and I will be back with my analysis of Day 4 tomorrow.


York Ladies Day - Ebor Festival

Ebor Festival 2016 – Day 2 – York Ladies Day

I think that Day 2 of the Ebor Festival is one of my favourite days of the week, as it is York Ladies Day and the two feature races The Lowther and the Yorkshire Oaks, always feature the best fillies of the season. Today is no exception with horses such as Found, Fair Eva and Seventh Heaven on show today.

As with yesterday I will share the race stats and trends for the two big races, plus my analysis of each race.

2:30 Lowther Stakes – Group 2 – 6f

13/14 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
13/14 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
13/14 – Had won at least once before
13/14 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
12/14 – Had not run at York before
11/14  – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
11/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Winning distance 1 length or more
8/14 – Had won over 6f before
7/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

RACE ANALYSIS: The Lowther this year is all about Frankel’s daughter Fair Eva who won by 4 lengths on debut at Haydock beating Nations Alexandre and could hardly have been more impressive in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot where she beat today’s rival Kilmah by four lengths. Nations Alexandre then bounced back by winning the Solera Stakes at Newmarket last time out and is looking incredible value at around 28/1 for this and at eight runner we would advise a little each way bet on her.

3:40 Yorkshire Oaks – Group 1 – 1m 4f

15/15 – Aged 3 (9) or 4 (6) years-old
15/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/15 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
10/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
9/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
7/15 – Had run at York before (3 won)
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Placed horses from stall 5
7/15 – Winners from stall 5 or 6
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (1 winner)
5/15 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
5/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
4/15 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/15  – Trained by Jim Bolger
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

RACE ANALYSIS: The feature race of Day 2 and The Yorkshire Oaks features last year’s brilliant Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Found who has competed at Group 1 level in her last three races, though her only success since Keeneland was in a Group 3 at the Curragh. The main concern will be the ground, as generally she likes good ground or softer so today’s conditions won’t be ideal. Seventh Heaven had been in fantastic form this year before heading to Epsom for the Oaks where she was clearly unsuited by ground, however she bounced back in emphatic style to win comfortably at the Curragh last time out and there’s more to come from this daughter of Galileo. The lightly-raced Queen’s Trust ran a superb race behind Minding in the Nassau Stakes and will be even better suited by today’s longer trip, so also comes into the reckoning. Endless Time is another for the shortlist, having had a curtailed career but is making up for lost time and has progressed from a Class 3 handicap to landing a Group 2 at Haydock.

Enjoy York Ladies Day and I will talk tomorrow.