Helping You Make Money From UK Horse Racing
The Irish St Leger takes place at the Curragh this Saturday, 11th September. Unlike the other four Irish Racing Classics this race is open to older horses and since 1990 only one horse aged 3 has won the race, that was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win the race 3 more times. Kevin O’Malley has written a free guide for you here
http://racingprofits.net/news/irish-st-leger-2010
Enjoy it guys and go make some money.
Rich
The Irish St Leger takes place at the Curragh this Saturday, 11th September. Unlike the other four Irish Racing Classics this race is open to older horses and since 1990 only one horse aged 3 has won the race, that was the great Vinnie Roe, who went on to win the race 3 more times.
Trends for the past 10 years of the Irish St Leger
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
| W | P | R | |
| 3yo | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4yo | 2 | 8 | 36 |
| 5yo | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6yo+ | 4 | 5 | 19 |
Horses aged 3 or 4 have combined record: 3-11-52
Horses aged 5+ have combined record: 7-8-34
Clearly The Irish St Leger is a race to focus on older horses, seeing that those aged 5 or above have won 7 of the last 10 runnings from just under 40% of the total runners.
Gender
Fillies/mares (1-1-9) have gained 1 win and 1 place from 9 runners, which is about right considering they represented approximately 10.5% of the total runners.
Breeding
8 of 10 winners sired by a horse with a stamina index of 10.6F to 11.3F (1 of 2 exceptions was out of a mare who had won a group 3 over 1M 5F) (Sire index available in RP form)
The last 3 winners were by Sadler’s Wells or a son of Sadler’s Wells.
The last 2 winners were out of a Darshaan mare so thats well worth noting aswell.
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions were 2nd on last start)
8 of 10 winners had previously won at the Curragh (2 exceptions were having their first run here)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F or further
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (both exceptions were dual-listed winners who’d finished in first 3 in a group race)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a group 1 (2 of 4 exceptions were having first run in a group 1, other 2 had finished 4th & 6th in a group 1)
Other Races
Ballyroan Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 5111344 (3-1-7)
Vintage Crop Stakes winner (Roses For The Lady): 111 (3-0-3)
Saval Beg winner (Profound Beauty): 8131 (2-1-4)
Ballycullen Stakes winner (Rajik): 71251 (2-1-5)
Curragh Cup winner (Tactic): 66114 (2-0-5)
Ascot Gold Cup winner (Rite Of Passage): 218 (1-1-3)
Challenge Stakes winner (Profound Beauty): 1764 (1-0-4)
Lonsdale Cup winner (Opinion Poll): 443 (0-1-3)
Princess Of Wales’ Stakes winner (Sans Frontieres): 555 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Ballyroan Stakes last time, finishing 1121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballycullen Stakes last time, finishing 11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Saval Beg, finishing 1212
3 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, finishing 721
3 of 10 winners ran in the Curragh Cup, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Vintage Crop Stakes, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Challenge Stakes, finishing 15
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s Prix Royal Oak, finishing 614
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season’s Lonsdale Cup, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season’s Melbourne Cup, finishing 47
Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 8-9-53
British-trained runners: 2-10-33
All 4 of Dermot Weld’s (4-1-8) wins came from Vinnie Roe winning this race 4 times in a row between 2001 and 2004.
Aidan O’Brien (2-5-16) and John Oxx (2-1-8) have each won 2 of the last 4 renewals of this race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-3) has seen all 3 of his runners in the race in the past 10 years make the frame.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from first 3 in the betting
The highest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 10/1, not a race to be looking for a big outsider.
Favourites (4-5-12) have won 4 of the last 10 but have shown a level stakes loss of 3.28.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years running of the Irish St Leger you are looking for a horse:
Just thought I would share the 10 year trends for the Irish St Leger - Ireland’s last classic on Saturday coming.
Its looks to be a particularly strong renewal. Sans Frontieres would be an interesting contender if he makes the trip. He returned to form this season and easily beat a real nice horse called Laaheb from the Michael Jarvis stable last time out. At 11/2 he could be a good each way option. Tactic is 12/1 and his last run should be forgotten. Highly impressive on occasions this season including a 14 lengths victory at York before a 2 length victory over CD, beating Profound Beauty. That horse is 7/2 favourite for this! But no decisions made as yet, there may not even be a bet in the race from myself. But its a fascinating renewal of the Irish St Leger and you have all the tools you need now to dig out the winner should you choose to have a go.
Aswell as this guide to the Irish St Leger check out my other post on Irish Racing Maiden And Novice Races.
Hi guys, with the Irish Racing jumps season just around the corner I thought I’d give you an insight into how I read these races which I tend to specialise in through the winter. There are two main attractions to these maiden and novice events in Ireland and they are the fact that the races are usually big fields combined with the other that only 2 or 3 horses can win in most cases.
It is relatively easy to discount a large portion of the field with little work if you use Racing Post form to easily weed out the no hopers- you cannot say this for a 25 runner 3m handicap hurdle at Downpatrick. You could look through the form for 24 hours solid, riding the crest of a caffeine high, and still be none the wiser once the headache arrives.
No- its easier to concentrate on a race with a lot of bad horses who can’t win, a handful what I like to call “potential danger” horses and two or three standouts, then you can look at pricing of the race, apply form reading and speed ratings, and come up with a solid value bet. If I find myself questioning my decisions, or second guessing form too much on a selection, I usually move onto another race. The one principle I always stick to is to back only horses that have ran over hurdles. You’ll come across countless bumper horses and flat sorts with high ratings who will be overbet in their maiden hurdles with no hurdle form to note.
The Irish Racing powerhouse stables of Willie Mullins and Noel Meade etc send out many horses in these races and the bookies tend to over-estimate their horses chances as well. To make profit from racing once must think outside the box in order to discover opportunities whereby the bookmaker is clearly underestimating a horse’s chance of winning a race. Make no mistake, the powerful stables have made me nice profits in the past and remain the ones with the best horses, but I also enjoy taking them on throughout the season when I feel the betting market is framed in my favour.
The most important tool I have at my disposal, my eye for form and race reading aside, is speed ratings. For Irish Racing I use only TopSpeed ratings from the Racing Post, simply because there isn’t alot available. Ratings can be view both on a table for each card, or can be viewed on each horses individual form table. I tend to not look at the card table but take note of ratings as I go through the form pages to quickly get an idea of the main players, get a feel for the race. The ratings are remarkably helpful in finding winners. For British racing I have 3 separate sets of ratings to compare to, but there isn’t a lot available for Irish Racing without subscribing to ratings that may not even be helpful- I know Topspeed works though and they work particularly well to find value in novice events. I will write a little article about how to interpret Topspeed ratings compared to RPR ratings and at different distances and courses etc, and how to check the value of the form if the rating is either too good to be true or too low- it’s all quite simple. They are consistently accurate in pinpointing the fastest animals at well-rounded distances i.e- 2m,2m4f,3m…
Irish Racing Maiden Hurdles are generally won by horses who race prominently. Out of a group of 17+ horses, or whatever, the principals in the betting will nearly always be up with the pace. Naturally then, it pays to side with horses that have raced prominently in previous races. Another edge which comes up often is I’ll spot a horse who has clocked a decent speed figure at a longer trip without staying or making all to win, and catch it when he drops back in trip because it will inevitably race prominently and stay better than most of the others….. Ireland is a country that churns out a wealth of riding talent. Every year in Irish Racing there will be one, two maybe three conditional (claiming) jockeys who really catch my eye as stylish and great value to a punter with their claim. I will post up my findings this season as good money can be made from spotting talent early. One Bryan J Cooper who claims 5lbs now from the Dessie Hughes stable has been riding some of the older brigade of riders to sleep this summer, and is one to keep on side this winter, among others.
Another advantage of maiden hurdles in Irish Racing is there are little or no non-runners, with a reserve list in place in case there is one. It’s important to note that Tote pay 4 places for all non handicaps with over 16 runners so that’s worth bearing in mind for your e/w bets.” Best Odds Guaranteed” – music to a punters ear so make sure you have a betting account that offer “BOG”. The best of these would be Paddy Power and Bet365. Sportingbet are also excellent as they offer the best early odds for many of my selections.
The ground at Roscommon went like a swamp today, which meant our bet Ardnavalley was pulled out among others. Minnie Wyse ran ok to finish 4th, but the heavy ground found her out when she needed to be making up ground.
The only meeting tomorrow in Ireland is at Laytown, which is on a beach! I think we’ll refrain from investment here, but there are a couple of nice meetings coming up at the end of the week. It’s just a case of waiting now for the transition from flat to jumps. There’s a few more matters to settle on the flat and then the real fun begins for the long winter ahead. Up and downs are inevitable, excitement is a given and I for one can’t wait to get stuck into the layers in the months ahead. Make sure to tune in and read my articles, news updates and of course get my selections absolutely free.
If you have any questions on Irish Racing, please email us at support@racingprofits.net or complete the contact form to give me any feedback, or ask me any questions or give me ideas for articles you may find helpful in your betting.
Have a great evening and speak soon,
Kev
http://racingprofits.net
Irish Racing Legend
First of all I’d like to say thanks to Richard for taking me on board to share my news, views, race analysis and selections for Irish racing. I’ve been betting on horses for 8 years since the age of 16. Aged 24 now, I’ve established a unique betting strategy which focuses on Novice and Maiden events in Ireland. I rarely have bets in handicaps in Ireland but do like to bet on Graded events under both codes as well as my speciality which is the Novice and Maiden hurdles during the winter.
Keep an eye out for my selections and posts, particularly when there is an Irish meeting the next day. I’ll do my very best to explain my thought process and betting methods as we go along. But rest assured, we’re in for a very exciting winter here at Racing Profits.
Today at Roscommon I have one dutch bet in the 6.35 mares only maiden hurdle. Minnie Wyse is available at 16/1 with Paddy Power- she has had a break since May and has a solid level of hurdles form under her belt, notably when a close 4th behind Golden Sunbird and Spare Shilling at Punchestown back in February, two nice sorts. Ardnavalley has had a busy summer with solid runs in maiden hurdles, including here at Roscommon when 2nd to Waterloo Chateua. She comes from the in-form Jessica Harrington team and has to be respected as a lively contender, available at 11/1 with William Hill or 10/1 with Bet365. I will post up an article later this afternoon to explain Maiden Hurdles and what attracts me to them. This particular race is quite open and therefore I’ve gone for two horses at good prices.
Advice:
Minnie Wyse 1pt e/w @ 16/1 PaddyPower, Ardnavalley 1pt e/w @ 11/1 William Hill
Good luck today,
Kev.
Well another full subscription for September 2010 on the email selections – all 30 places taken again – that is the 6th month in a row.
And what a start with 4 winners from 6 back selections:
Wednesday 1st – Rock My World – ran at Lingfield – advised as a 2pts each way bet at 7/2 in the morning. Won nicely to make a +9pt profit.
Thursday 2nd – Sylvestris – ran at Salisbury – advised at 2 pts each way at 3/1 – played up in the paddock and came in 3rd – losing us 0.5 pt.
Thursday 2nd – Time To Work – ran at Epsom – won nicely beating the strongly fancied odds on favourite Tiger Webb – advised as a 2pt each way bet at 11/4 so a nice + 7pts profit.
Thursday 2nd – Pobs Trophy – ran at Redcar and despite a promising word from the yard and a strong run toward the end of the race he came in unplaced losing us -2 pts.
Friday 3rd – Safari Team – ran at Lingfield – won nicely making every post a winning post – advised as a 2 pt each way bet at a nice 5/1 in the morning making us +12 pts profit.
Friday 3rd – Tick Tock Lover – ran in the evening at Kempton and won nicely making the most of his great draw in the 8 stall and step up in trip to the 1m – advised as a 4 pt win bet in the morning at 9/4 made +9 pts profit.
So the first 3 days has given us a nice +35 pts profit to start the month – with more cracking bets to come.
If you did not manage to get on board this month then drop me an email at richard@racingprofits.net and I will make sure you are on the reserve list for October.
Have a great weekend,
Rich 
Just to let you all know that one of Ireland’s favourite sons – Kevin O’Malley will be joining Racing Profits as a contributor and sharing what he has learned over the years about making money from Irish Racing. I have know Kevin for a while now and know that he has alot to offer in the way of sound betting advice and guidance to betting on Irish Racing.
Kevin is well known on the Forums and Facebook and is fast becoming renowned for his tipping and reading of races in Ireland. I was glad when he accepted my invitation to join us on Racing Profits and share what he knows.
So keep an eye on the Irish Racing News and Tips on the site.
Have a great weekend,
Rich
